比特幣 25 萬美元的預測：現實還是只是白日夢？

比特幣觸及 25 萬美元是一個引人注目的預測，佔據了頭條新聞。如果你在加密領域工作了足夠長的時間，你會看到輝格黨大佬做出天價預測

Bitcoin’s recent surge has sparked bold predictions, including the possibility of the cryptocurrency hitting $250,000. While some might dismiss such predictions as clickbait, this crypto feels different now.

比特幣最近的飆升引發了大膽的預測，其中包括該加密貨幣有可能突破 25 萬美元。雖然有些人可能會將此類預測視為標題誘餌，但這種加密貨幣現在感覺不同了。

Let’s examine the factors driving the latest prediction and explore the economic and institutional landscape that could align to make $250,000 a reality.

讓我們研究一下推動最新預測的因素，並探索可能使 25 萬美元成為現實的經濟和製度格局。

The Setting: How 2024’s Bitcoin Halving Shapes the NarrativeBitcoin’s halvings have served as price catalysts, reducing the number of new coins miners can earn by half. It’s a feature, not a bug, designed to introduce scarcity into the system.

背景：2024 年比特幣減半如何塑造敘事比特幣減半起到了價格催化劑的作用，使礦工可以賺取的新幣數量減少了一半。這是一個功能，而不是一個錯誤，旨在將稀缺性引入系統。

Back in 2012, Bitcoin rose from $12 to over $127. In 2020, it doubled within eight months. And in 2021, BTC hit an all-time high of $68,000. In April 2024, Bitcoin’s most recent halving occurred, dropping mining rewards to 3.125 BTC per block.

早在 2012 年，比特幣就從 12 美元上漲至 127 美元以上。 2020年，八個月內翻了一番。 2021 年，BTC 觸及 68,000 美元的歷史新高。 2024 年 4 月，比特幣最近一次減半，挖礦獎勵降至每塊 3.125 BTC。

But to everyone’s surprise, the resulting gain was modest at best. In the months following the event, Bitcoin only managed to eke out a 7% gain.

但令所有人驚訝的是，最終的收益充其量只是微乎其微。事件發生後的幾個月裡，比特幣僅勉強上漲了 7%。

As we learned the hard way, Bitcoin’s past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. And back then, halvings took place in a relatively isolated ecosystem.

我們透過慘痛的教訓了解到，比特幣過去的表現並不能保證未來的結果。當時，減半發生在一個相對孤立的生態系統中。

Today, Bitcoin is deeply tied to global financial markets, making it vulnerable to broader economic shifts. Some may argue that the halving price uptick was dampened by broader economic instability, lingering inflationary pressures, and geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East.

如今，比特幣與全球金融市場緊密相連，使其容易受到更廣泛的經濟變化的影響。有些人可能會認為，價格減半的上漲受到了更廣泛的經濟不穩定、揮之不去的通膨壓力以及歐洲和中東地緣政治緊張局勢的抑制。

Still, with the expectation of a pro-crypto President who literally campaigned on supporting Bitcoin as a cornerstone of U.S. financial innovation and even floated the idea of a national Bitcoin reserve, hopes for another massive bull run have been reignited.

儘管如此，隨著一位支持加密貨幣的總統在競選中支持比特幣作為美國金融創新的基石，甚至提出了國家比特幣儲備的想法，人們對另一場大規模牛市的希望已經重新燃起。

Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Role of MacroeconomicsThe macroeconomic backdrop could be Bitcoin’s biggest hurdle—or its greatest ally.

通貨膨脹、利率和宏觀經濟的作用宏觀經濟背景可能是比特幣最大的障礙，也可能是其最大的盟友。

Over the past couple of years, inflation has been the villain of the global economy, forcing central banks to hit the brakes with aggressive rate hikes. And though inflation has cooled somewhat, it’s still a significant concern for central banks.

過去幾年，通貨膨脹一直是全球經濟的罪魁禍首，迫使各國央行大幅升息。儘管通膨有所降溫，但它仍然是各國央行的重大擔憂。

The Federal Reserve, in particular, remains hawkish, keeping interest rates at historically high levels to keep inflation in check. Now, this is bad news for speculative assets like Bitcoin—at least, that’s how the mainstream sees it (hardcore BTC maxis may disagree).

尤其是聯準會仍維持鷹派立場，將利率維持在歷史高點以控制通膨。現在，這對比特幣這樣的投機資產來說是個壞消息——至少主流是這麼認為的（鐵桿 BTC maxis 可能不同意）。

You see, high interest rates push investors toward safer, yield-bearing options, leaving less appetite for riskier plays. And consider Bitcoin’s behavior: it rallies when optimism is high but stumbles when fear dominates the market, much like a high-growth tech stock.

你看，高利率促使投資人轉向更安全、有收益的選擇，從而減少了對風險較高的投資的興趣。考慮比特幣的行為：當樂觀情緒高漲時，它會上漲，但當恐懼主導市場時，它就會下跌，就像高成長的科技股一樣。

For Bitcoin to approach $250,000, inflation would need to stabilize further, and central banks might have to ease monetary policies.

要讓比特幣接近 25 萬美元，通膨需要進一步穩定，央行可能不得不放鬆貨幣政策。

Imagine a scenario where the Fed signals rate cuts, and the economy steadies. That kind of shift could reignite risk-taking across markets, sending Bitcoin higher. But if inflation resurges or economic growth falters, Bitcoin could remain stuck in its current range, leaving $250,000 as a pipe dream.

想像聯準會發出降息訊號、經濟穩定的情景。這種轉變可能會重新引發整個市場的冒險行為，進而推高比特幣。但如果通膨再度抬頭或經濟成長放緩，比特幣可能會繼續停留在當前區間，而 25 萬美元將成為癡人說夢。

Is Institutional Adoption a Game Changer for Bitcoin?Institutional adoption adds legitimacy to an asset that once lived on the fringes.

機構採用會改變比特幣的遊戲規則嗎？

Companies like MicroStrategy now hold more than 150,000 BTC (158,400 BTC as of its latest SEC filing in November 2024). And the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs (which greenlit products from BlackRock, Fidelity, and Valkyrie) has opened new doors for investors.

像 MicroStrategy 這樣的公司目前持有超過 150,000 BTC（截至 2024 年 11 月向 SEC 提交的最新文件顯示為 158,400 BTC）。美國證券交易委員會批准現貨比特幣 ETF（為貝萊德、富達和 Valkyrie 的產品開綠燈）為投資者打開了新的大門。

But here’s the kicker: heavyweights like BlackRock and Fidelity are actively acquiring BTC reserves for their funds and lobbying for more explicit cryptocurrency regulations. Even crypto supporters within the U.S. government are gathering inertia to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to hedge against economic instability and compete with other nations exploring similar strategies.

但更關鍵的是：像貝萊德和富達這樣的重量級公司正在積極為其基金購買比特幣儲備，並遊說制定更明確的加密貨幣監管。甚至美國政府內部的加密貨幣支持者也在累積慣性，創建戰略比特幣儲備，以對沖經濟不穩定，並與其他探索類似策略的國家競爭。

Now, institutional involvement is a double-edged sword. It boosts Bitcoin’s credibility and ties it closer to traditional financial systems, giving it another attack vector to attack by regulatory decisions, economic policies, and even quarterly earnings reports from major players. It’s no longer the “wild west” of finance—it’s wearing a suit and playing by different rules.

現在，機構參與是一把雙面刃。它提高了比特幣的可信度，並將其與傳統金融體系聯繫得更緊密，使其成為監管決策、經濟政策甚至主要參與者季度收益報告攻擊的另一個攻擊媒介。它不再是金融界的「狂野西部」——它穿著西裝，按照不同的規則行事。

Imagine a flood of institutional money flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, driving demand and increasing prices. Now picture regulators suddenly slamming the brakes with new restrictions, throwing cold water on the rally.

想像一下大量機構資金流入比特幣 ETF，推動需求並推高價格。現在，監管機構突然推出新的限制措施，為股市漲勢潑了一盆冷水。

In other words, institutions are much easier to regulate– they’re essentially whales that can be easily convinced to dump their bags should a regulatory body choose to slam the hammer.

換句話說，機構更容易監管——它們本質上是鯨魚，如果監管機構選擇嚴厲打擊，它們很容易被說服扔掉袋子。

However, ETFs allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding it, meaning

然而，ETF 允許投資者在不直接持有比特幣的情況下獲得比特幣敞口，這意味著