比特币 25 万美元的预测：现实还是只是白日梦？

比特币触及 25 万美元是一个引人注目的预测，占据了头条新闻。如果你在加密领域工作了足够长的时间，你就会看到辉格党大佬做出天价预测

Bitcoin’s recent surge has sparked bold predictions, including the possibility of the cryptocurrency hitting $250,000. While some might dismiss such predictions as clickbait, this crypto feels different now.

比特币最近的飙升引发了大胆的预测，其中包括该加密货币有可能突破 25 万美元。虽然有些人可能会将此类预测视为标题诱饵，但这种加密货币现在感觉不同了。

Let’s examine the factors driving the latest prediction and explore the economic and institutional landscape that could align to make $250,000 a reality.

让我们研究一下推动最新预测的因素，并探索可能使 250,000 美元成为现实的经济和制度格局。

The Setting: How 2024’s Bitcoin Halving Shapes the NarrativeBitcoin’s halvings have served as price catalysts, reducing the number of new coins miners can earn by half. It’s a feature, not a bug, designed to introduce scarcity into the system.

背景：2024 年比特币减半如何塑造叙事比特币减半起到了价格催化剂的作用，使矿工可以赚取的新币数量减少了一半。这是一个功能，而不是一个错误，旨在将稀缺性引入系统。

Back in 2012, Bitcoin rose from $12 to over $127. In 2020, it doubled within eight months. And in 2021, BTC hit an all-time high of $68,000. In April 2024, Bitcoin’s most recent halving occurred, dropping mining rewards to 3.125 BTC per block.

早在 2012 年，比特币就从 12 美元上涨至 127 美元以上。 2020年，八个月内翻了一番。 2021 年，BTC 触及 68,000 美元的历史新高。 2024 年 4 月，比特币最近一次减半，挖矿奖励降至每块 3.125 BTC。

But to everyone’s surprise, the resulting gain was modest at best. In the months following the event, Bitcoin only managed to eke out a 7% gain.

但令所有人惊讶的是，最终的收益充其量也只是微乎其微。事件发生后的几个月里，比特币仅勉强上涨了 7%。

As we learned the hard way, Bitcoin’s past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. And back then, halvings took place in a relatively isolated ecosystem.

我们通过惨痛的教训了解到，比特币过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。当时，减半发生在一个相对孤立的生态系统中。

Today, Bitcoin is deeply tied to global financial markets, making it vulnerable to broader economic shifts. Some may argue that the halving price uptick was dampened by broader economic instability, lingering inflationary pressures, and geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East.

如今，比特币与全球金融市场紧密相连，使其容易受到更广泛的经济变化的影响。一些人可能会认为，价格减半的上涨受到了更广泛的经济不稳定、挥之不去的通胀压力以及欧洲和中东地缘政治紧张局势的抑制。

Still, with the expectation of a pro-crypto President who literally campaigned on supporting Bitcoin as a cornerstone of U.S. financial innovation and even floated the idea of a national Bitcoin reserve, hopes for another massive bull run have been reignited.

尽管如此，随着一位支持加密货币的总统在竞选中支持比特币作为美国金融创新的基石，甚至提出了国家比特币储备的想法，人们对另一场大规模牛市的希望已经重新燃起。

Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Role of MacroeconomicsThe macroeconomic backdrop could be Bitcoin’s biggest hurdle—or its greatest ally.

通货膨胀、利率和宏观经济的作用宏观经济背景可能是比特币最大的障碍，也可能是其最大的盟友。

Over the past couple of years, inflation has been the villain of the global economy, forcing central banks to hit the brakes with aggressive rate hikes. And though inflation has cooled somewhat, it’s still a significant concern for central banks.

过去几年，通货膨胀一直是全球经济的罪魁祸首，迫使各国央行大幅加息。尽管通胀有所降温，但它仍然是各国央行的一个重大担忧。

The Federal Reserve, in particular, remains hawkish, keeping interest rates at historically high levels to keep inflation in check. Now, this is bad news for speculative assets like Bitcoin—at least, that’s how the mainstream sees it (hardcore BTC maxis may disagree).

尤其是美联储仍然保持鹰派立场，将利率维持在历史高位以控制通胀。现在，这对于像比特币这样的投机资产来说是个坏消息——至少主流是这么认为的（铁杆 BTC maxis 可能不同意）。

You see, high interest rates push investors toward safer, yield-bearing options, leaving less appetite for riskier plays. And consider Bitcoin’s behavior: it rallies when optimism is high but stumbles when fear dominates the market, much like a high-growth tech stock.

你看，高利率促使投资者转向更安全、有收益的选择，从而减少了对风险较高的投资的兴趣。考虑一下比特币的行为：当乐观情绪高涨时，它会上涨，但当恐惧主导市场时，它就会下跌，就像高增长的科技股一样。

For Bitcoin to approach $250,000, inflation would need to stabilize further, and central banks might have to ease monetary policies.

要使比特币接近 25 万美元，通胀需要进一步稳定，央行可能不得不放松货币政策。

Imagine a scenario where the Fed signals rate cuts, and the economy steadies. That kind of shift could reignite risk-taking across markets, sending Bitcoin higher. But if inflation resurges or economic growth falters, Bitcoin could remain stuck in its current range, leaving $250,000 as a pipe dream.

想象一下美联储发出降息信号、经济企稳的情景。这种转变可能会重新引发整个市场的冒险行为，从而推高比特币。但如果通胀再度抬头或经济增长放缓，比特币可能会继续停留在当前区间，而 25 万美元将成为痴人说梦。

Is Institutional Adoption a Game Changer for Bitcoin?Institutional adoption adds legitimacy to an asset that once lived on the fringes.

机构采用会改变比特币的游戏规则吗？机构采用为曾经处于边缘的资产增加了合法性。

Companies like MicroStrategy now hold more than 150,000 BTC (158,400 BTC as of its latest SEC filing in November 2024). And the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs (which greenlit products from BlackRock, Fidelity, and Valkyrie) has opened new doors for investors.

像 MicroStrategy 这样的公司目前持有超过 150,000 BTC（截至 2024 年 11 月向 SEC 提交的最新文件显示为 158,400 BTC）。美国证券交易委员会批准现货比特币 ETF（为贝莱德、富达和 Valkyrie 的产品开绿灯）为投资者打开了新的大门。

But here’s the kicker: heavyweights like BlackRock and Fidelity are actively acquiring BTC reserves for their funds and lobbying for more explicit cryptocurrency regulations. Even crypto supporters within the U.S. government are gathering inertia to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to hedge against economic instability and compete with other nations exploring similar strategies.

但更关键的是：像贝莱德和富达这样的重量级公司正在积极为其基金购买比特币储备，并游说制定更明确的加密货币监管。甚至美国政府内部的加密货币支持者也在积聚惯性，创建战略比特币储备，以对冲经济不稳定，并与探索类似策略的其他国家竞争。

Now, institutional involvement is a double-edged sword. It boosts Bitcoin’s credibility and ties it closer to traditional financial systems, giving it another attack vector to attack by regulatory decisions, economic policies, and even quarterly earnings reports from major players. It’s no longer the “wild west” of finance—it’s wearing a suit and playing by different rules.

现在，机构参与是一把双刃剑。它提高了比特币的可信度，并将其与传统金融体系联系得更紧密，为其提供了另一个攻击媒介，可以受到监管决策、经济政策甚至主要参与者的季度收益报告的攻击。它不再是金融界的“狂野西部”——它穿着西装，按照不同的规则行事。

Imagine a flood of institutional money flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, driving demand and increasing prices. Now picture regulators suddenly slamming the brakes with new restrictions, throwing cold water on the rally.

想象一下大量机构资金流入比特币 ETF，推动需求并推高价格。现在，监管机构突然出台新的限制措施，给股市涨势泼了一盆冷水。

In other words, institutions are much easier to regulate– they’re essentially whales that can be easily convinced to dump their bags should a regulatory body choose to slam the hammer.

换句话说，机构更容易监管——它们本质上是鲸鱼，如果监管机构选择严厉打击，它们很容易被说服扔掉袋子。

However, ETFs allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding it, meaning

然而，ETF 允许投资者在不直接持有比特币的情况下获得比特币敞口，这意味着