比特幣接近 10 萬美元，業界預計川普將採取更「加密貨幣友善」的方式

由於行業參與者預計即將上任的川普政府將採取更加「加密友好」的方法來監管數位貨幣，因此出現了戲劇性的反彈。

Bitcoin extended its streak of record highs after ticking above $99,000 for the first time overnight. The cryptocurrency has rocketed more than 40% in just two weeks.

比特幣隔夜首次突破 99,000 美元後延續了歷史新高。加密貨幣在短短兩週內飆升了 40% 以上。

Now, bitcoin is at the doorstep of $100,000, just two years after dropping below $17,000 following the collapse of crypto exchange FTX. The dramatic rally arrives as industry players expect the incoming Trump administration to bring a more “crypto-friendly” approach toward regulating the digital currency.

現在，比特幣已接近 10 萬美元，距離加密貨幣交易所 FTX 崩盤後跌破 17,000 美元僅兩年。由於行業參與者預計即將上任的川普政府將採取更加「加密友好」的方法來監管數位貨幣，因此出現了戲劇性的反彈。

Bitcoin was trading at $98,882 early Friday, according to CoinDesk.

據 CoinDesk 稱，週五早些時候，比特幣交易價格為 98,882 美元。

As with everything in the volatile crypto markets, the future is impossible to know. And while some are bullish, other experts continue to warn of investment risks.

就像波動的加密貨幣市場中的一切一樣，未來是不可能知道的。儘管有些人看好，但其他專家繼續警告投資風險。

Here’s what you need to know.

這是您需要了解的內容。

Cryptocurrency has been around for a while now. But, chances are, you've heard about it more and more over the last few years.

加密貨幣已經存在了一段時間了。但是，很可能在過去幾年中您已經越來越多地聽說過它。

In basic terms, cryptocurrency is digital money. This kind of currency is designed to work through an online network without a central authority — meaning it’s typically not backed by any government or banking institution — and transactions get recorded with technology called a blockchain.

從根本上來說，加密貨幣是數位貨幣。這種貨幣旨在透過沒有中央權威的線上網路運作——這意味著它通常不受任何政府或銀行機構的支持——並且交易透過稱為區塊鏈的技術進行記錄。

Bitcoin is the largest and oldest cryptocurrency, although other assets like ethereum, tether and dogecoin have also gained popularity over the years. Some investors see cryptocurrency as a “digital alternative” to traditional money — but it can be very volatile, with its price reliant on larger market conditions.

比特幣是最大、最古老的加密貨幣，儘管以太坊、泰達幣和狗狗幣等其他資產多年來也越來越受歡迎。一些投資者將加密貨幣視為傳統貨幣的“數位替代品”，但它可能非常不穩定，其價格取決於更大的市場狀況。

A lot of the recent action has to do with the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.

最近的許多行動都與美國總統大選的結果有關。

Crypto industry players have welcomed Trump’s victory, in hopes that he would be able to push through legislative and regulatory changes that they’ve long lobbied for — which, generally speaking, aim for an increased sense of legitimacy without too much red tape.

加密貨幣行業參與者對川普的勝利表示歡迎，希望他能夠推動他們長期以來遊說的立法和監管改革——一般來說，這些改革的目標是在沒有太多繁文縟節的情況下增強合法性。

Trump, who was once a crypto skeptic, recently pledged to make the U.S. “the crypto capital of the planet” and create a “strategic reserve” of bitcoin. His campaign accepted donations in cryptocurrency and he courted fans at a bitcoin conference in July. He also launched World Liberty Financial, a new venture with family members to trade cryptocurrencies.

曾經是加密貨幣懷疑論者的川普最近承諾讓美國成為“地球的加密貨幣之都”，並創建比特幣的“戰略儲備”。他的競選活動接受了加密貨幣捐款，並在 7 月的比特幣會議上吸引了粉絲。他也與家族成員創立了世界自由金融公司（World Liberty Financial），從事加密貨幣交易。

How of this will actually pan out — and whether or not Trump will successfully act quickly on these promises — has yet to be seen.

這實際上將如何實現——以及川普是否會成功地迅速兌現這些承諾——還有待觀察。

“This is not necessarily a short-term story, it’s likely a much longer-term story," Citi macro strategist David Glass told The Associated Press last week. "And there is the question of how quickly can U.S. crypto policy make a serious impact on (wider adoption).”

花旗宏觀策略師大衛·格拉斯上週對美聯社表示：“這不一定是一個短期故事，它可能是一個長期故事。”“問題是美國的加密貨幣政策能多快產生嚴重影響。” （更廣泛的採用）。

Adam Morgan McCarthy, a research analyst at Kaiko, thinks the industry is craving “just some sort of clarity.” Much of the approach to regulating crypto in the past has been “enforcement based,” he notes, which has been helpful in weeding out some bad actors — but legislation might fill in other key gaps.

Kaiko 研究分析師 Adam Morgan McCarthy 認為，該行業渴望「某種程度的明確性」。他指出，過去監管加密貨幣的大部分方法都是“基於執法”，這有助於清除一些不良行為者，但立法可能會填補其他關鍵空白。

Gary Gensler, who as head of the Securities and Exchange Commission under President Joe Biden has led a U.S. government’s crackdown on the crypto industry, penalized a number of crypto companies for violating securities laws. Gensler announced Thursday that he would step down as SEC chair on Jan. 20, Inauguration Day.

加里·詹斯勒（Gary Gensler）在喬·拜登總統領導下擔任美國證券交易委員會主席，領導了美國政府對加密貨幣行業的打擊，他對多家違反證券法的加密貨幣公司進行了處罰。 Gensler 週四宣布，他將於 1 月 20 日就職日辭去 SEC 主席職務。

Despite crypto’s recent excitement around Trump, McCarthy said that 2024 has already been a “hugely consequential year for regulation in the U.S.” — pointing to January’s approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, for example, which mark a new way to invest in the asset.

儘管加密貨幣最近圍繞川普而令人興奮，但麥卡錫表示，2024 年已經是「美國監管影響重大的一年」——例如，他指出1 月批准了現貨比特幣ETF，這標誌著一種投資該資產的新方式。

Spot ETFs have been the dominant driver of bitcoin for some time now — but, like much of the crypto’s recent momentum, saw record inflows postelection. According to Kaiko, bitcoin ETFs recorded $6 billion in trade volume for the week of the election alone.

一段時間以來，現貨 ETF 一直是比特幣的主要推動力，但與加密貨幣近期的大部分勢頭一樣，在大選後資金流入創歷史新高。據 Kaiko 稱，光是選舉當週，比特幣 ETF 的交易量就達到了 60 億美元。

In April, bitcoin also saw its fourth “halving” — a preprogrammed event that impacts production by cutting the reward for mining, or the creation of new bitcoin, in half. In theory, if demand remains strong, some analysts say this “supply shock” can also help propel the price long term. Others note it may be too early to tell.

四月份，比特幣還經歷了第四次「減半」——這是一個預先編程的事件，透過將採礦或新比特幣的創造獎勵減半來影響生產。理論上，如果需求保持強勁，一些分析師表示，這種「供應衝擊」也可能有助於長期推動價格。其他人指出，現在下結論可能還為時過早。

History shows you can lose money in crypto as quickly as you’ve made it. Long-term price behavior relies on larger market conditions. Trading continues at all hours, every day.

歷史表明，你在加密貨幣領域賺錢的速度可能和你賺錢的速度一樣快。長期價格行為依賴更大的市場條件。交易每天全天候進行。

At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, bitcoin stood at just over $5,000. Its price climbed to nearly $69,000 by November 2021, during high demand for technology assets, but later crashed during an aggressive series of Federal Reserve rate hikes. And in late 2022 collapse of FTX significantly undermined confidence in crypto overall, with bitcoin falling below $17,000.

在 COVID-19 大流行開始時，比特幣價格略高於 5,000 美元。到 2021 年 11 月，在技術資產需求旺盛期間，其價格攀升至近 69,000 美元，但後來在聯準會一系列激進加息期間暴跌。 2022 年底，FTX 的崩潰嚴重削弱了人們對加密貨幣的整體信心，比特幣跌破 17,000 美元。

Investors began returning in large numbers as inflation started to cool — and gains skyrocketed on the anticipation and then early

隨著通膨開始降溫，投資者開始大量回歸，收益因預期而飆升，然後提前