減半比特幣市場低迷迫在眉睫，ETF擔憂蒙上陰影

隨著比特幣減半和ETF趨勢的出現，市場低迷訊號不斷出現。未實現收益和 ETF 流入減少加劇了拋售壓力。比特幣的技術模式暗示了潛在的價格調整，支撐位和斐波那契回撤提供了對市場動態的洞察。

Bitcoin Market Downturn Looms Amidst Halving Shadow and ETF Inflow Concerns

影子減半和 ETF 流入擔憂，比特幣市場低迷迫在眉睫

The cryptocurrency landscape is poised for a potential market downturn as key market indicators point towards heightened selling pressure and a decline in investor sentiment. The upcoming Bitcoin halving event, coupled with reduced inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and traders holding substantial unrealized gains, is painting a bearish picture.

由於主要市場指標顯示拋售壓力加大和投資者情緒下降，加密貨幣格局可能會出現潛在的市場低迷。即將到來的比特幣減半事件，加上比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的資金流入減少以及持有大量未實現收益的交易者，正在描繪出一幅悲觀的景象。

Unveiling the Unrealized Profit Pressure

揭示未實現的利潤壓力

CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, has identified a growing selling pressure stemming from unrealized profits. The CryptoQuant's net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) indicator, currently standing at 0.606, suggests a high probability of investors cashing out their holdings to realize gains. This could further depress Bitcoin's value.

CryptoQuant 的研究主管 Julio Moreno 發現，未實現利潤導致拋售壓力不斷增大。 CryptoQuant 的未實現淨損益 (NUPL) 指標目前為 0.606，顯示投資者出售所持資產以實現收益的可能性很高。這可能會進一步壓低比特幣的價值。

Cooling Inflows Dampen ETF Sentiment

資金流入降溫抑制 ETF 情緒

Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed a significant decline in net inflows lately, indicating a cautious or bearish sentiment among investors. Despite these concerns, the demand for Bitcoin ETFs remains strong, as evidenced by IntoTheBlock's report of a rising total flow since March 19.

比特幣ETF近期淨流入量大幅下降，顯示投資人持謹慎或看跌情緒。儘管存在這些擔憂，但對比特幣 ETF 的需求仍然強勁，IntoTheBlock 報告顯示自 3 月 19 日以來總流量不斷上升就證明了這一點。

Halving: A Double-Edged Sword

減半：一把雙面刃

The Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April 19, 2024, is a pivotal event that will halve mining rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. While some anticipate higher mining costs, CoinShares projects an average post-halving production cost of around $37,856 for miners. Additionally, miners selling a portion of their reserves for profit, a trend observed before previous halvings, is also evident in 2024, with miner reserves at a two-year low.

定於 2024 年 4 月 19 日舉行的比特幣減半是一個關鍵事件，挖礦獎勵將從 6.25 BTC 減半至 3.125 BTC。雖然有些人預計挖礦成本會更高，但 CoinShares 預計減半後礦工的平均生產成本約為 37,856 美元。此外，礦工出售部分儲備金以獲取利潤（先前減半之前觀察到的趨勢）在 2024 年也很明顯，礦工儲備金處於兩年來的低點。

Technical Analysis Paints a Bearish Picture

技術分析描繪了一幅看跌的圖景

Bitcoin's price action has formed an ascending triangle pattern, indicating a potential end to the upward momentum. A break below the triangle formation, or a bearish rejection from the current resistance level, could signal a downturn. Key support levels are projected at $52,600, with the potential for horizontal market movement due to increased selling pressure.

比特幣的價格走勢已形成上升三角形模式，顯示上升勢頭可能結束。跌破三角形形態，或當前阻力位的看跌拒絕，可能預示經濟低迷。預計關鍵支撐位為 52,600 美元，由於拋售壓力增加，市場可能會出現橫向波動。

Risk and Reward in the Cryptocurrency Landscape

加密貨幣領域的風險與回報

The Bitcoin halving remains a critical event that could redefine market dynamics and the valuation of Bitcoin. Balancing the potential for both risk and reward, investors should proceed with caution and conduct thorough research before making any financial decisions. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and susceptible to unforeseen movements.

比特幣減半仍然是一個可能重新定義市場動態和比特幣估值的關鍵事件。權衡風險和回報的潛力，投資者在做出任何財務決策之前應謹慎行事並進行徹底的研究。加密貨幣市場波動性很大，容易受到不可預見的波動的影響。

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute financial advice. The information provided is the author's opinion and should not be construed as trading or investment recommendations. Investors should conduct thorough research and consult with financial professionals before making any investment decisions.

免責聲明：本文不構成財務建議。所提供的資訊是作者的觀點，不應被視為交易或投資建議。投資者在做出任何投資決定之前應進行徹底的研究並諮詢金融專業人士。