减半比特币市场低迷迫在眉睫，ETF担忧蒙上阴影

随着比特币减半和ETF趋势的出现，市场低迷信号不断出现。未实现收益和 ETF 流入减少加剧了抛售压力。比特币的技术模式暗示了潜在的价格调整，支撑位和斐波那契回撤提供了对市场动态的洞察。

Bitcoin Market Downturn Looms Amidst Halving Shadow and ETF Inflow Concerns

影子减半和 ETF 流入担忧，比特币市场低迷迫在眉睫

The cryptocurrency landscape is poised for a potential market downturn as key market indicators point towards heightened selling pressure and a decline in investor sentiment. The upcoming Bitcoin halving event, coupled with reduced inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and traders holding substantial unrealized gains, is painting a bearish picture.

由于主要市场指标表明抛售压力加大和投资者情绪下降，加密货币格局可能会出现潜在的市场低迷。即将到来的比特币减半事件，加上比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的资金流入减少以及持有大量未实现收益的交易者，正在描绘出一幅悲观的景象。

Unveiling the Unrealized Profit Pressure

揭示未实现的利润压力

CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, has identified a growing selling pressure stemming from unrealized profits. The CryptoQuant's net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) indicator, currently standing at 0.606, suggests a high probability of investors cashing out their holdings to realize gains. This could further depress Bitcoin's value.

CryptoQuant 的研究主管胡里奥·莫雷诺 (Julio Moreno) 发现，未实现利润导致抛售压力不断增大。 CryptoQuant 的未实现净损益 (NUPL) 指标目前为 0.606，表明投资者出售所持资产以实现收益的可能性很高。这可能会进一步压低比特币的价值。

Cooling Inflows Dampen ETF Sentiment

资金流入降温抑制 ETF 情绪

Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed a significant decline in net inflows lately, indicating a cautious or bearish sentiment among investors. Despite these concerns, the demand for Bitcoin ETFs remains strong, as evidenced by IntoTheBlock's report of a rising total flow since March 19.

比特币ETF近期净流入大幅下降，表明投资者持谨慎或看跌情绪。尽管存在这些担忧，但对比特币 ETF 的需求仍然强劲，IntoTheBlock 报告显示自 3 月 19 日以来总流量不断上升就证明了这一点。

Halving: A Double-Edged Sword

减半：一把双刃剑

The Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April 19, 2024, is a pivotal event that will halve mining rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. While some anticipate higher mining costs, CoinShares projects an average post-halving production cost of around $37,856 for miners. Additionally, miners selling a portion of their reserves for profit, a trend observed before previous halvings, is also evident in 2024, with miner reserves at a two-year low.

定于 2024 年 4 月 19 日举行的比特币减半是一个关键事件，挖矿奖励将从 6.25 BTC 减半至 3.125 BTC。虽然有些人预计挖矿成本会更高，但 CoinShares 预计减半后矿工的平均生产成本约为 37,856 美元。此外，矿工出售部分储备金以获取利润（之前减半之前观察到的趋势）在 2024 年也很明显，矿工储备金处于两年来的低点。

Technical Analysis Paints a Bearish Picture

技术分析描绘了一幅看跌的图景

Bitcoin's price action has formed an ascending triangle pattern, indicating a potential end to the upward momentum. A break below the triangle formation, or a bearish rejection from the current resistance level, could signal a downturn. Key support levels are projected at $52,600, with the potential for horizontal market movement due to increased selling pressure.

比特币的价格走势已形成上升三角形模式，表明上升势头可能结束。跌破三角形形态，或当前阻力位的看跌拒绝，可能预示着经济低迷。预计关键支撑位为 52,600 美元，由于抛售压力增加，市场可能出现横向波动。

Risk and Reward in the Cryptocurrency Landscape

加密货币领域的风险和回报

The Bitcoin halving remains a critical event that could redefine market dynamics and the valuation of Bitcoin. Balancing the potential for both risk and reward, investors should proceed with caution and conduct thorough research before making any financial decisions. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and susceptible to unforeseen movements.

比特币减半仍然是一个可能重新定义市场动态和比特币估值的关键事件。权衡风险和回报的潜力，投资者在做出任何财务决策之前应谨慎行事并进行彻底的研究。加密货币市场波动性很大，容易受到不可预见的波动的影响。

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute financial advice. The information provided is the author's opinion and should not be construed as trading or investment recommendations. Investors should conduct thorough research and consult with financial professionals before making any investment decisions.

免责声明：本文不构成财务建议。所提供的信息是作者的观点，不应被视为交易或投资建议。投资者在做出任何投资决定之前应进行彻底的研究并咨询金融专业人士。