比特幣落後於黃金，全球流動性命中率很高

隨著2025年4月的全球流動性飆升至歷史高峰，黃金破裂超過每盎司3,200美元

As global liquidity surged to an all-time high in April 2025 and gold breached the $3,200 per ounce mark, Bitcoin remained at levels around 30% below its previous peak.

隨著全球流動性在2025年4月飆升至歷史最高點，黃金違反了每盎司3,200美元的標記，比特幣的水平仍低於先前的峰值30％。

This lag in Bitcoin’s recovery compared to gold had analysts examining a key aspect of the two assets’ historical movements—a 100 to 150 day lag in BTC’s major price moves.

與黃金相比，比特幣恢復的滯後滯後是分析師研究了這兩個資產歷史運動的一個關鍵方面，這是BTC的主要價格轉移的100至150天滯後。

"When the printer roars to life, gold sniffs it out first, then Bitcoin follows harder," said Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya, in a recent post.

“當打印機咆哮著生命時，黃金首先嗅出它，然後比特幣更堅硬，”他們最近的一篇帖子中的成長負責人喬·科斯蒂（Joe Consorti）說。

Highlighting a chart comparing the performance of gold (XAU/USD) with Bitcoin (XBT/USD) between 2019 and April 2025, Consorti added: "It's interesting to note that we're now around 100 to 150 days behind gold's major price move."

Consorti強調了一張圖表，該圖表將黃金（XAU/USD）與比特幣（XBT/USD）的性能在2019年至2025年4月之間，並在2025年4月之間補充說：“有趣的是，我們現在落後了Gold的主要價格轉移的100至150天。”

The implication? If history repeats, Bitcoin could be due for a sharp move higher within the next 3–4 months, especially as gold continues to push to new highs.

含義？如果歷史重複，比特幣可能會在未來3-4個月內急劇提高，尤其是當黃金繼續推向新的高點時。

The chart also shows that BTC's price lows in 2025 have generally coincided with lows in global M2 money supply—a measure of the total money supply in an economy—from the U.S., China, Japan, Canada, the Eurozone, the U.K., and Australia.

該圖表還顯示，BTC在2025年的價格低谷通常與全球M2貨幣供應的低點（衡量了經濟中的總貨幣供應量），從美國，中國，日本，加拿大，加拿大，歐元區，英國和澳大利亞。

However, April 2025 saw this liquidity indicator hit record highs as central banks ramped up monetary policy in response to the pandemic and other economic challenges.

但是，2025年4月，由於中央銀行對大流行和其他經濟挑戰的響應加強了貨幣政策，因此該流動性指標達到了最高記錄。

This spike in M2 could bode well for risk assets, given that past Bitcoin bull markets have often coincided with periods of massive liquidity growth, as noted by popular on-chain analyst "Root."

正如流行的鏈上分析師“ Root”所指出的那樣，M2中的這種高峰可能對風險資產的兆頭可以很好地塑造。

With more money flowing through the financial system, there tends to be greater demand for assets outside traditional finance—something which has benefitted Bitcoin in the past.

隨著越來越多的資金貫穿金融體系，對傳統金融之外的資產的需求往往更高，這在過去曾受益於比特幣。

This thesis is further supported by the record levels of corporate demand for Bitcoin in Q1 2025. Despite regulatory uncertainty and volatility, institutions are continuing to accumulate BTC, signaling long-term confidence in its role as a hedge against inflation and fiat devaluation.

該論點得到了第1季度對比特幣需求的創紀錄水平進一步支持。儘管監管不確定性和波動性，但機構仍在繼續積累BTC，這表明了對其作為抵制通貨膨脹和菲亞特貶值的對沖的長期信心。