Bitcoin Lags Gold as Global Liquidity Hits Record High

As global liquidity surges to an all-time high in April 2025 and gold breaks past $3,200 per ounce

As global liquidity surged to an all-time high in April 2025 and gold breached the $3,200 per ounce mark, Bitcoin remained at levels around 30% below its previous peak.

This lag in Bitcoin’s recovery compared to gold had analysts examining a key aspect of the two assets’ historical movements—a 100 to 150 day lag in BTC’s major price moves.

"When the printer roars to life, gold sniffs it out first, then Bitcoin follows harder," said Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya, in a recent post.

Highlighting a chart comparing the performance of gold (XAU/USD) with Bitcoin (XBT/USD) between 2019 and April 2025, Consorti added: "It's interesting to note that we're now around 100 to 150 days behind gold's major price move."

The implication? If history repeats, Bitcoin could be due for a sharp move higher within the next 3–4 months, especially as gold continues to push to new highs.

The chart also shows that BTC's price lows in 2025 have generally coincided with lows in global M2 money supply—a measure of the total money supply in an economy—from the U.S., China, Japan, Canada, the Eurozone, the U.K., and Australia.

However, April 2025 saw this liquidity indicator hit record highs as central banks ramped up monetary policy in response to the pandemic and other economic challenges.

This spike in M2 could bode well for risk assets, given that past Bitcoin bull markets have often coincided with periods of massive liquidity growth, as noted by popular on-chain analyst "Root."

With more money flowing through the financial system, there tends to be greater demand for assets outside traditional finance—something which has benefitted Bitcoin in the past.

This thesis is further supported by the record levels of corporate demand for Bitcoin in Q1 2025. Despite regulatory uncertainty and volatility, institutions are continuing to accumulate BTC, signaling long-term confidence in its role as a hedge against inflation and fiat devaluation.