比特币落后于黄金，全球流动性命中率很高

随着2025年4月的全球流动性飙升至历史高峰，黄金破裂超过每盎司3,200美元

As global liquidity surged to an all-time high in April 2025 and gold breached the $3,200 per ounce mark, Bitcoin remained at levels around 30% below its previous peak.

随着全球流动性在2025年4月飙升至历史最高点，黄金违反了每盎司3,200美元的标记，比特币的水平仍低于先前的峰值30％。

This lag in Bitcoin’s recovery compared to gold had analysts examining a key aspect of the two assets’ historical movements—a 100 to 150 day lag in BTC’s major price moves.

与黄金相比，比特币恢复的滞后滞后是分析师研究了这两个资产历史运动的一个关键方面，这是BTC的主要价格转移的100至150天滞后。

"When the printer roars to life, gold sniffs it out first, then Bitcoin follows harder," said Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya, in a recent post.

“当打印机咆哮着生命时，黄金首先嗅出它，然后比特币更坚硬，”他们最近的一篇帖子中的成长负责人乔·科斯蒂（Joe Consorti）说。

Highlighting a chart comparing the performance of gold (XAU/USD) with Bitcoin (XBT/USD) between 2019 and April 2025, Consorti added: "It's interesting to note that we're now around 100 to 150 days behind gold's major price move."

Consorti强调了一张图表，该图表将黄金（XAU/USD）与比特币（XBT/USD）的性能在2019年至2025年4月之间，并在2025年4月之间补充说：“有趣的是，我们现在落后了Gold的主要价格转移的100至150天。”

The implication? If history repeats, Bitcoin could be due for a sharp move higher within the next 3–4 months, especially as gold continues to push to new highs.

含义？如果历史重复，比特币可能会在未来3-4个月内急剧提高，尤其是当黄金继续推向新的高点时。

The chart also shows that BTC's price lows in 2025 have generally coincided with lows in global M2 money supply—a measure of the total money supply in an economy—from the U.S., China, Japan, Canada, the Eurozone, the U.K., and Australia.

该图表还显示，BTC在2025年的价格低谷通常与全球M2货币供应的低点（衡量了经济中的总货币供应量），从美国，中国，日本，加拿大，加拿大，欧元区，英国和澳大利亚。

However, April 2025 saw this liquidity indicator hit record highs as central banks ramped up monetary policy in response to the pandemic and other economic challenges.

但是，2025年4月，由于中央银行对大流行和其他经济挑战的响应加强了货币政策，因此该流动性指标达到了最高记录。

This spike in M2 could bode well for risk assets, given that past Bitcoin bull markets have often coincided with periods of massive liquidity growth, as noted by popular on-chain analyst "Root."

正如流行的链上分析师“ Root”所指出的那样，M2中的这种高峰可能对风险资产的兆头可以很好地塑造。

With more money flowing through the financial system, there tends to be greater demand for assets outside traditional finance—something which has benefitted Bitcoin in the past.

随着越来越多的资金贯穿金融体系，对传统金融之外的资产的需求往往更高，这在过去曾受益于比特币。

This thesis is further supported by the record levels of corporate demand for Bitcoin in Q1 2025. Despite regulatory uncertainty and volatility, institutions are continuing to accumulate BTC, signaling long-term confidence in its role as a hedge against inflation and fiat devaluation.

该论点得到了第1季度对比特币需求的创纪录水平进一步支持。尽管监管不确定性和波动性，但机构仍在继续积累BTC，这表明了对其作为抵制通货膨胀和菲亚特贬值的对冲的长期信心。