隨著比特幣徘徊在80,00美元左右，一個燃燒的問題徘徊：加密王者國王終於找到了它的地板？

技術分析的傳奇人物，同名樂隊的創造者約翰·布林格（John Bollinger）帶來了希望。據他說，技術信號

As bitcoin hovers around $82,000, a burning question lingers among investors: has the king of cryptos finally found its floor? A legend in technical analysis, John Bollinger, creator of the eponymous Bands, brings a glimmer of hope. According to him, technical signals suggest a rebound scenario. But caution: behind this enticing perspective lie traps to decipher.

隨著比特幣徘徊在82,000美元左右，投資者中的一個燃燒的問題徘徊：加密王者國王終於找到了它的地板？同名樂隊的創建者約翰·布林格（John Bollinger）是技術分析的傳奇人物，帶來了一絲希望。據他說，技術信號暗示了反彈的情況。但是要謹慎：在這種誘人的透視謊言背後誘捕破譯。

Bollinger Bands and %b: The W that Intrigues

布林樂隊和％b：w

On the weekly charts of BTC, a familiar silhouette appears: a double bottom in the shape of a W. For Bollinger, this setup is a historical marker of bullish reversal.

在BTC的每週圖表中，出現了一個熟悉的輪廓：W w w w the the。對於Bollinger，這種設置是看漲逆轉的歷史標誌。

The %b indicator, measuring the price’s position relative to the Bands, plays a key role here. When its value dips below zero before rising again, then retesting this level without breaking it, the W mechanics come into play.

％b指標衡量了價格相對於頻段的位置，在這裡起著關鍵作用。當它的值在再次上升之前下降到零以下，然後重新測試此水平而不會破壞它時，W機械師就會發揮作用。

A scenario awaiting confirmation. Currently, bitcoin brushes against the lower band, but the central moving average (20 periods) holds firm. “The W is there, but it lacks validation,” Bollinger specifies.

等待確認的方案。目前，比特幣對較低的樂隊進行了刷子，但中央移動平均線（20個時期）保持公司。 “ W存在，但缺乏驗證，” Bollinger指定。

In other words, as long as the price does not surpass the median SMA – located around $85,000 – doubts persist. Buyers remain on the lookout, scrutinizing every movement.

換句話說，只要價格沒有超過中位數SMA（約85,000美元）的中位數，疑問就會持續存在。買家繼續監視，仔細檢查每個動作。

The weight of correlations. In the shadows, another index disturbs the waters: synchronization with the stock markets. The S&P 500, like bitcoin, hovers near its oversold levels.

相關的重量。在陰影中，另一個索引打擾了水域：與股票市場同步。標準普爾500指數，例如比特幣，徘徊在其超售水平附近。

Jurrien Timmer (Fidelity) notes that the flagship index grazed two standard deviations below its trend, a rare signal but not yet extreme. For BTC, this symbiosis indicates an increased dependence on the ups and downs of Wall Street.

Jurrien Timmer（Fidelity）指出，該旗艦指數在其趨勢以下的兩個標準偏差放牧，這是一個罕見的信號，但尚未極端。對於BTC，這種共生表明對華爾街的起伏的依賴增加。

Nasdaq -10%: The Trap to Avoid for Bitcoin

納斯達克-10％：避免比特幣的陷阱

If the Bollinger Bands outline a possible reversal, the macroeconomic context could ruin everything.

如果布林樂隊概述了可能的逆轉，那麼宏觀經濟的環境可能會破壞一切。

Timothy Peterson, a specialized economist, warns: “Bitcoin anticipated the Nasdaq’s decline. But to bounce back, it must wait for the US tech stocks to hit bottom.” A scenario that would imply an additional 10% drop for the index, according to his models.

專業的經濟學家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）警告說：“比特幣預計納斯達克的下降。但是要反彈，它必須等待美國科技股的最低點。”根據他的模型，這種方案將暗示該指數下降10％。

$70,000: The psychological threshold? Analysts converge on this level, a mix of technical support and market psychology.

$ 70,000：心理門檻？分析師在此層面上匯聚，這是技術支持和市場心理學的混合。

Peterson reminds us that at this stage, historical probabilities give a 95% chance that bitcoin stabilizes its fall. But beware: this threshold also acts as a liquidity magnet, attracting stop-loss orders and amplifying volatility.

彼得森提醒我們，在此階段，歷史概率給比特幣穩定了95％的機會。但是要當心：這個閾值也充當流動性磁鐵，吸引了停止損失的訂單並放大波動率。

Peterson highlights a lesser-known mechanism: bitcoin, perceived as the riskiest asset, reacts after equity indices. In clear terms, the Nasdaq must first show signs of recovery for capital to flow into cryptos. A logic that places investors in a strategic wait, between caution and opportunism.

彼得森強調了一種鮮為人知的機制：被視為最風險的資產的比特幣在股權指數後做出反應。從明確的角度來看，納斯達克必須首先顯示資本回收的跡象，以使資本流入加密貨幣。一種使投資者在謹慎和機會主義之間進行戰略等待的邏輯。

The classic floor mentioned by Bollinger offers a glimmer of hope, but external variables complicate the equation. Bitcoin navigates between its own technical indicators and the turbulence of traditional markets.

Bollinger提到的經典地板提供了一線希望，但是外部變量使方程式變得複雜。比特幣在其自己的技術指標和傳統市場的動蕩之間導航。

However, some believe it will be the big winner of the trade war.

但是，有些人認為這將是貿易戰的最大贏家。