随着比特币徘徊在80,00美元左右，一个燃烧的问题徘徊：加密王者国王终于找到了它的地板？

技术分析的传奇人物，同名乐队的创造者约翰·布林格（John Bollinger）带来了希望。据他说，技术信号

As bitcoin hovers around $82,000, a burning question lingers among investors: has the king of cryptos finally found its floor? A legend in technical analysis, John Bollinger, creator of the eponymous Bands, brings a glimmer of hope. According to him, technical signals suggest a rebound scenario. But caution: behind this enticing perspective lie traps to decipher.

随着比特币徘徊在82,000美元左右，投资者中的一个燃烧的问题徘徊：加密王者国王终于找到了它的地板？同名乐队的创建者约翰·布林格（John Bollinger）是技术分析的传奇人物，带来了一丝希望。据他说，技术信号暗示了反弹的情况。但是要谨慎：在这种诱人的透视谎言背后诱捕破译。

Bollinger Bands and %b: The W that Intrigues

布林乐队和％b：w

On the weekly charts of BTC, a familiar silhouette appears: a double bottom in the shape of a W. For Bollinger, this setup is a historical marker of bullish reversal.

在BTC的每周图表中，出现了一个熟悉的轮廓：W w w w the the。对于Bollinger，这种设置是看涨逆转的历史标志。

The %b indicator, measuring the price’s position relative to the Bands, plays a key role here. When its value dips below zero before rising again, then retesting this level without breaking it, the W mechanics come into play.

％b指标衡量了价格相对于频段的位置，在这里起着关键作用。当它的值在再次上升之前下降到零以下，然后重新测试此水平而不会破坏它时，W机械师就会发挥作用。

A scenario awaiting confirmation. Currently, bitcoin brushes against the lower band, but the central moving average (20 periods) holds firm. “The W is there, but it lacks validation,” Bollinger specifies.

等待确认的方案。目前，比特币对较低的乐队进行了刷子，但中央移动平均线（20个时期）保持公司。 “ W存在，但缺乏验证，” Bollinger指定。

In other words, as long as the price does not surpass the median SMA – located around $85,000 – doubts persist. Buyers remain on the lookout, scrutinizing every movement.

换句话说，只要价格没有超过中位数SMA（约85,000美元）的中位数，疑问就会持续存在。买家继续监视，仔细检查每个动作。

The weight of correlations. In the shadows, another index disturbs the waters: synchronization with the stock markets. The S&P 500, like bitcoin, hovers near its oversold levels.

相关的重量。在阴影中，另一个索引打扰了水域：与股票市场同步。标准普尔500指数，例如比特币，徘徊在其超售水平附近。

Jurrien Timmer (Fidelity) notes that the flagship index grazed two standard deviations below its trend, a rare signal but not yet extreme. For BTC, this symbiosis indicates an increased dependence on the ups and downs of Wall Street.

Jurrien Timmer（Fidelity）指出，该旗舰指数在其趋势以下的两个标准偏差放牧，这是一个罕见的信号，但尚未极端。对于BTC，这种共生表明对华尔街的起伏的依赖增加。

Nasdaq -10%: The Trap to Avoid for Bitcoin

纳斯达克-10％：避免比特币的陷阱

If the Bollinger Bands outline a possible reversal, the macroeconomic context could ruin everything.

如果布林乐队概述了可能的逆转，那么宏观经济的环境可能会破坏一切。

Timothy Peterson, a specialized economist, warns: “Bitcoin anticipated the Nasdaq’s decline. But to bounce back, it must wait for the US tech stocks to hit bottom.” A scenario that would imply an additional 10% drop for the index, according to his models.

专业的经济学家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）警告说：“比特币预计纳斯达克的下降。但是要反弹，它必须等待美国科技股的最低点。”根据他的模型，这种方案将暗示该指数下降10％。

$70,000: The psychological threshold? Analysts converge on this level, a mix of technical support and market psychology.

$ 70,000：心理门槛？分析师在此层面上汇聚，这是技术支持和市场心理学的混合。

Peterson reminds us that at this stage, historical probabilities give a 95% chance that bitcoin stabilizes its fall. But beware: this threshold also acts as a liquidity magnet, attracting stop-loss orders and amplifying volatility.

彼得森提醒我们，在此阶段，历史概率给比特币稳定了95％的机会。但是要当心：这个阈值也充当流动性磁铁，吸引了停止损失的订单并放大波动率。

Peterson highlights a lesser-known mechanism: bitcoin, perceived as the riskiest asset, reacts after equity indices. In clear terms, the Nasdaq must first show signs of recovery for capital to flow into cryptos. A logic that places investors in a strategic wait, between caution and opportunism.

彼得森强调了一种鲜为人知的机制：被视为最风险的资产的比特币在股权指数后做出反应。从明确的角度来看，纳斯达克必须首先显示资本回收的迹象，以使资本流入加密货币。一种使投资者在谨慎和机会主义之间进行战略等待的逻辑。

The classic floor mentioned by Bollinger offers a glimmer of hope, but external variables complicate the equation. Bitcoin navigates between its own technical indicators and the turbulence of traditional markets.

Bollinger提到的经典地板提供了一线希望，但是外部变量使方程式变得复杂。比特币在其自己的技术指标和传统市场的动荡之间导航。

However, some believe it will be the big winner of the trade war.

但是，有些人认为这将是贸易战的最大赢家。