比特幣減半影響市場的波動性和前景

4 月 20 日，比特幣經歷了第四次減半事件，礦工的區塊獎勵減少了一半，至 3.125 BTC。減半後，專家們對比特幣的價格軌跡表達了不同的看法，摩根大通預測比特幣可能會下跌，而 Bitwise 則強調了表明長期上漲的歷史數據。截至撰寫本文之日，比特幣的價格經歷了一些波動，但仍保持在一定範圍內。

Bitcoin Halving: Assessing the Impact and Market Outlook

比特幣減半：評估影響與市場前景

On April 20th, 2024, the fourth Bitcoin halving event occurred successfully, marking a significant milestone in the cryptocurrency's history. The halving event, which occurs approximately every four years, reduces the block reward for miners by half, effectively decreasing the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market.

2024年4月20日，比特幣第四次減半事件成功發生，標誌著加密貨幣史上的重要里程碑。大約每四年發生一次的減半事件將礦工的區塊獎勵減少了一半，從而有效地減少了進入市場的新比特幣的供應。

Market Predictions and Historical Analysis

市場預測與歷史分析

Leading financial institution JPMorgan predicts that Bitcoin prices may experience a decline in the aftermath of the halving, suggesting that the event may have already been factored into the current market sentiment. Additionally, Bitcoin remains technically overbought, as indicated by the high open interest in futures contracts.

領先的金融機構摩根大通預測，減半後比特幣價格可能會下跌，這表明該事件可能已經被納入當前的市場情緒中。此外，從技術上講，比特幣仍然處於超買狀態，期貨合約的未平倉合約數量很高就表明了這一點。

However, historical data analyzed by Bitwise reveals that Bitcoin prices typically display minor fluctuations for about a month following a halving event. In subsequent years, however, returns tend to reach triple-digit levels. In 2020, Bitcoin prices increased by a modest 6% in the first month following the halving, only to surge by an impressive 548% in the subsequent year.

然而，Bitwise 分析的歷史數據顯示，比特幣價格通常在減半事件後約一個月內出現小幅波動。然而，在隨後的幾年中，回報率往往達到三位數水準。 2020 年，比特幣價格在減半後的第一個月小幅上漲 6%，但在接下來的一年飆升了 548%，令人印象深刻。

ETF Landscape and Regulatory Outlook

ETF格局與監理展望

BlackRock's Spot Bitcoin ETF (iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT) is rapidly gaining market share, closing the gap with Grayscale's long-standing Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC). IBIT currently holds a 32.6% market share, trailing GBTC's 36.8%, as investors continue to seek exposure to Bitcoin through exchange-traded funds. BlackRock's ETF now holds approximately US$16.8 billion in Bitcoin, trailing GBTC by a mere US$2.2 billion.

貝萊德的現貨比特幣 ETF (iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT) 正在迅速擴大市場份額，縮小與 Grayscale 長期存在的比特幣信託 ETF (GBTC) 的差距。隨著投資者繼續透過交易所交易基金尋求投資比特幣，IBIT 目前佔據 32.6% 的市場份額，落後於 GBTC 的 36.8%。貝萊德的 ETF 目前持有約 168 億美元的比特幣，僅落後 GBTC 22 億美元。

Grayscale, a leading provider of digital asset investment products, remains confident in the future regulatory approval of other cryptocurrency ETFs beyond Bitcoin, as global regulatory bodies gain greater confidence in the cryptocurrency landscape. This outlook is supported by the successful launch and impressive performance of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have emerged among the most popular ETFs listed on the stock market.

隨著全球監管機構對加密貨幣領域的信心增強，數位資產投資產品領先提供商 Grayscale 對比特幣以外的其他加密貨幣 ETF 的未來監管批准仍然充滿信心。這一前景得到了現貨比特幣 ETF 的成功推出和令人印象深刻的表現的支持，這些 ETF 已成為股市上市的最受歡迎的 ETF 之一。

DeFi Market Analysis and Innovation

DeFi市場分析與創新

The DeFi Report, an industry-leading publication, has disclosed that Ethereum's revenue in Q1 2024 nearly doubled, reaching a 200% increase with a profit of US$123 million in Q4 2023. This surge is attributed to a significant uptick in DeFi activity.

業界領先出版物《DeFi Report》披露，以太坊2024 年第一季的營收幾乎翻了一番，2023 年第四季達到200% 的成長，利潤達到1.23 億美元。的大幅增加。

The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols has reached US$97 billion in Q1 2024, nearly double the amount reported in the previous quarter. The primary drivers of this growth are Lido and EigenLayer, protocols specializing in liquid restaking, a mechanism that allows users to stake their assets without losing liquidity.

2024 年第一季度，DeFi 協議的鎖定總價值 (TVL) 已達到 970 億美元，幾乎是上一季報告金額的兩倍。這一增長的主要驅動力是 Lido 和 EigenLayer，它們是專門從事流動性重新抵押的協議，這種機制允許用戶在不損失流動性的情況下抵押其資產。

Merger of AI Projects

AI項目合併

In a significant development within the artificial intelligence (AI) space, token holders of Fetch.ai (FET), SingularityNET (AGIX), and Ocean Protocol (OCEAN) have approved a merger under the new name "Artificial Superintelligence Alliance" (ASI), with a combined valuation of approximately US$7.5 billion. The official launch of ASI is scheduled for May 24th, 2024.

在人工智慧(AI) 領域的一項重大發展中，Fetch.ai (FET)、SingularityNET (AGIX) 和海洋協議(OCEAN) 的代幣持有者已批准合併，並更名為「人工智慧超級智慧聯盟」(ASI) ，總估值約為75億美元。 ASI預定於2024年5月24日正式啟動。

Worldcoin's Layer 2 Blockchain

世界幣的第 2 層區塊鏈

Worldcoin, a non-profit organization dedicated to creating a global digital identity system, is set to launch a Layer 2 blockchain called World Chain. This new blockchain aims to improve efficiency and enhance the user experience by providing a scalable and cost-effective platform for Worldcoin's identity verification services. The network is expected to go live this summer.

Worldcoin 是一家致力於創建全球數位身分系統的非營利組織，即將推出名為 World Chain 的第 2 層區塊鏈。這個新的區塊鏈旨在透過為世界幣的身份驗證服務提供可擴展且經濟高效的平台來提高效率並增強用戶體驗。該網絡預計將於今年夏天上線。

Technical Analysis of Key Cryptocurrencies

關鍵加密貨幣的技術分析

Bitcoin (BTC)

比特幣（BTC）

BTC has recently experienced a pullback to a support level of TH฿2,200,000 baht, suggesting a potential reversal in the downtrend. If BTC can successfully break through the next resistance level at TH฿2,517,000, it will confirm a reversal and could potentially test the TH฿2,600,000 resistance. Conversely, if the price falls below the previous support of TH฿2,200,000, investors should exercise caution and consider delaying further investments.

BTC 最近回調至 2,200,000 泰銖的支撐位，顯示下跌趨勢可能出現逆轉。如果 BTC 能夠成功突破下一個阻力位 2,517,000 泰銖，則將確認反轉，並可能測試 2,600,000 泰銖的阻力位。相反，如果價格跌破先前支撐位 2,200,000 泰銖，投資者應謹慎行事並考慮推遲進一步投資。

Ethereum (ETH)

以太坊（ETH）

ETH recently hit a new low of TH฿106,000, but buying pressure has since emerged, shaping an upward trend. The first resistance is encountered at TH฿122,000. If this level is breached, ETH may retest its previous high. Investors should set a stop loss order if the price dips below the previous low of TH฿106,000.

ETH 最近觸及 106,000 泰銖的新低，但此後買盤壓力出現，形成上漲趨勢。第一個阻力位為 122,000 泰銖。如果突破該水平，ETH 可能會重新測試先前的高點。如果價格跌破之前的低點 106,000 泰銖，投資者應設定止損單。

Velo (VELO)

面紗（面紗）

VELO has witnessed a significant 48.04% increase over the past week, indicating a continuing upward trend. Investors are advised to buy on dips. The first support level to watch is TH฿0.600, which could present a buying opportunity if the price retraces to that level. The initial resistance target for profit-taking is set at TH฿0.800.

VELO過去一週大幅上漲48.04%，呈現持續上升趨勢。建議投資者逢低買進。值得關注的第一個支撐位是 0.600 泰銖，如果價格回撤至該水平，可能會提供買入機會。獲利了結的初始阻力目標設定為 0.800 泰銖。

Near Protocol (NEAR)

近協議（NEAR）

NEAR has risen by 20.57% over the past week, suggesting a reversal into an upward trend. The first resistance target is set at TH฿275, which could confirm a sustained uptrend. If the price dips, the support level at TH฿215 could serve as an entry point. However, if NEAR fails to hold this support, investors should cut losses and exit the trade.

NEAR在過去一週上漲了20.57%，顯示上漲趨勢出現逆轉。第一個阻力目標設定在 275 泰銖，這可以確認持續的上升趨勢。如果價格下跌，215泰銖的支撐位可以作為切入點。然而，如果 NEAR 未能守住此支撐位，投資者應減少損失並退出交易。

Trading and Investment Considerations

交易和投資注意事項

Following the Bitcoin halving on April 20th, there has not been a significant impact on Bitcoin's price. However, the absence of an escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel has allowed Bitcoin to recover some ground. Simultaneously, altcoins have rebounded at a faster pace.

4月20日比特幣減半後，比特幣價格並未受到重大影響。然而，伊朗和以色列之間的衝突並沒有升級，使得比特幣收復了一些失地。同時，山寨幣的反彈速度更快。

Data from Tradingview shows a decline in the Bitcoin Dominance index, accompanied by a rise in the Total3 index, which represents altcoins. This shift could signal a revival in the altcoin market's activity and sentiment.

Tradingview 的數據顯示，比特幣優勢指數下降，同時代表山寨幣的 Total3 指數上升。這種轉變可能標誌著山寨幣市場活動和情緒的復甦。

On April 25th, the United States will release its economic forecast for the next quarter. The market expects a 2.5% growth rate, down from the previous quarter's 3.4%. If the results align with these expectations, it could positively impact the market, as a slower economy might prompt the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates.

4月25日，美國將發布下一季經濟預測。市場預期成長率為2.5%，低於上一季的3.4%。如果結果符合這些預期，可能會對市場產生正面影響，因為經濟放緩可能會促使聯準會考慮降息。

This week, the first-quarter financial results for major U.S. tech stocks, including Tesla, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms, will be announced. These results can significantly impact U.S. stock market indices. If there's a sell-off

本週，特斯拉、Alphabet、微軟和 Meta Platforms 等美國主要科技股將公佈第一季財務業績。這些結果可能會對美國股市指數產生重大影響。如果出現拋售