比特币减半影响市场的波动性和前景

4 月 20 日，比特币经历了第四次减半事件，矿工的区块奖励减少了一半，至 3.125 BTC。减半后，专家们对比特币的价格轨迹表达了不同的看法，摩根大通预测比特币可能会下跌，而 Bitwise 则强调了表明长期上涨的历史数据。截至撰写本文之日，比特币的价格经历了一些波动，但仍保持在一定范围内。

Bitcoin Halving: Assessing the Impact and Market Outlook

比特币减半：评估影响和市场前景

On April 20th, 2024, the fourth Bitcoin halving event occurred successfully, marking a significant milestone in the cryptocurrency's history. The halving event, which occurs approximately every four years, reduces the block reward for miners by half, effectively decreasing the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market.

2024年4月20日，比特币第四次减半事件成功发生，标志着加密货币历史上的一个重要里程碑。大约每四年发生一次的减半事件将矿工的区块奖励减少了一半，从而有效地减少了进入市场的新比特币的供应。

Market Predictions and Historical Analysis

市场预测和历史分析

Leading financial institution JPMorgan predicts that Bitcoin prices may experience a decline in the aftermath of the halving, suggesting that the event may have already been factored into the current market sentiment. Additionally, Bitcoin remains technically overbought, as indicated by the high open interest in futures contracts.

领先的金融机构摩根大通预测，减半后比特币价格可能会下跌，这表明该事件可能已经被纳入当前的市场情绪中。此外，从技术上讲，比特币仍然处于超买状态，期货合约的未平仓合约数量很高就表明了这一点。

However, historical data analyzed by Bitwise reveals that Bitcoin prices typically display minor fluctuations for about a month following a halving event. In subsequent years, however, returns tend to reach triple-digit levels. In 2020, Bitcoin prices increased by a modest 6% in the first month following the halving, only to surge by an impressive 548% in the subsequent year.

然而，Bitwise 分析的历史数据显示，比特币价格通常在减半事件后约一个月内出现小幅波动。然而，在随后的几年中，回报率往往达到三位数水平。 2020 年，比特币价格在减半后的第一个月小幅上涨 6%，但在接下来的一年里飙升了 548%，令人印象深刻。

ETF Landscape and Regulatory Outlook

ETF格局和监管展望

BlackRock's Spot Bitcoin ETF (iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT) is rapidly gaining market share, closing the gap with Grayscale's long-standing Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC). IBIT currently holds a 32.6% market share, trailing GBTC's 36.8%, as investors continue to seek exposure to Bitcoin through exchange-traded funds. BlackRock's ETF now holds approximately US$16.8 billion in Bitcoin, trailing GBTC by a mere US$2.2 billion.

贝莱德的现货比特币 ETF (iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT) 正在迅速扩大市场份额，缩小与 Grayscale 长期存在的比特币信托 ETF (GBTC) 的差距。随着投资者继续通过交易所交易基金寻求投资比特币，IBIT 目前占据 32.6% 的市场份额，落后于 GBTC 的 36.8%。贝莱德的 ETF 目前持有约 168 亿美元的比特币，仅落后 GBTC 22 亿美元。

Grayscale, a leading provider of digital asset investment products, remains confident in the future regulatory approval of other cryptocurrency ETFs beyond Bitcoin, as global regulatory bodies gain greater confidence in the cryptocurrency landscape. This outlook is supported by the successful launch and impressive performance of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have emerged among the most popular ETFs listed on the stock market.

随着全球监管机构对加密货币领域的信心增强，数字资产投资产品领先提供商 Grayscale 对比特币以外的其他加密货币 ETF 的未来监管批准仍然充满信心。这一前景得到了现货比特币 ETF 的成功推出和令人印象深刻的表现的支持，这些 ETF 已成为股市上市的最受欢迎的 ETF 之一。

DeFi Market Analysis and Innovation

DeFi市场分析与创新

The DeFi Report, an industry-leading publication, has disclosed that Ethereum's revenue in Q1 2024 nearly doubled, reaching a 200% increase with a profit of US$123 million in Q4 2023. This surge is attributed to a significant uptick in DeFi activity.

行业领先出版物《DeFi Report》披露，以太坊 2024 年第一季度的收入几乎翻了一番，2023 年第四季度达到 200% 的增长，利润达到 1.23 亿美元。这一激增归因于 DeFi 活动的大幅增加。

The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols has reached US$97 billion in Q1 2024, nearly double the amount reported in the previous quarter. The primary drivers of this growth are Lido and EigenLayer, protocols specializing in liquid restaking, a mechanism that allows users to stake their assets without losing liquidity.

2024 年第一季度，DeFi 协议的锁定总价值 (TVL) 已达到 970 亿美元，几乎是上一季度报告金额的两倍。这一增长的主要驱动力是 Lido 和 EigenLayer，它们是专门从事流动性重新抵押的协议，这种机制允许用户在不损失流动性的情况下抵押其资产。

Merger of AI Projects

AI项目合并

In a significant development within the artificial intelligence (AI) space, token holders of Fetch.ai (FET), SingularityNET (AGIX), and Ocean Protocol (OCEAN) have approved a merger under the new name "Artificial Superintelligence Alliance" (ASI), with a combined valuation of approximately US$7.5 billion. The official launch of ASI is scheduled for May 24th, 2024.

在人工智能 (AI) 领域的一项重大发展中，Fetch.ai (FET)、SingularityNET (AGIX) 和海洋协议 (OCEAN) 的代币持有者已批准合并，并更名为“人工智能超级智能联盟”(ASI) ，总估值约为75亿美元。 ASI定于2024年5月24日正式启动。

Worldcoin's Layer 2 Blockchain

世界币的第 2 层区块链

Worldcoin, a non-profit organization dedicated to creating a global digital identity system, is set to launch a Layer 2 blockchain called World Chain. This new blockchain aims to improve efficiency and enhance the user experience by providing a scalable and cost-effective platform for Worldcoin's identity verification services. The network is expected to go live this summer.

Worldcoin 是一家致力于创建全球数字身份系统的非营利组织，即将推出名为 World Chain 的第 2 层区块链。这个新的区块链旨在通过为世界币的身份验证服务提供可扩展且经济高效的平台来提高效率并增强用户体验。该网络预计将于今年夏天上线。

Technical Analysis of Key Cryptocurrencies

关键加密货币的技术分析

Bitcoin (BTC)

比特币（BTC）

BTC has recently experienced a pullback to a support level of TH฿2,200,000 baht, suggesting a potential reversal in the downtrend. If BTC can successfully break through the next resistance level at TH฿2,517,000, it will confirm a reversal and could potentially test the TH฿2,600,000 resistance. Conversely, if the price falls below the previous support of TH฿2,200,000, investors should exercise caution and consider delaying further investments.

BTC 最近回调至 2,200,000 泰铢的支撑位，表明下跌趋势可能出现逆转。如果 BTC 能够成功突破下一个阻力位 2,517,000 泰铢，则将确认反转，并可能测试 2,600,000 泰铢的阻力位。相反，如果价格跌破先前支撑位 2,200,000 泰铢，投资者应谨慎行事并考虑推迟进一步投资。

Ethereum (ETH)

以太坊（ETH）

ETH recently hit a new low of TH฿106,000, but buying pressure has since emerged, shaping an upward trend. The first resistance is encountered at TH฿122,000. If this level is breached, ETH may retest its previous high. Investors should set a stop loss order if the price dips below the previous low of TH฿106,000.

ETH 最近触及 106,000 泰铢的新低，但此后买盘压力出现，形成上涨趋势。第一个阻力位为 122,000 泰铢。如果突破该水平，ETH 可能会重新测试之前的高点。如果价格跌破之前的低点 106,000 泰铢，投资者应设置止损单。

Velo (VELO)

面纱（面纱）

VELO has witnessed a significant 48.04% increase over the past week, indicating a continuing upward trend. Investors are advised to buy on dips. The first support level to watch is TH฿0.600, which could present a buying opportunity if the price retraces to that level. The initial resistance target for profit-taking is set at TH฿0.800.

VELO过去一周大幅上涨48.04%，呈现持续上升趋势。建议投资者逢低买入。值得关注的第一个支撑位是 0.600 泰铢，如果价格回撤至该水平，可能会提供买入机会。获利了结的初始阻力目标设定为 0.800 泰铢。

Near Protocol (NEAR)

近协议（NEAR）

NEAR has risen by 20.57% over the past week, suggesting a reversal into an upward trend. The first resistance target is set at TH฿275, which could confirm a sustained uptrend. If the price dips, the support level at TH฿215 could serve as an entry point. However, if NEAR fails to hold this support, investors should cut losses and exit the trade.

NEAR在过去一周上涨了20.57%，表明上涨趋势出现逆转。第一个阻力目标设定在 275 泰铢，这可以确认持续的上升趋势。如果价格下跌，215泰铢的支撑位可以作为切入点。然而，如果 NEAR 未能守住这一支撑位，投资者应减少损失并退出交易。

Trading and Investment Considerations

交易和投资注意事项

Following the Bitcoin halving on April 20th, there has not been a significant impact on Bitcoin's price. However, the absence of an escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel has allowed Bitcoin to recover some ground. Simultaneously, altcoins have rebounded at a faster pace.

4月20日比特币减半后，比特币价格并未受到重大影响。然而，伊朗和以色列之间的冲突没有升级，使得比特币收复了一些失地。与此同时，山寨币的反弹速度更快。

Data from Tradingview shows a decline in the Bitcoin Dominance index, accompanied by a rise in the Total3 index, which represents altcoins. This shift could signal a revival in the altcoin market's activity and sentiment.

Tradingview 的数据显示，比特币优势指数下降，同时代表山寨币的 Total3 指数上升。这种转变可能标志着山寨币市场活动和情绪的复苏。

On April 25th, the United States will release its economic forecast for the next quarter. The market expects a 2.5% growth rate, down from the previous quarter's 3.4%. If the results align with these expectations, it could positively impact the market, as a slower economy might prompt the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates.

4月25日，美国将发布下一季度经济预测。市场预期增长率为2.5%，低于上一季度的3.4%。如果结果符合这些预期，可能会对市场产生积极影响，因为经济放缓可能会促使美联储考虑降息。

This week, the first-quarter financial results for major U.S. tech stocks, including Tesla, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms, will be announced. These results can significantly impact U.S. stock market indices. If there's a sell-off

本周，特斯拉、Alphabet、微软和 Meta Platforms 等美国主要科技股将公布第一季度财务业绩。这些结果可能会对美国股市指数产生重大影响。如果出现抛售