Bitcoin Halving Impacts Market with Volatility and Promise

On April 20th, Bitcoin underwent its fourth halving event, whereby the block reward for miners was reduced by half to 3.125 BTC. Following the halving, experts have expressed varying opinions on Bitcoin's price trajectory, with JPMorgan predicting a potential decline and Bitwise highlighting historical data indicating long-term gains. As of the date of writing, Bitcoin's price has experienced some fluctuations but remains within a range.

Bitcoin Halving: Assessing the Impact and Market Outlook

On April 20th, 2024, the fourth Bitcoin halving event occurred successfully, marking a significant milestone in the cryptocurrency's history. The halving event, which occurs approximately every four years, reduces the block reward for miners by half, effectively decreasing the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market.

Market Predictions and Historical Analysis

Leading financial institution JPMorgan predicts that Bitcoin prices may experience a decline in the aftermath of the halving, suggesting that the event may have already been factored into the current market sentiment. Additionally, Bitcoin remains technically overbought, as indicated by the high open interest in futures contracts.

However, historical data analyzed by Bitwise reveals that Bitcoin prices typically display minor fluctuations for about a month following a halving event. In subsequent years, however, returns tend to reach triple-digit levels. In 2020, Bitcoin prices increased by a modest 6% in the first month following the halving, only to surge by an impressive 548% in the subsequent year.

ETF Landscape and Regulatory Outlook

BlackRock's Spot Bitcoin ETF (iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT) is rapidly gaining market share, closing the gap with Grayscale's long-standing Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC). IBIT currently holds a 32.6% market share, trailing GBTC's 36.8%, as investors continue to seek exposure to Bitcoin through exchange-traded funds. BlackRock's ETF now holds approximately US$16.8 billion in Bitcoin, trailing GBTC by a mere US$2.2 billion.

Grayscale, a leading provider of digital asset investment products, remains confident in the future regulatory approval of other cryptocurrency ETFs beyond Bitcoin, as global regulatory bodies gain greater confidence in the cryptocurrency landscape. This outlook is supported by the successful launch and impressive performance of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have emerged among the most popular ETFs listed on the stock market.

DeFi Market Analysis and Innovation

The DeFi Report, an industry-leading publication, has disclosed that Ethereum's revenue in Q1 2024 nearly doubled, reaching a 200% increase with a profit of US$123 million in Q4 2023. This surge is attributed to a significant uptick in DeFi activity.

The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols has reached US$97 billion in Q1 2024, nearly double the amount reported in the previous quarter. The primary drivers of this growth are Lido and EigenLayer, protocols specializing in liquid restaking, a mechanism that allows users to stake their assets without losing liquidity.

Merger of AI Projects

In a significant development within the artificial intelligence (AI) space, token holders of Fetch.ai (FET), SingularityNET (AGIX), and Ocean Protocol (OCEAN) have approved a merger under the new name "Artificial Superintelligence Alliance" (ASI), with a combined valuation of approximately US$7.5 billion. The official launch of ASI is scheduled for May 24th, 2024.

Worldcoin's Layer 2 Blockchain

Worldcoin, a non-profit organization dedicated to creating a global digital identity system, is set to launch a Layer 2 blockchain called World Chain. This new blockchain aims to improve efficiency and enhance the user experience by providing a scalable and cost-effective platform for Worldcoin's identity verification services. The network is expected to go live this summer.

Technical Analysis of Key Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin (BTC)

BTC has recently experienced a pullback to a support level of TH฿2,200,000 baht, suggesting a potential reversal in the downtrend. If BTC can successfully break through the next resistance level at TH฿2,517,000, it will confirm a reversal and could potentially test the TH฿2,600,000 resistance. Conversely, if the price falls below the previous support of TH฿2,200,000, investors should exercise caution and consider delaying further investments.

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH recently hit a new low of TH฿106,000, but buying pressure has since emerged, shaping an upward trend. The first resistance is encountered at TH฿122,000. If this level is breached, ETH may retest its previous high. Investors should set a stop loss order if the price dips below the previous low of TH฿106,000.

Velo (VELO)

VELO has witnessed a significant 48.04% increase over the past week, indicating a continuing upward trend. Investors are advised to buy on dips. The first support level to watch is TH฿0.600, which could present a buying opportunity if the price retraces to that level. The initial resistance target for profit-taking is set at TH฿0.800.

Near Protocol (NEAR)

NEAR has risen by 20.57% over the past week, suggesting a reversal into an upward trend. The first resistance target is set at TH฿275, which could confirm a sustained uptrend. If the price dips, the support level at TH฿215 could serve as an entry point. However, if NEAR fails to hold this support, investors should cut losses and exit the trade.

Trading and Investment Considerations

Following the Bitcoin halving on April 20th, there has not been a significant impact on Bitcoin's price. However, the absence of an escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel has allowed Bitcoin to recover some ground. Simultaneously, altcoins have rebounded at a faster pace.

Data from Tradingview shows a decline in the Bitcoin Dominance index, accompanied by a rise in the Total3 index, which represents altcoins. This shift could signal a revival in the altcoin market's activity and sentiment.

On April 25th, the United States will release its economic forecast for the next quarter. The market expects a 2.5% growth rate, down from the previous quarter's 3.4%. If the results align with these expectations, it could positively impact the market, as a slower economy might prompt the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates.

This week, the first-quarter financial results for major U.S. tech stocks, including Tesla, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms, will be announced. These results can significantly impact U.S. stock market indices. If there's a sell-off