比特幣減半炒作是否言過其實？

最近的比特幣價格波動可能是由於交易者對即將到來的減半事件的猜測造成的。 Beam 執行長 Andy Bromberg 表示，市場通常會在減半之前經歷價格飆升，然後急劇下跌。 Bromberg 認為，市場目前正處於本週期的後期階段，比特幣最近從 73,000 美元以上跌至 62,000 美元以下就證明了這一點。

Is the Bitcoin Halving Hype Overblown?

比特幣減半炒作是否言過其實？

The recent Bitcoin volatility is a clear sign that traders are speculating on the upcoming halving, but this is not uncommon, according to Beam CEO Andy Bromberg.

Beam 執行長 Andy Bromberg 表示，最近的比特幣波動是一個明顯的跡象，表明交易者正在猜測即將到來的減半，但這並不罕見。

"In the months leading up to the event, the narrative around the price heading up tends to drive things," he explained. "Then, right before the halving, everyone has this crisis of faith and you get into this whipsaw volatility."

「在活動開始前的幾個月裡，圍繞價格上漲的敘事往往會推動事情發展，」他解釋道。 “然後，就在減半之前，每個人都面臨著這種信仰危機，你就會陷入這種鋸齒狀的波動。”

And that's where Bromberg believes the industry is right now. In just the past week, Bitcoin soared past $73,000 to set a new all-time high and then plunged below $62,000.

布隆伯格認為，這就是該產業目前的處境。就在過去一周，比特幣飆升至 73,000 美元以上，創下歷史新高，然後跌破 62,000 美元。

As of this writing, the Bitcoin price is just shy of $65,000 after losing 3% in the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinGecko.

根據 CoinGecko 的數據，截至撰寫本文時，比特幣價格在過去 24 小時內下跌 3% 後略低於 65,000 美元。

What is the Bitcoin Halving?

什麼是比特幣減半？

As its name suggests, the Bitcoin halving cuts the amount of new Bitcoin rewarded to miners in half. It has occurred three times so far since Bitcoin was first launched in January 2009.

顧名思義，比特幣減半將獎勵給礦工的新比特幣數量減少一半。自 2009 年 1 月比特幣首次推出以來，這種情況已經發生過 3 次。

At the time of writing, it appears that the next halving will land on April 27, according to NiceHash. However, since the halving is scheduled to occur after a certain number of blocks have been mined on the Bitcoin network, it's difficult to pin down.

據 NiceHash 稱，在撰寫本文時，下一次減半似乎將於 4 月 27 日到來。然而，由於減半計劃在比特幣網路上開採一定數量的區塊後發生，因此很難確定。

It's the same reason why the arrival time on a GPS will fluctuate throughout a journey. It's constantly being recalculated with the assumption that you (or your bike or car) will keep going at your current speed for the rest of the trip. But of course, that's not always true or feasible.

這與 GPS 上的到達時間在整個旅程中出現波動的原因相同。它會不斷地重新計算，假設您（或您的自行車或汽車）將在剩餘的行程中繼續以當前的速度行駛。但當然，這並不總是正確或可行的。

At the beginning of last week, in the run-up to Bitcoin setting a new all-time high and amid significantly higher Bitcoin volume, the NiceHash countdown showed that the halving would occur as early as April 15.

上週初，在比特幣創下歷史新高之前，比特幣交易量顯著增加，NiceHash 倒數計時顯示減半最早將在 4 月 15 日發生。

The Bitcoin Halving and Price

比特幣減半和價格

Historically, when the amount of new Bitcoin entering the market is cut in half roughly every four years, it has kicked off a price rally.

從歷史上看，當進入市場的新比特幣數量大約每四年減少一半時，就會引發價格上漲。

Leading up to the first halving on November 28, 2012, the price of Bitcoin saw a substantial increase. Since Bitcoin had first launched in January 2009, it had gone from being worth less than a penny to $12.

2012年11月28日第一次減半前，比特幣價格大幅上漲。自 2009 年 1 月比特幣首次推出以來，它的價值已經從不到 1 便士升至 12 美元。

Then, in the months following the halving, the price continued to rise, eventually surpassing $100 for the first time in April 2013. This was due in part to growing awareness and adoption of Bitcoin.

然後，在減半後的幾個月裡，價格繼續上漲，最終在 2013 年 4 月首次突破 100 美元。這在一定程度上是由於人們對比特幣的認識和採用不斷增強。

In the months leading up to the second halving on July 9, 2016, the BTC price was relatively stable. But immediately after the halving, the price of Bitcoin experienced a gradual but steady increase, culminating in a dramatic surge to set an all-time high of $19,783.06 in December 2017.

在2016年7月9日第二次減半前的幾個月裡，BTC價格相對穩定。但減半後，比特幣的價格立即經歷了逐漸但穩定的上漲，最終在 2017 年 12 月大幅飆升，創下 19,783.06 美元的歷史新高。

Just before the third halving on May 11, 2020, the price experienced volatility and a significant dip. The COVID-19 pandemic had led to social distancing orders, and by March 2020 the uncertainty was taking a toll on the economy. Post-halving, the price began to recover and saw a significant rally starting in late 2020 into 2021, when it soared to $69,000 and set a new all-time high.

就在2020年5月11日第三次減半前，價格經歷了波動和大幅下跌。 COVID-19 大流行導致社會疏遠令，到 2020 年 3 月，不確定性對經濟造成了影響。減半後，價格開始回升，並從 2020 年底開始到 2021 年大幅反彈，當時飆升至 69,000 美元，創下歷史新高。

Is This Halving Different?

這次減半有什麼不同嗎？

However, Bromberg said there are a few factors that make this halving different from the others.

然而，布羅姆伯格表示，有一些因素使本次減半與其他減半有所不同。

"It's unlikely the demand [for Bitcoin] is about to change," he said. "Especially with ETFs. Now, you have this whole new demand driver. We've been looking at these inflows the last few days, and it's been substantial."

「（對比特幣）的需求不太可能發生變化，」他說。 “尤其是 ETF。現在，你有了全新的需求驅動力。過去幾天我們一直在關注這些資金流入，規模很大。”

Last week alone, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs bought up almost 36,000 BTC, according to CoinGlass. This week things have been more subdued, with four straight days of net outflows since a flash crash on Monday.

據 CoinGlass 稱，光是上週，美國現貨比特幣 ETF 就買入了近 36,000 枚 BTC。本週情況更加溫和，自周一閃崩以來已連續四天出現淨流出。

There have been predictions that the halving and continued demand from investors driven by the ETFs could create a liquidity crisis, but Bromberg is not convinced. Especially since many of the ETF investors are not necessarily long-term, dogmatic holders. In his experience, they buy and sell shares as it suits their portfolio.

有人預測，ETF 減半和投資者的持續需求可能會造成流動性危機，但布羅姆伯格不相信。特別是因為許多 ETF 投資者不一定是長期、教條的持有者。根據他的經驗，他們會根據自己的投資組合買賣股票。

"I think broadly the Bitcoin markets, especially at this point, and especially with ETFs, and futures—these markets are deep and liquid," he said. "There's definitely not like a liquidity crisis situation."

他表示：“我認為，總體而言，比特幣市場，尤其是目前的比特幣市場，尤其是 ETF 和期貨市場，這些市場都是深度且流動性強的。” “絕對不會出現流動性危機的情況。”