比特币减半炒作是否言过其实？

最近的比特币价格波动可能是由于交易者对即将到来的减半事件的猜测造成的。 Beam 首席执行官安迪·布罗姆伯格 (Andy Bromberg) 表示，市场通常会在减半之前经历价格飙升，然后急剧下跌。 Bromberg 认为，市场目前正处于本周期的后期阶段，比特币最近从 73,000 美元以上跌至 62,000 美元以下就证明了这一点。

Is the Bitcoin Halving Hype Overblown?

比特币减半炒作是否言过其实？

The recent Bitcoin volatility is a clear sign that traders are speculating on the upcoming halving, but this is not uncommon, according to Beam CEO Andy Bromberg.

Beam 首席执行官安迪·布罗姆伯格 (Andy Bromberg) 表示，最近的比特币波动是一个明显的迹象，表明交易者正在猜测即将到来的减半，但这并不罕见。

"In the months leading up to the event, the narrative around the price heading up tends to drive things," he explained. "Then, right before the halving, everyone has this crisis of faith and you get into this whipsaw volatility."

“在活动开始前的几个月里，围绕价格上涨的叙述往往会推动事情发展，”他解释道。 “然后，就在减半之前，每个人都面临着这种信仰危机，你就会陷入这种锯齿状的波动。”

And that's where Bromberg believes the industry is right now. In just the past week, Bitcoin soared past $73,000 to set a new all-time high and then plunged below $62,000.

布隆伯格认为，这就是该行业目前的处境。就在过去一周，比特币飙升至 73,000 美元以上，创下历史新高，然后跌破 62,000 美元。

As of this writing, the Bitcoin price is just shy of $65,000 after losing 3% in the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinGecko.

根据 CoinGecko 的数据，截至撰写本文时，比特币价格在过去 24 小时内下跌 3% 后略低于 65,000 美元。

What is the Bitcoin Halving?

什么是比特币减半？

As its name suggests, the Bitcoin halving cuts the amount of new Bitcoin rewarded to miners in half. It has occurred three times so far since Bitcoin was first launched in January 2009.

顾名思义，比特币减半将奖励给矿工的新比特币数量减少一半。自 2009 年 1 月比特币首次推出以来，这种情况已经发生过 3 次。

At the time of writing, it appears that the next halving will land on April 27, according to NiceHash. However, since the halving is scheduled to occur after a certain number of blocks have been mined on the Bitcoin network, it's difficult to pin down.

据 NiceHash 称，在撰写本文时，下一次减半似乎将于 4 月 27 日到来。然而，由于减半计划在比特币网络上开采一定数量的区块后发生，因此很难确定。

It's the same reason why the arrival time on a GPS will fluctuate throughout a journey. It's constantly being recalculated with the assumption that you (or your bike or car) will keep going at your current speed for the rest of the trip. But of course, that's not always true or feasible.

这与 GPS 上的到达时间在整个旅程中出现波动的原因相同。它会不断地重新计算，假设您（或您的自行车或汽车）将在剩余的行程中继续以当前的速度行驶。但当然，这并不总是正确或可行的。

At the beginning of last week, in the run-up to Bitcoin setting a new all-time high and amid significantly higher Bitcoin volume, the NiceHash countdown showed that the halving would occur as early as April 15.

上周初，在比特币创下历史新高之前，比特币交易量显着增加，NiceHash 倒计时显示减半最早将在 4 月 15 日发生。

The Bitcoin Halving and Price

比特币减半和价格

Historically, when the amount of new Bitcoin entering the market is cut in half roughly every four years, it has kicked off a price rally.

从历史上看，当进入市场的新比特币数量大约每四年减少一半时，就会引发价格上涨。

Leading up to the first halving on November 28, 2012, the price of Bitcoin saw a substantial increase. Since Bitcoin had first launched in January 2009, it had gone from being worth less than a penny to $12.

2012年11月28日第一次减半之前，比特币价格大幅上涨。自 2009 年 1 月比特币首次推出以来，它的价值已经从不足 1 便士升至 12 美元。

Then, in the months following the halving, the price continued to rise, eventually surpassing $100 for the first time in April 2013. This was due in part to growing awareness and adoption of Bitcoin.

然后，在减半后的几个月里，价格继续上涨，最终在 2013 年 4 月首次突破 100 美元。这在一定程度上是由于人们对比特币的认识和采用不断增强。

In the months leading up to the second halving on July 9, 2016, the BTC price was relatively stable. But immediately after the halving, the price of Bitcoin experienced a gradual but steady increase, culminating in a dramatic surge to set an all-time high of $19,783.06 in December 2017.

在2016年7月9日第二次减半之前的几个月里，BTC价格相对稳定。但减半后，比特币的价格立即经历了逐渐但稳定的上涨，最终在 2017 年 12 月大幅飙升，创下 19,783.06 美元的历史新高。

Just before the third halving on May 11, 2020, the price experienced volatility and a significant dip. The COVID-19 pandemic had led to social distancing orders, and by March 2020 the uncertainty was taking a toll on the economy. Post-halving, the price began to recover and saw a significant rally starting in late 2020 into 2021, when it soared to $69,000 and set a new all-time high.

就在2020年5月11日第三次减半之前，价格经历了波动和大幅下跌。 COVID-19 大流行导致社会疏远令，到 2020 年 3 月，不确定性对经济造成了影响。减半后，价格开始回升，并从 2020 年底开始到 2021 年出现大幅反弹，当时飙升至 69,000 美元，创下历史新高。

Is This Halving Different?

这次减半有什么不同吗？

However, Bromberg said there are a few factors that make this halving different from the others.

然而，布罗姆伯格表示，有一些因素使本次减半与其他减半有所不同。

"It's unlikely the demand [for Bitcoin] is about to change," he said. "Especially with ETFs. Now, you have this whole new demand driver. We've been looking at these inflows the last few days, and it's been substantial."

“（对比特币）的需求不太可能发生变化，”他说。 “尤其是 ETF。现在，你有了全新的需求驱动力。过去几天我们一直在关注这些资金流入，规模很大。”

Last week alone, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs bought up almost 36,000 BTC, according to CoinGlass. This week things have been more subdued, with four straight days of net outflows since a flash crash on Monday.

据 CoinGlass 称，仅上周，美国现货比特币 ETF 就买入了近 36,000 枚 BTC。本周情况更加温和，自周一闪崩以来已连续四天出现净流出。

There have been predictions that the halving and continued demand from investors driven by the ETFs could create a liquidity crisis, but Bromberg is not convinced. Especially since many of the ETF investors are not necessarily long-term, dogmatic holders. In his experience, they buy and sell shares as it suits their portfolio.

有人预测，ETF 减半和投资者的持续需求可能会造成流动性危机，但布罗姆伯格并不相信。特别是因为许多 ETF 投资者不一定是长期、教条的持有者。根据他的经验，他们会根据自己的投资组合买卖股票。

"I think broadly the Bitcoin markets, especially at this point, and especially with ETFs, and futures—these markets are deep and liquid," he said. "There's definitely not like a liquidity crisis situation."

他表示：“我认为，总体而言，比特币市场，尤其是目前的比特币市场，尤其是 ETF 和期货市场，这些市场都是深度且流动性强的。” “绝对不会出现流动性危机的情况。”