比特币减半日：全球动荡中的市场分水岭

Bitcoin's Halving Day: A Market Watershed Amidst Global Turbulence

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin (BTC) halving day approached, the crypto community awaited the quadrennial event that would reduce the issuance of new BTC by half. This landmark occasion on Saturday, May 13th, occurred amidst a complex web of global economic and geopolitical challenges.

A Tumultuous Pre-Halving Period

Leading up to the halving, the crypto market experienced a period of heightened volatility. Global inflation, escalating geopolitical tensions, and an uncertain global economy, beset by years of monetary easing, weighed heavily on the markets.

On the heels of an Israeli airstrike on Iran, Bitcoin plummeted to a low of $59,590. However, it swiftly rebounded, reaching a peak of $65,500 on Friday before settling around $64,300.

Equity Market Woes Impact Crypto

Fallout from the sell-off in Big Tech stocks spilled over into the equity markets, leading to a negative close for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, in contrast, managed a modest gain. This marked the S&P 500's sixth consecutive negative close, its longest losing streak of the year.

Weakness across the markets largely stemmed from conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy. Comments from Fed officials hinted at a possible delay in interest rate cuts until 2024 due to persistent inflation.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note and the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) both witnessed increases during the week.

Beyond the Halving Horizon

Analysts at Ryze Labs highlighted the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their impact on both traditional and crypto assets, underscoring that Bitcoin had yet to establish itself as a safe-haven asset among institutional investors.

"Funding rates across major cryptocurrencies turned sharply negative," the analysts noted, reflecting negative sentiment and widespread liquidations of long positions.

Hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell initially stirred the markets, but the reaction was muted, suggesting potential seller fatigue. Upcoming inflation data will be crucial in shaping future monetary policy decisions.

Historical Context and Market Expectations

Ryze Labs emphasized the historical significance of Bitcoin halvings, which have often been followed by significant price movements. The reduction in supply, coupled with steady or increasing demand, typically leads to higher prices.

For instance, post-halving in 2012, Bitcoin's price soared from $13 to nearly $1,000 by the end of 2013. Similarly, the stock prices of Bitcoin mining companies have experienced notable changes around halving events.

Ryan Grace, head of tastycrypto, downplayed the halving date as a catalyst for price action, suggesting it could result in a "sell the news" event. Traders who bought ahead of the halving were already invested in BTC, he asserted.

Grace expects corrections to be short-lived, based on the reference point of recent ETF approvals that triggered a temporary 20% correction in BTC's price. However, he emphasized that past halving cycles provide limited guidance, as BTC's price performance has varied in the months following the event.

Grace projected a potential BTC price above $150,000 in the 6 to 18 months post-halving, assuming it mirrors previous four-year cycles. He emphasized that the presence of ETFs and rising global liquidity would drive the price post-halving.

Altcoin Market Roundup

The altcoin market closed the week mixed, with several tokens in the top 200 posting gains. Saga (SAGA) led the winners with a 24.5% surge, followed by Jito (JTO) with 17.3% and dogwifhat (WIF) with 17%. Ribbon Finance (RBN) underperformed, declining by 13.2%, accompanied by losses of 6.9% for Livepeer (LPT) and 4.9% for Helium (HNT).

The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $2.34 trillion, while Bitcoin's dominance rate stood at 54.1%.

As the Bitcoin halving unfolds amidst a tumultuous global landscape, the crypto community eagerly anticipates the impact it will have on the market. The upcoming months will provide valuable insights into the long-term implications of this historic event and the future trajectory of the cryptocurrency industry.