比特币减半日：全球动荡中的市场分水岭

减半日到来之际，地缘政治紧张局势、通胀和复杂的经济信号导致市场波动加剧。尽管最初出现波动，但比特币扭转了损失并重新获得了支持，反映出加密货币的更广泛反弹。分析师预计减半后会出现短期波动，但预计供应减少和潜在需求增加将推动价格持续上涨。

Bitcoin's Halving Day: A Market Watershed Amidst Global Turbulence

比特币减半日：全球动荡中的市场分水岭

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin (BTC) halving day approached, the crypto community awaited the quadrennial event that would reduce the issuance of new BTC by half. This landmark occasion on Saturday, May 13th, occurred amidst a complex web of global economic and geopolitical challenges.

随着备受期待的比特币减半日的临近，加密社区等待着四年一度的事件，该事件将使新 BTC 的发行量减少一半。 5 月 13 日（星期六）这一具有里程碑意义的时刻是在全球经济和地缘政治挑战错综复杂的背景下发生的。

A Tumultuous Pre-Halving Period

动荡的减半前时期

Leading up to the halving, the crypto market experienced a period of heightened volatility. Global inflation, escalating geopolitical tensions, and an uncertain global economy, beset by years of monetary easing, weighed heavily on the markets.

在减半之前，加密货币市场经历了一段波动加剧的时期。全球通胀、不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势以及多年来货币宽松政策所困扰的全球经济的不确定性给市场带来了沉重压力。

On the heels of an Israeli airstrike on Iran, Bitcoin plummeted to a low of $59,590. However, it swiftly rebounded, reaching a peak of $65,500 on Friday before settling around $64,300.

以色列对伊朗发动空袭后，比特币暴跌至 59,590 美元的低点。然而，它迅速反弹，周五达到 65,500 美元的峰值，然后稳定在 64,300 美元左右。

Equity Market Woes Impact Crypto

股市困境影响加密货币

Fallout from the sell-off in Big Tech stocks spilled over into the equity markets, leading to a negative close for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, in contrast, managed a modest gain. This marked the S&P 500's sixth consecutive negative close, its longest losing streak of the year.

大型科技股抛售的影响蔓延到股市，导致标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克指数收跌。相比之下，道琼斯工业平均指数则小幅上涨。这标志着标准普尔 500 指数连续第六次收跌，也是今年最长的连续下跌。

Weakness across the markets largely stemmed from conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy. Comments from Fed officials hinted at a possible delay in interest rate cuts until 2024 due to persistent inflation.

整个市场的疲软很大程度上源于美联储关于利率政策的相互矛盾的信号。美联储官员的评论暗示，由于持续的通胀，降息可能会推迟到2024年。

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note and the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) both witnessed increases during the week.

本周，美国 10 年期国债收益率和 DXY（美元指数）均出现上涨。

Beyond the Halving Horizon

超越减半地平线

Analysts at Ryze Labs highlighted the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their impact on both traditional and crypto assets, underscoring that Bitcoin had yet to establish itself as a safe-haven asset among institutional investors.

Ryze Labs 的分析师强调了中东地缘政治紧张局势及其对传统和加密资产的影响，并强调比特币尚未成为机构投资者的避险资产。

"Funding rates across major cryptocurrencies turned sharply negative," the analysts noted, reflecting negative sentiment and widespread liquidations of long positions.

分析师指出，“主要加密货币的融资利率急剧转为负数”，反映出负面情绪和多头头寸普遍清算。

Hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell initially stirred the markets, but the reaction was muted, suggesting potential seller fatigue. Upcoming inflation data will be crucial in shaping future monetary policy decisions.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的鹰派言论最初搅动了市场，但市场反应平淡，表明潜在的卖家疲劳。即将发布的通胀数据对于制定未来的货币政策决策至关重要。

Historical Context and Market Expectations

历史背景和市场预期

Ryze Labs emphasized the historical significance of Bitcoin halvings, which have often been followed by significant price movements. The reduction in supply, coupled with steady or increasing demand, typically leads to higher prices.

Ryze Labs 强调了比特币减半的历史意义，减半之后往往会出现重大的价格波动。供应减少，加上需求稳定或增加，通常会导致价格上涨。

For instance, post-halving in 2012, Bitcoin's price soared from $13 to nearly $1,000 by the end of 2013. Similarly, the stock prices of Bitcoin mining companies have experienced notable changes around halving events.

例如，2012年减半后，比特币的价格从13美元飙升至2013年底的近1000美元。同样，比特币矿业公司的股价在减半事件前后也经历了显着变化。

Ryan Grace, head of tastycrypto, downplayed the halving date as a catalyst for price action, suggesting it could result in a "sell the news" event. Traders who bought ahead of the halving were already invested in BTC, he asserted.

tastycrypto 负责人 Ryan Grace 淡化了减半日期作为价格走势催化剂的作用，暗示这可能会导致“卖出新闻”事件。他断言，在减半之前买入的交易员已经投资了比特币。

Grace expects corrections to be short-lived, based on the reference point of recent ETF approvals that triggered a temporary 20% correction in BTC's price. However, he emphasized that past halving cycles provide limited guidance, as BTC's price performance has varied in the months following the event.

Grace 预计，根据最近 ETF 批准的参考点，触发 BTC 价格暂时调整 20% 的调整将是短暂的。然而，他强调，过去的减半周期提供的指导有限，因为比特币的价格表现在减半事件发生后的几个月内有所不同。

Grace projected a potential BTC price above $150,000 in the 6 to 18 months post-halving, assuming it mirrors previous four-year cycles. He emphasized that the presence of ETFs and rising global liquidity would drive the price post-halving.

Grace 预计 BTC 价格在减半后 6 至 18 个月内可能会超过 15 万美元，假设它反映了之前的四年周期。他强调，ETF 的存在和全球流动性的增加将推动减半后的价格上涨。

Altcoin Market Roundup

山寨币市场综述

The altcoin market closed the week mixed, with several tokens in the top 200 posting gains. Saga (SAGA) led the winners with a 24.5% surge, followed by Jito (JTO) with 17.3% and dogwifhat (WIF) with 17%. Ribbon Finance (RBN) underperformed, declining by 13.2%, accompanied by losses of 6.9% for Livepeer (LPT) and 4.9% for Helium (HNT).

山寨币市场本周收盘涨跌互现，前 200 名中的几种代币均出现上涨。 Saga (SAGA) 以 24.5% 的涨幅领跑，其次是 Jito (JTO)，涨幅为 17.3%，dogwifhat (WIF) 涨幅为 17%。 Ribbon Finance (RBN) 表现不佳，下跌 13.2%，Livepeer (LPT) 下跌 6.9%，Helium (HNT) 下跌 4.9%。

The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $2.34 trillion, while Bitcoin's dominance rate stood at 54.1%.

加密货币整体市值达到2.34万亿美元，而比特币的主导率为54.1%。

As the Bitcoin halving unfolds amidst a tumultuous global landscape, the crypto community eagerly anticipates the impact it will have on the market. The upcoming months will provide valuable insights into the long-term implications of this historic event and the future trajectory of the cryptocurrency industry.

随着比特币减半在动荡的全球格局中展开，加密货币社区热切地预期它将对市场产生的影响。未来几个月将为这一历史性事件的长期影响和加密货币行业的未来轨迹提供宝贵的见解。