比特幣、黃金價格可望上漲？摩根大通權衡川普驅動的潛力

以董事總經理 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 為首的摩根大通分析師在周三的一份報告中表示，唐納德·川普可能在即將到來的美國總統大選中獲勝，這可能會提高散戶對比特幣和黃金的興趣。

JPMorgan analysts are suggesting that a potential Donald Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. presidential election could lead to a surge in retail demand for bitcoin and gold, although institutional investors are still showing caution due to overbought futures.

摩根大通分析師表示，唐納德·川普在即將到來的美國總統大選中獲勝可能會導致比特幣和黃金的零售需求激增，儘管機構投資者仍因期貨超買而表現出謹慎態度。

In a report on Wednesday, JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, managing director and global head of thematic research, noted that retail investors are showing a strong interest in the "debasement trade" by purchasing bitcoin and gold ETFs.

在周三的一份報告中，以董事總經理兼全球主題研究主管 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 為首的摩根大通分析師指出，散戶投資者透過購買比特幣和黃金 ETF 對「貶值交易」表現出濃厚的興趣。

The analysts observed a significant level of retail activity, not only in bitcoin and gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) but also in "meme and AI tokens the market cap of which has outperformed."

分析師觀察到零售活動水準很高，不僅在比特幣和黃金交易所交易基金（ETF）方面，而且在「市值跑贏大盤的 meme 和 AI 代幣」方面也如此。

They also highlighted a substantial increase in bitcoin ETF inflows, with retail investors adding $1.3 billion in just two days, bringing October's total to $4.4 billion — the third-highest monthly inflow since January.

他們還強調了比特幣ETF 流入量大幅增加，散戶投資者在短短兩天內增加了13 億美元，使10 月份的流入總額達到44 億美元，這是自1 月份以來的第三高月度流入量。

However, despite this uptick in retail interest, institutional investors are reportedly remaining more cautious.

然而，儘管散戶興趣有所上升，但據報道機構投資者仍然更加謹慎。

“Bitcoin BTC +0.39% futures have become rather overbought creating some vulnerability going forward,” the analysts wrote in the note, regarding institutional demand in bitcoin futures, which showed a slowdown.

分析師在報告中寫道：「比特幣 BTC +0.39% 的期貨已經變得相當超買，造成了未來的一些脆弱性。」比特幣期貨的機構需求出現放緩。

Similarly, while retail investors are actively buying gold ETFs, institutional interest in gold futures has shown a noticeable pause.

同樣，雖然散戶正在積極購買黃金ETF，但機構對黃金期貨的興趣卻出現了明顯的停頓。

The JPMorgan analysts expressed optimism that macroeconomic uncertainties, inflation concerns, and the prospect of increased retail trading could support cryptocurrency growth through 2024.

摩根大通分析師樂觀地認為，宏觀經濟的不確定性、通膨擔憂以及零售交易增加的前景可能會在 2024 年之前支持加密貨幣的成長。

They concluded, “Overall, to the extent a Trump win inspires retail investors to not only buy risk assets but to also further embrace the ‘debasement trade’, there could be additional upside for bitcoin and gold prices in a Trump win scenario.”

他們的結論是，「總體而言，川普獲勝不僅會激勵散戶投資者購買風險資產，還會進一步接受『貶值交易'，那麼在川普獲勝的情況下，比特幣和黃金價格可能會有額外的上漲空間。

In related news, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has remained skeptical of bitcoin, despite the bank's broader interest in blockchain and digital assets.

在相關新聞中，摩根大通執行長傑米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）仍然對比特幣持懷疑態度，儘管該銀行對區塊鏈和數位資產有著更廣泛的興趣。

During a recent interview, Dimon stated that bitcoin “doesn't have value.” He has also linked bitcoin to illicit activities and expressed support for stricter regulation if he were in a government role.

在最近的一次採訪中，戴蒙表示比特幣「沒有價值」。他還將比特幣與非法活動聯繫起來，並表示如果他擔任政府職務，他將支持更嚴格的監管。

While JPMorgan is involved in blockchain initiatives and crypto products like ETFs, Dimon himself remains critical of bitcoin as an investment.

儘管摩根大通參與了區塊鏈計劃和 ETF 等加密產品，但戴蒙本人仍然對比特幣作為投資持批評態度。