比特币、黄金价格有望上涨？摩根大通权衡特朗普驱动的潜力

以董事总经理 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 为首的摩根大通分析师在周三的一份报告中表示，唐纳德·特朗普可能在即将到来的美国总统大选中获胜，这可能会提高散户对比特币和黄金的兴趣。

JPMorgan analysts are suggesting that a potential Donald Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. presidential election could lead to a surge in retail demand for bitcoin and gold, although institutional investors are still showing caution due to overbought futures.

摩根大通分析师表示，唐纳德·特朗普在即将到来的美国总统大选中获胜可能会导致比特币和黄金的零售需求激增，尽管机构投资者仍因期货超买而表现出谨慎态度。

In a report on Wednesday, JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, managing director and global head of thematic research, noted that retail investors are showing a strong interest in the "debasement trade" by purchasing bitcoin and gold ETFs.

在周三的一份报告中，以董事总经理兼全球主题研究主管 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 为首的摩根大通分析师指出，散户投资者通过购买比特币和黄金 ETF 对“贬值交易”表现出浓厚的兴趣。

The analysts observed a significant level of retail activity, not only in bitcoin and gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) but also in "meme and AI tokens the market cap of which has outperformed."

分析师观察到零售活动水平很高，不仅在比特币和黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）方面，而且在“市值跑赢大盘的 meme 和 AI 代币”方面也如此。

They also highlighted a substantial increase in bitcoin ETF inflows, with retail investors adding $1.3 billion in just two days, bringing October's total to $4.4 billion — the third-highest monthly inflow since January.

他们还强调了比特币 ETF 流入量大幅增加，散户投资者在短短两天内增加了 13 亿美元，使 10 月份的流入总额达到 44 亿美元，这是自 1 月份以来的第三高月度流入量。

However, despite this uptick in retail interest, institutional investors are reportedly remaining more cautious.

然而，尽管散户兴趣有所上升，但据报道机构投资者仍然更加谨慎。

“Bitcoin BTC +0.39% futures have become rather overbought creating some vulnerability going forward,” the analysts wrote in the note, regarding institutional demand in bitcoin futures, which showed a slowdown.

分析师在报告中写道：“比特币 BTC +0.39% 的期货已经变得相当超买，造成了未来的一些脆弱性。”比特币期货的机构需求出现放缓。

Similarly, while retail investors are actively buying gold ETFs, institutional interest in gold futures has shown a noticeable pause.

同样，虽然散户投资者正在积极购买黄金ETF，但机构对黄金期货的兴趣却出现了明显的停顿。

The JPMorgan analysts expressed optimism that macroeconomic uncertainties, inflation concerns, and the prospect of increased retail trading could support cryptocurrency growth through 2024.

摩根大通分析师乐观地认为，宏观经济的不确定性、通胀担忧以及零售交易增加的前景可能会在 2024 年之前支持加密货币的增长。

They concluded, “Overall, to the extent a Trump win inspires retail investors to not only buy risk assets but to also further embrace the ‘debasement trade’, there could be additional upside for bitcoin and gold prices in a Trump win scenario.”

他们的结论是，“总体而言，特朗普获胜不仅会激励散户投资者购买风险资产，还会进一步接受‘贬值交易’，那么在特朗普获胜的情况下，比特币和黄金价格可能会有额外的上涨空间。”

In related news, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has remained skeptical of bitcoin, despite the bank's broader interest in blockchain and digital assets.

在相关新闻中，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）仍然对比特币持怀疑态度，尽管该银行对区块链和数字资产有着更广泛的兴趣。

During a recent interview, Dimon stated that bitcoin “doesn't have value.” He has also linked bitcoin to illicit activities and expressed support for stricter regulation if he were in a government role.

在最近的一次采访中，戴蒙表示比特币“没有价值”。他还将比特币与非法活动联系起来，并表示如果他担任政府职务，他将支持更严格的监管。

While JPMorgan is involved in blockchain initiatives and crypto products like ETFs, Dimon himself remains critical of bitcoin as an investment.

尽管摩根大通参与了区块链计划和 ETF 等加密产品，但戴蒙本人仍然对比特币作为投资持批评态度。