比特幣、以太坊、XRP：拋售的受害者

1 月 7 日，由於分析師認為美國經濟數據超出預期，比特幣 [BTC] 回吐了新年漲幅。

Bitcoin [BTC] began the 7th of January giving back its New Year gains in a sell-off that crypto analysts linked to hotter-than-expected U.S. economic data.

比特幣 (BTC) 於 1 月 7 日開始回吐新年漲幅，加密貨幣分析師將其與美國經濟數據熱於預期聯繫在一起。

BTC dropped from $102K to hit lows of $94.5K, triggering a market-wide bloodbath. Ethereum [ETH] also saw a significant sell-off, dumping nearly 10% to lows of $3.3K. Among the top-10 losers, XRP saw a moderate sell-off of 6%.

BTC 從 10.2 萬美元跌至 9.45 萬美元低點，引發了全市場的大屠殺。以太幣 [ETH] 也出現了大幅拋售，下跌近 10%，跌至 3300 美元的低點。在跌幅前 10 名中，XRP 遭受了 6% 的溫和拋售。

Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP: Victims of sell-off

比特幣、以太坊、XRP：拋售的受害者

A sticky inflation in the U.S. services sector, as tracked by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), showed that the price paid for inputs climbed to highs last seen in early 2023. This sparked a sell-off in the markets.

根據供應管理協會 (ISM) 採購經理人指數 (PMI) 的追踪，美國服務業的黏性通膨表明，投入的價格攀升至 2023 年初的最高水平。

Reacting to the data, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen noted, “The real reason it is going up is due to ISM prices paid, which also just came in: actual: 64.4, estimated: 57.5, prior: 58.2. Has not been this high since Feb 2023, making the market wonder if perhaps the Fed cut too soon?”

針對這些數據，加密貨幣分析師本傑明·考恩(Benjamin Cowen) 指出，「價格上漲的真正原因是ISM 支付的價格，該價格也剛剛公佈：實際價格：64.4，估計價格：57.5，先前價格：58.2 。自 2023 年 2 月以來從未如此高，這讓市場懷疑聯準會降息是否為時過早？

Another risk factor was a likely resilient U.S. labor market. Recent data showed more job openings than expected, which could factor into the Fed’s rate cut path in 2025.

另一個風險因素是美國勞動市場可能具有彈性。近期數據顯示職缺多於預期，可能會影響聯準會 2025 年的降息路徑。

This bodes well for risk-on assets like BTC, as a slower rate cut path could lead to cheaper capital. However, trading firm QCP Capital seemed to have pinned the sell-off on the Job Openings data.

這對比特幣等風險資產來說是個好兆頭，因為較慢的降息路徑可能會導致資本更便宜。然而，貿易公司 QCP Capital 似乎將拋售歸咎於職缺數據。

“JOLTS job openings surged to 8.1M (vs. 7.74M forecast), sparking risk-off sentiment as long-term bond yields spiked. This triggered ~ $206M in liquidations within an hour.”

「JOLTS 職缺激增至 810 萬個（預期為 774 萬個），隨著長期債券殖利率飆升，引發了避險情緒。這在一小時內引發了約 2.06 億美元的清算。

They also added that Friday’s upcoming NFP (nonfarm payroll) data could further gauge the state of the U.S. labor markets and impact the BTC price trajectory.

他們還補充說，週五即將發布的非農就業數據可能會進一步衡量美國勞動市場的狀況並影響比特幣的價格軌跡。

In the meantime, the 25-Delta Risk Reversal (25RR), an indicator that gauges the volatility premium between calls (bullish bets) and puts (bearish bets, downside protection), was negative for the 10th of January and 17th option expiry on Deribit.

同時，衡量看漲期權（看漲押注）和看跌期權（看跌押注、下行保護）之間波動性溢價的25-Delta 風險逆轉(25RR) 指標在Deribit 的1 月10 日和17 日期權到期時為負值。

The 24-hour negative skew suggested increased hedging activity against downside moves as demand for puts exceeded calls. This underscored a cautious negative sentiment.

24 小時負偏差表明，由於看跌期權需求超過看漲期權，針對下行走勢的對沖活動有所增加。這凸顯了謹慎的負面情緒。

However, the 25RR for the option expiry on the 31st of January was almost neutral at 0.65, indicating a slight premium for calls and indicating a moderate bullish to neutral bias.

然而，1 月 31 日期權到期的 25RR 幾乎為中性，為 0.65，表明看漲期權略有溢價，並表明適度看漲至中性偏見。

Moreover, with the expected U.S. debt ceiling debate, the macro front could trigger wild price swings for BTC and the overall markets.

此外，隨著預期中的美國債務上限爭論，宏觀形勢可能會引發比特幣和整體市場的劇烈價格波動。