比特币、以太坊、XRP：抛售的受害者

1 月 7 日，由于分析师认为美国经济数据超出预期，比特币 [BTC] 回吐了新年涨幅。

Bitcoin [BTC] began the 7th of January giving back its New Year gains in a sell-off that crypto analysts linked to hotter-than-expected U.S. economic data.

比特币 (BTC) 于 1 月 7 日开始回吐新年涨幅，加密货币分析师将其与美国经济数据热于预期联系在一起。

BTC dropped from $102K to hit lows of $94.5K, triggering a market-wide bloodbath. Ethereum [ETH] also saw a significant sell-off, dumping nearly 10% to lows of $3.3K. Among the top-10 losers, XRP saw a moderate sell-off of 6%.

BTC 从 10.2 万美元跌至 9.45 万美元低点，引发了全市场的大屠杀。以太坊 [ETH] 也出现了大幅抛售，下跌近 10%，跌至 3300 美元的低点。在跌幅前 10 名中，XRP 遭受了 6% 的温和抛售。

Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP: Victims of sell-off

比特币、以太坊、XRP：抛售的受害者

A sticky inflation in the U.S. services sector, as tracked by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), showed that the price paid for inputs climbed to highs last seen in early 2023. This sparked a sell-off in the markets.

根据供应管理协会 (ISM) 采购经理人指数 (PMI) 的追踪，美国服务业的粘性通胀表明，投入的价格攀升至 2023 年初的最高水平。这引发了美国服务业的抛售。市场。

Reacting to the data, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen noted, “The real reason it is going up is due to ISM prices paid, which also just came in: actual: 64.4, estimated: 57.5, prior: 58.2. Has not been this high since Feb 2023, making the market wonder if perhaps the Fed cut too soon?”

针对这些数据，加密货币分析师本杰明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 指出，“价格上涨的真正原因是 ISM 支付的价格，该价格也刚刚公布：实际价格：64.4，估计价格：57.5，先前价格：58.2。自 2023 年 2 月以来从未如此高，这让市场怀疑美联储降息是否为时过早？”

Another risk factor was a likely resilient U.S. labor market. Recent data showed more job openings than expected, which could factor into the Fed’s rate cut path in 2025.

另一个风险因素是美国劳动力市场可能具有弹性。近期数据显示职位空缺多于预期，这可能会影响美联储 2025 年的降息路径。

This bodes well for risk-on assets like BTC, as a slower rate cut path could lead to cheaper capital. However, trading firm QCP Capital seemed to have pinned the sell-off on the Job Openings data.

这对于比特币等风险资产来说是个好兆头，因为较慢的降息路径可能会导致资本更便宜。然而，贸易公司 QCP Capital 似乎将抛售归咎于职位空缺数据。

“JOLTS job openings surged to 8.1M (vs. 7.74M forecast), sparking risk-off sentiment as long-term bond yields spiked. This triggered ~ $206M in liquidations within an hour.”

“JOLTS 职位空缺激增至 810 万个（预期为 774 万个），随着长期债券收益率飙升，引发了避险情绪。这在一小时内引发了约 2.06 亿美元的清算。”

They also added that Friday’s upcoming NFP (nonfarm payroll) data could further gauge the state of the U.S. labor markets and impact the BTC price trajectory.

他们还补充说，周五即将发布的非农就业数据可能会进一步衡量美国劳动力市场的状况并影响比特币的价格轨迹。

In the meantime, the 25-Delta Risk Reversal (25RR), an indicator that gauges the volatility premium between calls (bullish bets) and puts (bearish bets, downside protection), was negative for the 10th of January and 17th option expiry on Deribit.

与此同时，衡量看涨期权（看涨押注）和看跌期权（看跌押注、下行保护）之间波动性溢价的 25-Delta 风险逆转 (25RR) 指标在 Deribit 的 1 月 10 日和 17 日期权到期时为负值。

The 24-hour negative skew suggested increased hedging activity against downside moves as demand for puts exceeded calls. This underscored a cautious negative sentiment.

24 小时负偏差表明，由于看跌期权需求超过看涨期权，针对下行走势的对冲活动有所增加。这凸显了谨慎的负面情绪。

However, the 25RR for the option expiry on the 31st of January was almost neutral at 0.65, indicating a slight premium for calls and indicating a moderate bullish to neutral bias.

然而，1 月 31 日期权到期的 25RR 几乎为中性，为 0.65，表明看涨期权略有溢价，并表明适度看涨至中性偏见。

Moreover, with the expected U.S. debt ceiling debate, the macro front could trigger wild price swings for BTC and the overall markets.

此外，随着预期中的美国债务上限争论，宏观形势可能会引发比特币和整体市场的剧烈价格波动。