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高於預期的通膨報告將削弱聯準會降息的理由。
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) nursed losses on Friday as a hawkish rethink of the odds of outsized Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts kept the U.S. dollar bid ahead of a pivotal inflation report.
週五,由於對聯準會大幅降息可能性的鷹派重新思考,比特幣(BTC)和以太幣(ETH)繼續下跌,在關鍵通膨報告發布之前,美元繼續上漲。
The crypto market was listless during the European morning as a stronger dollar capped gains. Bitcoin was trading near $61,000, slightly higher than the overnight low of $60,400 but still down more than 1.5% over 24 hours. Ether saw similar price action, trading 1.9% lower at $2,395.
由於美元走強限制了漲幅,歐洲早盤加密貨幣市場表現低迷。比特幣交易價格接近 61,000 美元,略高於隔夜低點 60,400 美元,但 24 小時內仍下跌超過 1.5%。以太幣的價格走勢類似,下跌 1.9%,至 2,395 美元。
Other major alternative cryptocurrencies, BNB and SOL, traded 1% lower, with XRP down 0.6%, according to CoinDesk data.
根據 CoinDesk 數據,其他主要替代加密貨幣 BNB 和 SOL 的交易價格下跌 1%,其中 XRP 下跌 0.6%。
The dollar index (DXY), which gauges the greenback's exchange rate against major fiat currencies, rose to 102.97, the highest since Aug. 16, taking the cumulative gain since the Sept. 30 low of 100.18 to 2.7%, according to data source TradingView.
資料來源TradingView顯示,衡量美元兌主要法定貨幣匯率的美元指數(DXY)升至102.97,為8月16日以來最高,自9月30日低點100.18以來的累計漲幅達2.7% 。
The CME's FedWatch tool showed traders assigning an 85% probability to the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its Nov. 7 meeting instead of 65% a week ago.
CME 的 FedWatch 工具顯示,交易員認為聯準會在 11 月 7 日會議上降息 25 個基點的可能性為 85%,而不是一週前的 65%。
Back then, markets saw a 35% chance of the Fed delivering another 50 basis-point cut by year-end, having made the first in September. Friday's blowout nonfarm jobs report revived the "U.S. exceptionalism" story, forcing traders to reassess expectations for faster and bigger rate reductions.
當時,市場預計聯準會在 9 月首次降息 50 個基點後,年底前再次降息 50 個基點的可能性為 35%。週五井噴的非農就業報告重提了「美國例外論」的說法,迫使交易員重新評估對更快、更大幅度降息的預期。
The minutes from the September Fed meeting, released Wednesday, showed policymakers were divided on how aggressive the central bank should be. “A substantial majority of participants” favored cutting by half a percentage point, though some expressed misgivings about going that large, the minutes said.
週三公佈的 9 月聯準會會議紀要顯示,政策制定者對於央行應採取何種激進措施存在分歧。會議紀錄稱,「絕大多數參與者」贊成削減半個百分點,但也有一些人對削減這麼大的幅度表示擔憂。
The U.S. inflation report, due at 12:30 pm ET, could breed market volatility if it deviates from expectations. The data is expected to show the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year in September, following August's 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is forecast to print at 0.2% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year, according to FXStreet.
美國東部時間中午 12:30 發布的美國通膨報告如果偏離預期,可能會引發市場波動。預估數據顯示,9月居民消費物價指數(CPI)季增0.1%,年增2.3%,繼8月月增0.2%及年增2.5%之後。 FXStreet 預計,不包括食品和能源價格的核心 CPI 環比上漲 0.2%,比去年同期上漲 3.2%。
Hotter-than-expected CPI prints could strengthen calls to stop rate cuts, potentially adding to DXY's upward momentum and leading to risk aversion.
高於預期的消費者物價指數可能會強化停止降息的呼聲,從而可能增加美元指數的上漲動力並導致風險厭惡情緒。
ING, however, said early this week that the CPI won't lead to material changes in the market positioning, given the Fed’s focus has shifted to the labor market.
然而,荷蘭國際集團本周初表示,鑑於聯準會的重點已轉向勞動市場,消費者物價指數不會導致市場定位發生重大變化。
“Markets have fully priced in a 25 basis point cut by the Fed next month and the pivot in the narrative toward the labor market has left the market largely uninterested in CPI prints,” ING analysts wrote in a note.
ING 分析師在一份報告中寫道:“市場已經充分消化了美聯儲下個月降息 25 個基點的影響,而勞動力市場的敘事轉向使得市場對 CPI 數據基本不感興趣。”
“The market will likely ignore a CPI print that is within 1 standard deviation of expectations (i.e., between 1.7% and 2.9% y/y for headline CPI). Only prints outside this range will lead to meaningful market moves.”
「市場可能會忽略與預期相差 1 個標準差以內的 CPI 資料(即整體 CPI 年比成長 1.7% 至 2.9%)。只有超出這個範圍的印刷品才會導致有意義的市場波動。
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