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高于预期的通胀报告将削弱美联储降息的理由。
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) nursed losses on Friday as a hawkish rethink of the odds of outsized Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts kept the U.S. dollar bid ahead of a pivotal inflation report.
周五,由于对美联储大幅降息可能性的鹰派重新思考,比特币(BTC)和以太币(ETH)继续下跌,在关键通胀报告发布之前,美元继续上涨。
The crypto market was listless during the European morning as a stronger dollar capped gains. Bitcoin was trading near $61,000, slightly higher than the overnight low of $60,400 but still down more than 1.5% over 24 hours. Ether saw similar price action, trading 1.9% lower at $2,395.
由于美元走强限制了涨幅,欧洲早盘加密货币市场表现低迷。比特币交易价格接近 61,000 美元,略高于隔夜低点 60,400 美元,但 24 小时内仍下跌超过 1.5%。以太币的价格走势类似,下跌 1.9%,至 2,395 美元。
Other major alternative cryptocurrencies, BNB and SOL, traded 1% lower, with XRP down 0.6%, according to CoinDesk data.
根据 CoinDesk 数据,其他主要替代加密货币 BNB 和 SOL 的交易价格下跌 1%,其中 XRP 下跌 0.6%。
The dollar index (DXY), which gauges the greenback's exchange rate against major fiat currencies, rose to 102.97, the highest since Aug. 16, taking the cumulative gain since the Sept. 30 low of 100.18 to 2.7%, according to data source TradingView.
数据来源TradingView显示,衡量美元兑主要法定货币汇率的美元指数(DXY)升至102.97,为8月16日以来最高,自9月30日低点100.18以来的累计涨幅达2.7% 。
The CME's FedWatch tool showed traders assigning an 85% probability to the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its Nov. 7 meeting instead of 65% a week ago.
CME 的 FedWatch 工具显示,交易员认为美联储在 11 月 7 日会议上降息 25 个基点的可能性为 85%,而不是一周前的 65%。
Back then, markets saw a 35% chance of the Fed delivering another 50 basis-point cut by year-end, having made the first in September. Friday's blowout nonfarm jobs report revived the "U.S. exceptionalism" story, forcing traders to reassess expectations for faster and bigger rate reductions.
当时,市场预计美联储在 9 月份首次降息 50 个基点后,年底前再次降息 50 个基点的可能性为 35%。周五井喷的非农就业报告重提了“美国例外论”的说法,迫使交易员重新评估对更快、更大幅度降息的预期。
The minutes from the September Fed meeting, released Wednesday, showed policymakers were divided on how aggressive the central bank should be. “A substantial majority of participants” favored cutting by half a percentage point, though some expressed misgivings about going that large, the minutes said.
周三公布的 9 月美联储会议纪要显示,政策制定者对于央行应采取何种激进措施存在分歧。会议纪要称,“绝大多数参与者”赞成削减半个百分点,但也有一些人对削减这么大的幅度表示担忧。
The U.S. inflation report, due at 12:30 pm ET, could breed market volatility if it deviates from expectations. The data is expected to show the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year in September, following August's 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is forecast to print at 0.2% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year, according to FXStreet.
美国东部时间中午 12:30 发布的美国通胀报告如果偏离预期,可能会引发市场波动。预计数据显示,9月份居民消费价格指数(CPI)环比上涨0.1%,同比上涨2.3%,继8月份环比上涨0.2%和同比上涨2.5%之后。 FXStreet 预计,不包括食品和能源价格的核心 CPI 环比上涨 0.2%,同比上涨 3.2%。
Hotter-than-expected CPI prints could strengthen calls to stop rate cuts, potentially adding to DXY's upward momentum and leading to risk aversion.
高于预期的消费者物价指数可能会强化停止降息的呼声,从而可能增加美元指数的上涨动力并导致风险厌恶情绪。
ING, however, said early this week that the CPI won't lead to material changes in the market positioning, given the Fed’s focus has shifted to the labor market.
然而,荷兰国际集团本周初表示,鉴于美联储的重点已转向劳动力市场,消费者物价指数不会导致市场定位发生重大变化。
“Markets have fully priced in a 25 basis point cut by the Fed next month and the pivot in the narrative toward the labor market has left the market largely uninterested in CPI prints,” ING analysts wrote in a note.
ING 分析师在一份报告中写道:“市场已经充分消化了美联储下个月降息 25 个基点的影响,而劳动力市场的叙事转向使得市场对 CPI 数据基本不感兴趣。”
“The market will likely ignore a CPI print that is within 1 standard deviation of expectations (i.e., between 1.7% and 2.9% y/y for headline CPI). Only prints outside this range will lead to meaningful market moves.”
“市场可能会忽略与预期相差 1 个标准差以内的 CPI 数据(即总体 CPI 同比增长 1.7% 至 2.9%)。只有超出这个范围的印刷品才会导致有意义的市场波动。”
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