比特幣的主導地位可能會陷入停滯，為山寨幣突破阻力創造了成熟的環境

許多著名分析師指出，本次市場週期與以往不同，從投機性交易轉向更持續的交易。

Many prominent analysts have noted that this market cycle is different from previous ones, with a shift from speculative trading to a more sustained, fundamental-driven rally. This optimism is fueled by the belief that Bitcoin’s next phase could lead to a bull run reaching $100K.

許多著名分析師指出，本次市場週期與以往不同，從投機交易轉向更持續、基本面驅動的反彈。這種樂觀情緒是由比特幣下一階段可能導致牛市達到 10 萬美元的信念所推動的。

As a result, in just under a week, Bitcoin [BTC] surged to a new all-time high of $93K, with its market dominance hitting around 70%. This was driven by a confluence of factors including post-election liquidity, FOMC rate cuts, and, most significantly, the post-halving impact.

結果，在不到一周的時間裡，比特幣 [BTC] 飆升至 9.3 萬美元的歷史新高，其市場主導地位達到 70% 左右。這是由多種因素共同推動的，包括選舉後的流動性、聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 降息，以及最重要的減半後的影響。

However, despite the initial optimism, speculative pressure has emerged, preventing Bitcoin from reaching its target, as it has now consolidated below $90K for two consecutive days.

然而，儘管最初很樂觀，但投機壓力已經出現，阻礙了比特幣達到其目標，因為它目前已連續兩天鞏固在 9 萬美元以下。

Typically, such consolidation at this “high-risk” range could signal a shift of capital away from Bitcoin into other lower-risk assets. However, as per AMBCrypto, a hidden pattern suggests that this shift may actually be occurring.

通常情況下，這種「高風險」範圍內的整合可能標誌著資本從比特幣轉移到其他風險較低的資產。然而，根據 AMBCrypto，一個隱藏的模式表明這種轉變可能實際上正在發生。

History shows altcoins poised to break resistance

歷史顯示山寨幣有望突破阻力

Based on historical patterns observed in previous market cycles, a 230-day pattern has been observed following Bitcoin halvings.

根據先前市場週期中觀察到的歷史模式，比特幣減半後觀察到了 230 天的模式。

After the initial post-halving bull run, which often drives Bitcoin dominance to new highs, market participants look to altcoins for additional profit opportunities.

在最初的減半後牛市之後，通常會將比特幣的主導地位推向新高，市場參與者開始尋求山寨幣的額外盈利機會。

In 2020, the supply shock caused by the post-halving event materialized within the first 150 days, with Bitcoin reaching $40K for the first time.

2020 年，減半事件造成的供應衝擊在前 150 天內顯現，比特幣首次達到 4 萬美元。

However, after Bitcoin’s momentum slowed, altcoins began to out-perform, with many altcoins posting substantial gains about 60 days later.

然而，在比特幣勢頭放緩後，山寨幣開始跑贏大盤，許多山寨幣在大約 60 天後大幅上漲。

Similarly, the April halving this year, which reduced the miner reward to 3.125 Bitcoins, triggered an economic imbalance. This caused a sharp increase in demand, fueled by post-election liquidity, while the reduced supply led to tighter market conditions.

同樣，今年 4 月的減半將礦工獎勵減少至 3.125 比特幣，引發了經濟失衡。在選舉後流動性的推動下，這導致需求急劇增加，而供應減少導致市場狀況趨緊。

The resulting lower liquidity, combined with Bitcoin’s controlled supply, has created the ideal environment for pushing Bitcoin dominance near 70%, further fueling its rise to a new ATH.

由此導致的流動性降低，加上比特幣供應受控，為將比特幣的主導地位推向近 70% 創造了理想的環境，進一步推動其升至新的 ATH。

Thus, if the aforementioned trend repeats, many altcoins could be positioned to break past major resistance levels before the end of Q4. With Cardano gaining significant traction, this further reinforces AMBCrypto’s hypothesis.

因此，如果上述趨勢重複，許多山寨幣可能會在第四季末突破主要阻力位。隨著卡爾達諾獲得巨大關注，這進一步強化了 AMBCrypto 的假設。

Evidence to back this theory

支持這理論的證據

As noted earlier, Bitcoin’s consolidation below $90K reflects a growing ‘risk-averse’ sentiment in the market.

如前所述，比特幣在 9 萬美元以下的盤整反映了市場中日益增長的「規避風險」情緒。

Despite bulls countering bearish pressure, the failure to trigger a parabolic run – one that many anticipated due to the strong backing from the new administration and the social-media buzz surrounding a $100K target – raises concerns.

儘管多頭對抗看跌壓力，但未能引發拋物線上漲 — — 由於新政府的大力支持以及社交媒體圍繞 10 萬美元目標的熱議，許多人都預計拋物線上漲 — — 引發了擔憂。

In other words, the market’s hesitation to break key resistance levels suggests that Bitcoin’s dominance may be stalling, creating an ideal environment for investors to diversify into high-cap tokens.

換句話說，市場對突破關鍵阻力位的猶豫表明，比特幣的主導地位可能會陷入停滯，為投資者多元化投資高市值代幣創造了理想的環境。

These tokens, with strong community support and more attractive valuations, could offer an appealing alternative.

這些代幣擁有強大的社區支持和更具吸引力的估值，可以提供有吸引力的替代方案。

As a result, in the last 24 hours, as Bitcoin posted an approximately 4% decline, dropping to $86K – its lowest point of the day – major altcoins reaped the benefits, with XRP alone gaining over 15%.

結果，在過去 24 小時內，隨著比特幣下跌約 4%，跌至當日最低點 8.6 萬美元，主要山寨幣受益匪淺，僅 XRP 就上漲了 15% 以上。

Therefore, unless Bitcoin dominance rebounds, supported by both institutional and retail backing to solidify BTC’s long-term prospects, altcoins may continue to dominate the gainer charts.

因此，除非比特幣的主導地位反彈，並得到機構和散戶的支持以鞏固比特幣的長期前景，否則山寨幣可能會繼續主導漲幅圖。

However, on the flip side, altcoins could experience short-term gains if Bitcoin dominance climbs back to near 70%. Yet, a full-fledged altcoin season might remain limited, raising the critical question:

然而，另一方面，如果比特幣的主導地位回升至接近 70%，山寨幣可能會經歷短期上漲。然而，成熟的山寨幣季節可能仍然有限，這就提出了一個關鍵問題：

Will Bitcoin regain its weakening dominance?

比特幣會恢復其日漸衰弱的主導地位嗎？

On the monthly RSI, Bitcoin dominance has entered overbought territory, signaling a potential correction. This could indicate that the dominance of Bitcoin may soon experience a pullback, possibly paving the way for altcoins to gain traction.

從月度 RSI 來看，比特幣的主導地位已進入超買區域，預示著潛在的修正。這可能表明比特幣的主導地位可能很快就會經歷回調，可能為山寨幣獲得吸引力鋪平道路。

Meanwhile, institutional support for Bitcoin is weakening, as major players exit the cycle after locking in massive gains from this bull run. For Bitcoin dominance to regain control, these players are likely waiting for a “dip,” where prices are more feasible for re-entry.

同時，機構對比特幣的支持正在減弱，因為主要參與者在鎖定本次牛市的巨額收益後退出週期。為了讓比特幣的主導地位重新獲得控制權，這些參與者可能會等待“下跌”，此時價格更容易重新進入。

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024–2025

閱讀比特幣 [BTC] 2024-2025 年價格預測

Until then, it presents a prime opportunity for bulls to capitalize on an altcoin rally.

在那之前，這為多頭提供了利用山寨幣反彈的絕佳機會。

With historical patterns supporting this trend, altcoins look set to break key resistance levels in the coming days, potentially triggering an altcoin season by the end of Q1 next year.

由於歷史模式支持這一趨勢，山寨幣看起來將在未來幾天突破關鍵阻力位，可能會在明年第一季末引發山寨幣季節。