比特币的主导地位可能会陷入停滞，为山寨币突破阻力创造了成熟的环境

许多著名分析师指出，本次市场周期与以往不同，从投机性交易转向更持续的交易。

Many prominent analysts have noted that this market cycle is different from previous ones, with a shift from speculative trading to a more sustained, fundamental-driven rally. This optimism is fueled by the belief that Bitcoin’s next phase could lead to a bull run reaching $100K.

许多著名分析师指出，本次市场周期与以往不同，从投机交易转向更持续、基本面驱动的反弹。这种乐观情绪是由比特币下一阶段可能导致牛市达到 10 万美元的信念所推动的。

As a result, in just under a week, Bitcoin [BTC] surged to a new all-time high of $93K, with its market dominance hitting around 70%. This was driven by a confluence of factors including post-election liquidity, FOMC rate cuts, and, most significantly, the post-halving impact.

结果，在不到一周的时间里，比特币 [BTC] 飙升至 9.3 万美元的历史新高，其市场主导地位达到 70% 左右。这是由多种因素共同推动的，包括选举后的流动性、联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 降息，以及最重要的减半后的影响。

However, despite the initial optimism, speculative pressure has emerged, preventing Bitcoin from reaching its target, as it has now consolidated below $90K for two consecutive days.

然而，尽管最初很乐观，但投机压力已经出现，阻碍了比特币达到其目标，因为它目前已连续两天巩固在 9 万美元以下。

Typically, such consolidation at this “high-risk” range could signal a shift of capital away from Bitcoin into other lower-risk assets. However, as per AMBCrypto, a hidden pattern suggests that this shift may actually be occurring.

通常情况下，这种“高风险”范围内的整合可能标志着资本从比特币转移到其他风险较低的资产。然而，根据 AMBCrypto，一个隐藏的模式表明这种转变可能实际上正在发生。

History shows altcoins poised to break resistance

历史表明山寨币有望突破阻力

Based on historical patterns observed in previous market cycles, a 230-day pattern has been observed following Bitcoin halvings.

根据之前市场周期中观察到的历史模式，比特币减半后观察到了 230 天的模式。

After the initial post-halving bull run, which often drives Bitcoin dominance to new highs, market participants look to altcoins for additional profit opportunities.

在最初的减半后牛市之后，通常会将比特币的主导地位推向新高，市场参与者开始寻求山寨币的额外盈利机会。

In 2020, the supply shock caused by the post-halving event materialized within the first 150 days, with Bitcoin reaching $40K for the first time.

2020 年，减半事件造成的供应冲击在前 150 天内显现，比特币首次达到 4 万美元。

However, after Bitcoin’s momentum slowed, altcoins began to out-perform, with many altcoins posting substantial gains about 60 days later.

然而，在比特币势头放缓后，山寨币开始跑赢大盘，许多山寨币在大约 60 天后大幅上涨。

Similarly, the April halving this year, which reduced the miner reward to 3.125 Bitcoins, triggered an economic imbalance. This caused a sharp increase in demand, fueled by post-election liquidity, while the reduced supply led to tighter market conditions.

同样，今年 4 月份的减半将矿工奖励减少至 3.125 比特币，引发了经济失衡。在选举后流动性的推动下，这导致需求急剧增加，而供应减少导致市场状况趋紧。

The resulting lower liquidity, combined with Bitcoin’s controlled supply, has created the ideal environment for pushing Bitcoin dominance near 70%, further fueling its rise to a new ATH.

由此导致的流动性降低，加上比特币供应受控，为将比特币的主导地位推向近 70% 创造了理想的环境，进一步推动其升至新的 ATH。

Thus, if the aforementioned trend repeats, many altcoins could be positioned to break past major resistance levels before the end of Q4. With Cardano gaining significant traction, this further reinforces AMBCrypto’s hypothesis.

因此，如果上述趋势重复，许多山寨币可能会在第四季度末突破主要阻力位。随着卡尔达诺获得巨大关注，这进一步强化了 AMBCrypto 的假设。

Evidence to back this theory

支持这一理论的证据

As noted earlier, Bitcoin’s consolidation below $90K reflects a growing ‘risk-averse’ sentiment in the market.

如前所述，比特币在 9 万美元以下的盘整反映了市场中日益增长的“规避风险”情绪。

Despite bulls countering bearish pressure, the failure to trigger a parabolic run – one that many anticipated due to the strong backing from the new administration and the social-media buzz surrounding a $100K target – raises concerns.

尽管多头对抗看跌压力，但未能引发抛物线上涨 — — 由于新政府的大力支持以及社交媒体围绕 10 万美元目标的热议，许多人都预计抛物线上涨 — — 引发了担忧。

In other words, the market’s hesitation to break key resistance levels suggests that Bitcoin’s dominance may be stalling, creating an ideal environment for investors to diversify into high-cap tokens.

换句话说，市场对突破关键阻力位的犹豫表明，比特币的主导地位可能会陷入停滞，为投资者多元化投资高市值代币创造了理想的环境。

These tokens, with strong community support and more attractive valuations, could offer an appealing alternative.

这些代币拥有强大的社区支持和更具吸引力的估值，可以提供有吸引力的替代方案。

As a result, in the last 24 hours, as Bitcoin posted an approximately 4% decline, dropping to $86K – its lowest point of the day – major altcoins reaped the benefits, with XRP alone gaining over 15%.

结果，在过去 24 小时内，随着比特币下跌约 4%，跌至当日最低点 8.6 万美元，主要山寨币受益匪浅，仅 XRP 就上涨了 15% 以上。

Therefore, unless Bitcoin dominance rebounds, supported by both institutional and retail backing to solidify BTC’s long-term prospects, altcoins may continue to dominate the gainer charts.

因此，除非比特币的主导地位反弹，并得到机构和散户的支持以巩固比特币的长期前景，否则山寨币可能会继续主导涨幅图表。

However, on the flip side, altcoins could experience short-term gains if Bitcoin dominance climbs back to near 70%. Yet, a full-fledged altcoin season might remain limited, raising the critical question:

然而，另一方面，如果比特币的主导地位回升至接近 70%，山寨币可能会经历短期上涨。然而，成熟的山寨币季节可能仍然有限，这就提出了一个关键问题：

Will Bitcoin regain its weakening dominance?

比特币会恢复其日渐衰弱的主导地位吗？

On the monthly RSI, Bitcoin dominance has entered overbought territory, signaling a potential correction. This could indicate that the dominance of Bitcoin may soon experience a pullback, possibly paving the way for altcoins to gain traction.

从月度 RSI 来看，比特币的主导地位已进入超买区域，预示着潜在的修正。这可能表明比特币的主导地位可能很快就会经历回调，可能为山寨币获得吸引力铺平道路。

Meanwhile, institutional support for Bitcoin is weakening, as major players exit the cycle after locking in massive gains from this bull run. For Bitcoin dominance to regain control, these players are likely waiting for a “dip,” where prices are more feasible for re-entry.

与此同时，机构对比特币的支持正在减弱，因为主要参与者在锁定本次牛市的巨额收益后退出周期。为了让比特币的主导地位重新获得控制权，这些参与者可能会等待“下跌”，此时价格更容易重新进入。

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024–2025

阅读比特币 [BTC] 2024-2025 年价格预测

Until then, it presents a prime opportunity for bulls to capitalize on an altcoin rally.

在那之前，这为多头提供了利用山寨币反弹的绝佳机会。

With historical patterns supporting this trend, altcoins look set to break key resistance levels in the coming days, potentially triggering an altcoin season by the end of Q1 next year.

由于历史模式支持这一趋势，山寨币看起来将在未来几天突破关键阻力位，可能会在明年第一季度末引发山寨币季节。