隨著投資者應對可能更加鷹派的聯準會，比特幣和加密貨幣下跌

全球最大的加密貨幣比特幣（CRYPTO：BTC）的價格較下午晚些時候下跌約 4%，但在周末也大幅下跌。

Cryptocurrencies traded lower this weekend and into today as investors digested the prospect of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, which could lead to fewer rate cuts than hoped for in 2025.

由於投資者消化了聯準會更加鷹派的前景，加密貨幣本週末和今天的交易價格走低，這可能導致 2025 年降息幅度低於預期。

The price of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency, had fallen about 4% from late afternoon but also fell significantly over the weekend. As of 1:29 p.m. ET on Monday, Bitcoin traded around $93,260 after topping $102,000 last Thursday. The price of Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) traded 3.2% lower, while XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) had fallen 3.1%.

全球最大的加密貨幣比特幣（CRYPTO：BTC）的價格自下午晚些時候以來已下跌約 4%，但在周末也大幅下跌。截至美國東部時間週一下午 1:29，比特幣交易價格約為 93,260 美元，上週四突破 102,000 美元。狗狗幣 (CRYPTO: DOGE) 的價格下跌 3.2%，而 XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) 則下跌 3.1%。

The macro outlook is key right now.

宏觀前景現在是關鍵。

The Federal Reserve sent the market lower after concluding its final meeting of the year last week. The Fed also disclosed that it now expects only two rate cuts next year instead of the four it projected at its September meeting. While many investors and market pundits seemed to expect this heading into the Fed's meeting, the news surprised the broader market.

聯準會上週結束今年最後一次會議後，導致市場走低。聯準會也透露，目前預計明年只會降息兩次，而不是 9 月會議上預計的四次。儘管許多投資者和市場專家似乎預計聯準會會議將出現這種情況，但這一消息令整個市場感到驚訝。

Crypto stakeholders got more good news this morning after President-elect Donald Trump appointed Stephen Miran, an economist and former U.S. Treasury Department official, to chair the president's influential Council of Economic Advisers. Moran is pro-crypto.

今天早上，當選總統唐納德·川普任命經濟學家、前美國財政部官員史蒂芬·米蘭(Stephen Miran) 擔任總統頗具影響力的經濟顧問委員會主席後，加密貨幣利益相關者得到了更多好消息。莫蘭是加密貨幣支持者。

However, investors seemed more focused on the broader macro outlook. Despite durable goods orders in November coming in below expectations, Treasury yields moved higher, normally a bearish indicator for Bitcoin and crypto overall.

然而，投資者似乎更關注更廣泛的宏觀前景。儘管 11 月耐久財訂單低於預期，但美國公債殖利率走高，這通常是比特幣和加密貨幣整體的看跌指標。

Many people believe that Bitcoin can hedge inflation. But the cryptocurrency moved lower today as Treasury yields rose, and gold also fell. The dollar continued to strengthen, and Bitcoin, as an alternative currency, tends to have an inverse relationship with the dollar.

許多人認為比特幣可以對沖通貨膨脹。但隨著美國公債殖利率上升，加密貨幣今天走低，黃金也下跌。美元持續走強，而比特幣作為替代貨幣，往往與美元呈反比關係。

Bitcoin price data by YCharts

YCharts 提供的比特幣價格數據

Traders betting on 30-day Fed funds future prices are increasingly counting on the agency cutting rates fewer times than previously expected in 2025. More than 91% of traders think it is set to pause rate cuts at its January meeting, and 37.5% of traders see the Fed doing only one rate cut next year.

押注30 天聯邦基金未來價格的交易員越來越多地預計該機構2025 年降息次數將少於先前預期。員認為該機構將在2025 年降息。

Just a week ago, most traders expected two cuts from the Fed next year, although keep in mind that these probabilities can change quickly.

就在一周前，大多數交易員預計聯準會明年將兩次降息，但請記住，這些可能性可能很快就會改變。

I didn't see much token-specific news this morning, although Michael Saylor's company, MicroStrategy, continues to buy Bitcoin. Last week, the company purchased another 5,262 tokens for $561 million at an average price of $106,662. Saylor has publicly predicted that Bitcoin can soar to $13 million by 2045.

儘管 Michael Saylor 的公司 MicroStrategy 繼續購買比特幣，但今天早上我沒有看到太多特定於代幣的新聞。上週，該公司又以 5.61 億美元的價格購買了 5,262 個代幣，平均價格為 106,662 美元。 Saylor曾公開預測，到2045年，比特幣將飆升至1,300萬美元。

Expect some turbulence heading into the new year.

預計進入新的一年會出現一些動盪。

Bitcoin has risen significantly this year, so it's more susceptible to pullbacks. I expect the token to remain volatile as the market looks for hints about inflation and the trajectory of interest rates.

比特幣今年大幅上漲，因此更容易出現回檔。我預計隨著市場尋找有關通膨和利率軌蹟的暗示，該代幣將保持波動。

Most traders now think inflation will be sticky and stay above the Fed's preferred 2% target. Investors and the Fed are also bracing for the potential inflationary impact of Trump's proposed tax cuts and tariffs.

大多數交易員現在認為通膨將是黏性的，並保持在聯準會首選的 2% 目標之上。投資者和聯準會也正在為川普提議的減稅和關稅的潛在通膨影響做好準備。

Still, all of this could change direction on a dime with a weak reading of the December jobs report or the Consumer Price Index in early January, which is why I expect volatility to begin next year. XRP and Dogecoin are more volatile than Bitcoin, so the two tokens should experience higher gains and worse losses than Bitcoin.

儘管如此，隨著 12 月就業報告或 1 月初消費者物價指數的疲軟讀數，所有這一切都可能會立即改變方向，這就是我預計明年將開始波動的原因。 XRP 和狗狗幣的波動性比比特幣更大，因此這兩種代幣應該比比特幣經歷更高的收益和更糟糕的損失。

I like Bitcoin and think XRP warrants a smaller, speculative position. I do not currently have any interest in Dogecoin.

我喜歡比特幣，並認為 XRP 值得持有較小的投機部位。我目前對狗狗幣沒有任何興趣。