随着投资者应对可能更加鹰派的美联储，比特币和加密货币下跌

全球最大的加密货币比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）的价格较下午晚些时候下跌约 4%，但在周末也大幅下跌。

Cryptocurrencies traded lower this weekend and into today as investors digested the prospect of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, which could lead to fewer rate cuts than hoped for in 2025.

由于投资者消化了美联储更加鹰派的前景，加密货币本周末和今天的交易价格走低，这可能导致 2025 年降息幅度低于预期。

The price of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency, had fallen about 4% from late afternoon but also fell significantly over the weekend. As of 1:29 p.m. ET on Monday, Bitcoin traded around $93,260 after topping $102,000 last Thursday. The price of Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) traded 3.2% lower, while XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) had fallen 3.1%.

全球最大的加密货币比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）的价格自下午晚些时候以来已下跌约 4%，但在周末也大幅下跌。截至美国东部时间周一下午 1:29，比特币交易价格约为 93,260 美元，上周四突破 102,000 美元。狗狗币 (CRYPTO: DOGE) 的价格下跌 3.2%，而 XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) 则下跌 3.1%。

The macro outlook is key right now.

宏观前景现在是关键。

The Federal Reserve sent the market lower after concluding its final meeting of the year last week. The Fed also disclosed that it now expects only two rate cuts next year instead of the four it projected at its September meeting. While many investors and market pundits seemed to expect this heading into the Fed's meeting, the news surprised the broader market.

美联储上周结束今年最后一次会议后，导致市场走低。美联储还透露，目前预计明年只会降息两次，而不是九月份会议上预计的四次。尽管许多投资者和市场专家似乎预计美联储会议将出现这一情况，但这一消息令整个市场感到惊讶。

Crypto stakeholders got more good news this morning after President-elect Donald Trump appointed Stephen Miran, an economist and former U.S. Treasury Department official, to chair the president's influential Council of Economic Advisers. Moran is pro-crypto.

今天早上，当选总统唐纳德·特朗普任命经济学家、前美国财政部官员史蒂芬·米兰 (Stephen Miran) 担任总统颇具影响力的经济顾问委员会主席后，加密货币利益相关者得到了更多好消息。莫兰是加密货币支持者。

However, investors seemed more focused on the broader macro outlook. Despite durable goods orders in November coming in below expectations, Treasury yields moved higher, normally a bearish indicator for Bitcoin and crypto overall.

然而，投资者似乎更关注更广泛的宏观前景。尽管 11 月份耐用品订单低于预期，但美国国债收益率走高，这通常是比特币和加密货币整体的看跌指标。

Many people believe that Bitcoin can hedge inflation. But the cryptocurrency moved lower today as Treasury yields rose, and gold also fell. The dollar continued to strengthen, and Bitcoin, as an alternative currency, tends to have an inverse relationship with the dollar.

许多人认为比特币可以对冲通胀。但随着美国国债收益率上升，加密货币今天走低，黄金也下跌。美元持续走强，而比特币作为替代货币，往往与美元呈反比关系。

Bitcoin price data by YCharts

YCharts 提供的比特币价格数据

Traders betting on 30-day Fed funds future prices are increasingly counting on the agency cutting rates fewer times than previously expected in 2025. More than 91% of traders think it is set to pause rate cuts at its January meeting, and 37.5% of traders see the Fed doing only one rate cut next year.

押注 30 天联邦基金未来价格的交易员越来越多地预计该机构 2025 年降息次数将少于此前预期。超过 91% 的交易员认为美联储将在 1 月份会议上暂停降息，37.5% 的交易员认为该机构将在 2025 年降息。预计美联储明年只会降息一次。

Just a week ago, most traders expected two cuts from the Fed next year, although keep in mind that these probabilities can change quickly.

就在一周前，大多数交易员预计美联储明年将两次降息，但请记住，这些可能性可能会很快发生变化。

I didn't see much token-specific news this morning, although Michael Saylor's company, MicroStrategy, continues to buy Bitcoin. Last week, the company purchased another 5,262 tokens for $561 million at an average price of $106,662. Saylor has publicly predicted that Bitcoin can soar to $13 million by 2045.

尽管 Michael Saylor 的公司 MicroStrategy 继续购买比特币，但今天早上我没有看到太多特定于代币的新闻。上周，该公司又以 5.61 亿美元的价格购买了 5,262 个代币，平均价格为 106,662 美元。 Saylor曾公开预测，到2045年，比特币将飙升至1300万美元。

Expect some turbulence heading into the new year.

预计进入新的一年会出现一些动荡。

Bitcoin has risen significantly this year, so it's more susceptible to pullbacks. I expect the token to remain volatile as the market looks for hints about inflation and the trajectory of interest rates.

比特币今年大幅上涨，因此更容易出现回调。我预计随着市场寻找有关通胀和利率轨迹的暗示，该代币将保持波动。

Most traders now think inflation will be sticky and stay above the Fed's preferred 2% target. Investors and the Fed are also bracing for the potential inflationary impact of Trump's proposed tax cuts and tariffs.

大多数交易员现在认为通胀将是粘性的，并保持在美联储首选的 2% 目标之上。投资者和美联储也正在为特朗普提议的减税和关税的潜在通胀影响做好准备。

Still, all of this could change direction on a dime with a weak reading of the December jobs report or the Consumer Price Index in early January, which is why I expect volatility to begin next year. XRP and Dogecoin are more volatile than Bitcoin, so the two tokens should experience higher gains and worse losses than Bitcoin.

尽管如此，随着 12 月就业报告或 1 月初消费者价格指数的疲弱读数，所有这一切都可能会立即改变方向，这就是我预计明年将开始波动的原因。 XRP 和狗狗币的波动性比比特币更大，因此这两种代币应该比比特币经历更高的收益和更糟糕的损失。

I like Bitcoin and think XRP warrants a smaller, speculative position. I do not currently have any interest in Dogecoin.

我喜欢比特币，并认为 XRP 值得持有较小的投机头寸。我目前对狗狗币没有任何兴趣。