比特幣修正：分析師對市場動態和未來前景進行評估

在比特幣價格最近下跌的情況下，加密貨幣分析師 Marco Johanning 保持樂觀的前景，強調當前的價格走勢是持續牛市中的修正。他列舉了持續看漲趨勢的幾個指標，包括突破200日移動均線以及在過去18個月內建立更高的高點和更高的低點。約翰寧提供了詳細的技術分析場景，提出了關鍵水平上的潛在反轉點，並預測牛市的延續，並用山寨幣在比特幣波動期間表現出的彈性支持了他的觀點。

Bitcoin's Recent Correction: A Deeper Dive into Market Dynamics and Future Expectations

比特幣最近的調整：更深入研究市場動態和未來預期

The recent dip in Bitcoin's value below the $60,000 mark has generated considerable speculation within the cryptocurrency community, prompting questions among investors and market analysts regarding the future trajectory of its price. To shed light on this matter, Marco Johanning, a renowned crypto analyst and founder of The Summit Club, took to social media to offer his insights into the current market conditions and potential scenarios.

最近比特幣價格跌破 6 萬美元大關，在加密貨幣社群內引發了大量猜測，引發了投資者和市場分析師對其價格未來走勢的疑問。為了闡明這個問題，著名的加密貨幣分析師、The Summit Club 的創始人 Marco Johanning 在社群媒體上發表了他對當前市場狀況和潛在場景的見解。

Johanning's analysis emphasizes that the recent price action does not signal a market downturn, but rather a correction within an ongoing bull market. He asserts, "Bitcoin lost the range. What now? First and foremost, a reminder: we are in a bull market, and this is a correction. This is not a rally in a bear market. Or in other words, the high time frame trend is up no matter what."

約翰寧的分析強調，最近的價格走勢並不意味著市場低迷，而是正在進行的牛市中的調整。他斷言，「比特幣失去了區間。現在怎麼辦？首先，也是最重要的是，提醒一下：我們正處於牛市，這是一次修正。這不是熊市中的反彈。或者換句話說，現在是黃金時期無論如何，框架趨勢都會上升。

Johanning's assertion is supported by several indicators indicative of a persistent bullish trend. Notably, Bitcoin reached its bear market bottom in November 2022 and subsequently ascended above the 200-day moving average, a pivotal indicator of long-term market trends. After a brief drop below this level, it surged back above it, along with a breakout above a significant high time frame resistance in October 2023.

約翰寧的主張得到了多個顯示持續看漲趨勢的指標的支持。值得注意的是，比特幣於 2022 年 11 月觸及熊市底部，隨後升至 200 日移動均線上方，這是長期市場趨勢的關鍵指標。在短暫跌破該水平後，它又飆升至該水平上方，並突破 2023 年 10 月的重要高時間框架阻力位。

Furthermore, Bitcoin established a new all-time high in March 2024. Over the past 18 months, it has consistently registered higher highs and higher lows, which are typical characteristics of a bull market.

此外，比特幣在2024年3月創下了歷史新高。

"This can’t be a bear market," Johanning explains. "These elements underscore a fundamental bias crucial for assuming that the current drop is part of a broader bull market trend. Therefore, Bitcoin will eventually find a local bottom and ascend higher."

「這不可能是熊市，」約翰寧解釋道。 “這些因素強調了基本面偏見，對於假設當前的下跌是更廣泛的牛市趨勢的一部分至關重要。因此，比特幣最終將找到局部底部並走高。”

Bitcoin Price Analysis: What to Anticipate Next

比特幣價格分析：接下來的預期

Johanning provides a detailed breakdown of plausible future scenarios based on technical analysis. His first scenario is predicated on the monthly chart, where the most critical level stands at $48,000-$49,000. This level is significant because it represented a major obstacle overcome in February 2024. Currently, it could serve as a potential point for a bullish retest.

約翰寧根據技術分析對未來可能出現的情況進行了詳細分析。他的第一個情景是根據月度圖表預測的，其中最關鍵的水平為 48,000 美元至 49,000 美元。該水平很重要，因為它代表了 2024 年 2 月克服的主要障礙。

Additionally, there is a substantial market imbalance down to the $48,000-$49,000 range, coinciding with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the most recent monthly swing low. This setup suggests a solid probability for price stabilization and reversal at this level, according to Johanning.

此外，市場存在嚴重失衡，跌至 48,000 美元至 49,000 美元區間，與最近月度波動低點的 0.5 斐波那契回檔位一致。約翰寧表示，這種設定表明價格在這一水平上穩定和逆轉的可能性很高。

Scenario 2 is based on the weekly chart, where the key level is at $52,000. This level acts as a major high time frame support/resistance, marked by a weekly imbalance that stretches up to $52,000. It also aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from the bottom to the top of the most recent significant rally and the 0.618 level from the previous swing low to the top.

情境 2 基於週線圖，其中關鍵水準為 52,000 美元。該水平是主要的高時間框架支撐/阻力，其標誌是每週失衡高達 52,000 美元。它還與最近一次重大反彈中從底部到頂部的 0.382 斐波那契回撤位以及從先前的波動低點到頂部的 0.618 水平保持一致。

Scenario 3 is derived from lower timeframes, where the most critical level rests at $57,000. This level is crucial as it represents the 0.5 Fibonacci level from the latest swing low and served as a pivotal area during the February rally. It may present an opportunity for a potential deviation or price trap.

情境 3 源自於較低的時間範圍，其中最關鍵的水準為 57,000 美元。該水平至關重要，因為它代表了距離最新波動低點 0.5 的斐波那契水平，並且是 2 月反彈期間的關鍵區域。它可能提供潛在偏差或價格陷阱的機會。

"The recent bearish engulfing pattern breaking the monthly levels, followed by a bearish retest, signals significant market shifts," Johanning notes. "If Bitcoin swiftly reclaims these key levels, notably $57,000, we may witness a deviation scenario unfold. Conversely, the $52,000 or $48,000-$49,000 levels will likely be tested, each marking a higher low within the ongoing uptrend."

約翰寧指出：“最近的看跌吞沒模式突破了月度水平，隨後又進行了看跌重新測試，這標誌著市場發生了重大轉變。” 「如果比特幣迅速收復這些關鍵水平，特別是57,000 美元，我們可能會看到偏離情況的出現。相反，52,000 美元或48,000 美元至49,000 美元的水平可能會受到測試，每個水平都標誌著持續上升趨勢中的更高低點。

Impact on Altcoins and Market Strategy

對山寨幣和市場策略的影響

Altcoins have exhibited remarkable resilience in the face of Bitcoin's volatility, which Johanning finds particularly encouraging. "Typically, a pronounced drop in Bitcoin accompanied by a loss of a higher time frame range would result in severe declines in altcoins. However, their strength yesterday is a positive indicator that the worst may have passed for altcoins," he remarks.

面對比特幣的波動，山寨幣表現出了非凡的彈性，約翰寧認為這一點尤其令人鼓舞。 「通常情況下，比特幣的大幅下跌伴隨著較高時間範圍的損失，將導致山寨幣的嚴重下跌。然而，昨天它們的強勢是一個積極的指標，表明山寨幣最糟糕的時期可能已經過去， 」他評論道。

Johanning concludes his analysis with an optimistic outlook for both Bitcoin and altcoins, expressing confidence in the continuation of the bull market. He is actively accumulating more at current prices, anticipating significant returns: "Regardless of which scenario unfolds, I am committed to this trend until proven otherwise. I’m investing heavily, and if we indeed remain in a bull market, the profit potential is substantial."

約翰寧以對比特幣和山寨幣的樂觀前景結束了他的分析，表達了對牛市持續的信心。他正在以當前價格積極積累更多資金，預計可觀的回報：「無論出現哪種情況，我都致力於這一趨勢，直到事實證明並非如此。我正在大力投資，如果我們確實保持在牛市中，則利潤潛力是重大的。

At the time of writing, BTC traded at $58,328.

截至撰寫本文時，BTC 交易價格為 58,328 美元。

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