比特币修正：分析师对市场动态和未来前景进行评估

在比特币价格最近下跌的情况下，加密货币分析师 Marco Johanning 保持乐观的前景，强调当前的价格走势是持续牛市中的修正。他列举了持续看涨趋势的几个指标，包括突破200日移动均线以及在过去18个月内建立更高的高点和更高的低点。约翰宁提供了详细的技术分析场景，提出了关键水平上的潜在反转点，并预测牛市的延续，并用山寨币在比特币波动期间表现出的弹性支持了他的观点。

Bitcoin's Recent Correction: A Deeper Dive into Market Dynamics and Future Expectations

比特币最近的调整：更深入地研究市场动态和未来预期

The recent dip in Bitcoin's value below the $60,000 mark has generated considerable speculation within the cryptocurrency community, prompting questions among investors and market analysts regarding the future trajectory of its price. To shed light on this matter, Marco Johanning, a renowned crypto analyst and founder of The Summit Club, took to social media to offer his insights into the current market conditions and potential scenarios.

最近比特币价格跌破 60,000 美元大关，在加密货币社区内引发了大量猜测，引发了投资者和市场分析师对其价格未来走势的疑问。为了阐明这个问题，著名的加密货币分析师、The Summit Club 的创始人 Marco Johanning 在社交媒体上发表了他对当前市场状况和潜在场景的见解。

Johanning's analysis emphasizes that the recent price action does not signal a market downturn, but rather a correction within an ongoing bull market. He asserts, "Bitcoin lost the range. What now? First and foremost, a reminder: we are in a bull market, and this is a correction. This is not a rally in a bear market. Or in other words, the high time frame trend is up no matter what."

约翰宁的分析强调，最近的价格走势并不意味着市场低迷，而是正在进行的牛市中的调整。他断言，“比特币失去了区间。现在怎么办？首先，也是最重要的是，提醒一下：我们正处于牛市，这是一次修正。这不是熊市中的反弹。或者换句话说，现在是黄金时期无论如何，框架趋势都会上升。”

Johanning's assertion is supported by several indicators indicative of a persistent bullish trend. Notably, Bitcoin reached its bear market bottom in November 2022 and subsequently ascended above the 200-day moving average, a pivotal indicator of long-term market trends. After a brief drop below this level, it surged back above it, along with a breakout above a significant high time frame resistance in October 2023.

约翰宁的主张得到了多项表明持续看涨趋势的指标的支持。值得注意的是，比特币于 2022 年 11 月触及熊市底部，随后升至 200 日移动均线上方，这是长期市场趋势的关键指标。在短暂跌破该水平后，它又飙升至该水平上方，并突破 2023 年 10 月的重要高时间框架阻力位。

Furthermore, Bitcoin established a new all-time high in March 2024. Over the past 18 months, it has consistently registered higher highs and higher lows, which are typical characteristics of a bull market.

此外，比特币在2024年3月创下了历史新高。在过去的18个月里，它不断创下更高的高点和更高的低点，这是牛市的典型特征。

"This can’t be a bear market," Johanning explains. "These elements underscore a fundamental bias crucial for assuming that the current drop is part of a broader bull market trend. Therefore, Bitcoin will eventually find a local bottom and ascend higher."

“这不可能是熊市，”约翰宁解释道。 “这些因素强调了基本面偏见，对于假设当前的下跌是更广泛的牛市趋势的一部分至关重要。因此，比特币最终将找到局部底部并走高。”

Bitcoin Price Analysis: What to Anticipate Next

比特币价格分析：接下来的预期

Johanning provides a detailed breakdown of plausible future scenarios based on technical analysis. His first scenario is predicated on the monthly chart, where the most critical level stands at $48,000-$49,000. This level is significant because it represented a major obstacle overcome in February 2024. Currently, it could serve as a potential point for a bullish retest.

约翰宁根据技术分析对未来可能出现的情况进行了详细分析。他的第一个情景是根据月度图表预测的，其中最关键的水平为 48,000 美元至 49,000 美元。该水平很重要，因为它代表了 2024 年 2 月克服的主要障碍。目前，它可以作为看涨重新测试的潜在点。

Additionally, there is a substantial market imbalance down to the $48,000-$49,000 range, coinciding with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the most recent monthly swing low. This setup suggests a solid probability for price stabilization and reversal at this level, according to Johanning.

此外，市场存在严重失衡，跌至 48,000 美元至 49,000 美元区间，与最近月度波动低点的 0.5 斐波那契回撤位一致。约翰宁表示，这种设置表明价格在这一水平上稳定和逆转的可能性很大。

Scenario 2 is based on the weekly chart, where the key level is at $52,000. This level acts as a major high time frame support/resistance, marked by a weekly imbalance that stretches up to $52,000. It also aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from the bottom to the top of the most recent significant rally and the 0.618 level from the previous swing low to the top.

情景 2 基于周线图，其中关键水平为 52,000 美元。该水平是主要的高时间框架支撑/阻力，其标志是每周失衡高达 52,000 美元。它还与最近一次重大反弹中从底部到顶部的 0.382 斐波那契回撤位以及从之前的波动低点到顶部的 0.618 水平保持一致。

Scenario 3 is derived from lower timeframes, where the most critical level rests at $57,000. This level is crucial as it represents the 0.5 Fibonacci level from the latest swing low and served as a pivotal area during the February rally. It may present an opportunity for a potential deviation or price trap.

情景 3 源自较低的时间范围，其中最关键的水平为 57,000 美元。该水平至关重要，因为它代表了距离最新波动低点 0.5 的斐波那契水平，并且是 2 月份反弹期间的关键区域。它可能提供潜在偏差或价格陷阱的机会。

"The recent bearish engulfing pattern breaking the monthly levels, followed by a bearish retest, signals significant market shifts," Johanning notes. "If Bitcoin swiftly reclaims these key levels, notably $57,000, we may witness a deviation scenario unfold. Conversely, the $52,000 or $48,000-$49,000 levels will likely be tested, each marking a higher low within the ongoing uptrend."

约翰宁指出：“最近的看跌吞没模式突破了月度水平，随后又进行了看跌重新测试，这标志着市场发生了重大转变。” “如果比特币迅速收复这些关键水平，特别是 57,000 美元，我们可能会看到偏离情况的出现。相反，52,000 美元或 48,000 美元至 49,000 美元的水平可能会受到测试，每个水平都标志着持续上升趋势中的更高低点。”

Impact on Altcoins and Market Strategy

对山寨币和市场策略的影响

Altcoins have exhibited remarkable resilience in the face of Bitcoin's volatility, which Johanning finds particularly encouraging. "Typically, a pronounced drop in Bitcoin accompanied by a loss of a higher time frame range would result in severe declines in altcoins. However, their strength yesterday is a positive indicator that the worst may have passed for altcoins," he remarks.

面对比特币的波动，山寨币表现出了非凡的弹性，约翰宁认为这一点尤其令人鼓舞。 “通常情况下，比特币的大幅下跌伴随着较高时间范围的损失，将导致山寨币的严重下跌。然而，昨天它们的强势是一个积极的指标，表明山寨币最糟糕的时期可能已经过去，”他评论道。

Johanning concludes his analysis with an optimistic outlook for both Bitcoin and altcoins, expressing confidence in the continuation of the bull market. He is actively accumulating more at current prices, anticipating significant returns: "Regardless of which scenario unfolds, I am committed to this trend until proven otherwise. I’m investing heavily, and if we indeed remain in a bull market, the profit potential is substantial."

约翰宁以对比特币和山寨币的乐观前景结束了他的分析，表达了对牛市持续的信心。他正在以当前价格积极积累更多资金，预计可观的回报：“无论出现哪种情况，我都致力于这一趋势，直到事实证明并非如此。我正在大力投资，如果我们确实保持在牛市中，则利润潜力是重大的。”

At the time of writing, BTC traded at $58,328.

截至撰写本文时，BTC 交易价格为 58,328 美元。

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