比特幣（BTC）交易數量暴跌至2023低

鏈上數據顯示，比特幣交易數量已跌至2023年10月以來的最低水平。這是BTC的價格可能意味著的。

In the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, on-chain data serves as an invaluable guide, offering insights into the dynamics of investor behavior and market trends. Recently, CryptoQuant author IT Tech, known for their insightful analysis, took to X to highlight a significant drop in Bitcoin (BTC) transfer activity, an observation that has sparked discussion among crypto enthusiasts.

在不斷發展的加密貨幣環境中，鍊鍊數據是一份無價的指南，為投資者行為和市場趨勢的動態提供了見解。最近，以洞察力的分析而聞名的Cryptoquant作家IT Tech（IT Tech）突出了比特幣（BTC）轉移活動的大幅度下降，這一觀察結果激發了加密愛好者之間的討論。

Chart of the Number of Transactions indicator shared by CryptoQuant author IT Tech on X

CryptoQuant作者IT Tech在X上共享的交易指標數量圖表

As pointed out by Tech, the relevant indicator here is the “Number of Transactions” from market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, which measures, as its name suggests, the daily number of moves that addresses across the network are making.

正如Tech所指出的那樣，這裡的相關指標是市場情報平台Intotheblock的“交易數”，顧名思義，它衡量了整個網絡中解決的每日移動數量。

Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst, that shows the trend in its value over the last few years:

現在，這是分析師共享的圖表，它顯示了過去幾年其價值的趨勢：

As displayed in the above graph, the Number of Transactions has seen a large drop recently, suggesting that investors are making much fewer moves on the blockchain now.

如上圖所示，交易的數量最近看到了很大的下降，這表明投資者現在在區塊鏈上的舉動較少。

Generally, a drop in network transaction activity is a sign that the traders are losing interest in the cryptocurrency. Any notable move in the price is only sustainable when a large number of investors are providing the fuel to support it, so it can be hard for BTC to mount up a rally when the Number of Transactions declines to a low level.

通常，網絡交易活動的下降表明交易者正在失去對加密貨幣的興趣。只有在大量投資者提供支持燃料的燃料時，任何值得注意的舉動都是可持續的，因此，當交易數量下降到低水平時，BTC可能很難進行集會。

From the chart, it’s visible that the investors were making a high number of moves in the lead-up to the Bitcoin price rally beyond $100,000. But interestingly, the indicator plunged before the price peak arrived, implying that signs of the rally not having too much time left may have already been there from an on-chain perspective.

從圖表來看，可以看到投資者在比特幣價格集會上進行大量行動，超過100,000美元。但是有趣的是，該指標在價格峰值到達之前就跌落了，這意味著從鏈的角度來看，集會沒有太多時間的跡象可能已經在那裡。

Recently, the Number of Transactions briefly crashed to a level that it hasn't touched since October 2023. Back then, the low transfer count didn’t last for too long and was in fact followed up by a burst of activity that accompanied a price rally.

最近，交易的數量短暫撞到了自2023年10月以來一直沒有觸及的水平。那時，低轉移計數並沒有持續太久，實際上隨後發生了一系列活動，伴隨著價格集會。

It’s possible that something similar could happen this time as well, but one key difference between then and now is that the recent downturn in the indicator has been more prolonged. Naturally, if things are indeed going to be different this time, then a lasting lack of interest from the investors could be a bad sign for the bulls.

這次可能也可能發生類似的事情，但是現在和現在之間的一個關鍵區別是，該指標最近的低迷延長了。自然，如果這次情況確實會有所不同，那麼投資者持久的興趣可能對公牛隊來說是一個不好的信號。

That said, one indicator that may provide for an argument against a shift away from a bull market is the Cycle Extreme shared by Axel Adler Jr, another CryptoQuant author.

也就是說，一個可能規定反對從牛市轉變的指標是另一位加密誇張作者Axel Adler JR共享的周期極端。

“Cycle Extreme identifies the extreme points of price cycles,” explains the analyst. The indicator makes use of various popular Bitcoin on-chain indicators like the MVRV Ratio and SOPR to determine this.

分析師解釋說：“循環極端標識了價格週期的極端點。”該指標利用各種流行的比特幣鍊鍊指標（如MVRV比率和SOPR）來確定這一點。

Chart of the Cycle Extreme indicator shared by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr on X

CryptoQuant作者Axel Adler JR共享的周期極端指標圖表

As is apparent from the graph, the indicator has often been reliable for pointing out inflection points in Bitcoin. “At the moment, this metric does not give any clear signals,” notes Adler Jr.

從圖表中可以明顯看出，指標通常可以可靠地指出比特幣中的拐點。 “目前，該指標尚未發出任何明確的信號，” Adler Jr.指出。

BTC Price

BTC價格

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $83,600, up almost 1% over the last week.

在寫作時，比特幣的交易約為83,600美元，比上週增長了近1％。