比特币（BTC）交易数量暴跌至2023低

链上数据显示，比特币交易数量已跌至2023年10月以来的最低水平。这是BTC的价格可能意味着的。

In the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, on-chain data serves as an invaluable guide, offering insights into the dynamics of investor behavior and market trends. Recently, CryptoQuant author IT Tech, known for their insightful analysis, took to X to highlight a significant drop in Bitcoin (BTC) transfer activity, an observation that has sparked discussion among crypto enthusiasts.

在不断发展的加密货币环境中，链链数据是一份无价的指南，为投资者行为和市场趋势的动态提供了见解。最近，以洞察力的分析而闻名的Cryptoquant作家IT Tech（IT Tech）突出了比特币（BTC）转移活动的大幅度下降，这一观察结果激发了加密爱好者之间的讨论。

Chart of the Number of Transactions indicator shared by CryptoQuant author IT Tech on X

CryptoQuant作者IT Tech在X上共享的交易指标数量图表

As pointed out by Tech, the relevant indicator here is the “Number of Transactions” from market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, which measures, as its name suggests, the daily number of moves that addresses across the network are making.

正如Tech所指出的那样，这里的相关指标是市场情报平台Intotheblock的“交易数”，顾名思义，它衡量了整个网络中解决的每日移动数量。

Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst, that shows the trend in its value over the last few years:

现在，这是分析师共享的图表，它显示了过去几年其价值的趋势：

As displayed in the above graph, the Number of Transactions has seen a large drop recently, suggesting that investors are making much fewer moves on the blockchain now.

如上图所示，交易的数量最近看到了很大的下降，这表明投资者现在在区块链上的举动较少。

Generally, a drop in network transaction activity is a sign that the traders are losing interest in the cryptocurrency. Any notable move in the price is only sustainable when a large number of investors are providing the fuel to support it, so it can be hard for BTC to mount up a rally when the Number of Transactions declines to a low level.

通常，网络交易活动的下降表明交易者正在失去对加密货币的兴趣。只有在大量投资者提供支持燃料的燃料时，任何值得注意的举动都是可持续的，因此，当交易数量下降到低水平时，BTC可能很难进行集会。

From the chart, it’s visible that the investors were making a high number of moves in the lead-up to the Bitcoin price rally beyond $100,000. But interestingly, the indicator plunged before the price peak arrived, implying that signs of the rally not having too much time left may have already been there from an on-chain perspective.

从图表来看，可以看到投资者在比特币价格集会上进行大量行动，超过100,000美元。但是有趣的是，该指标在价格峰值到达之前就跌落了，这意味着从链的角度来看，集会没有太多时间的迹象可能已经在那里。

Recently, the Number of Transactions briefly crashed to a level that it hasn't touched since October 2023. Back then, the low transfer count didn’t last for too long and was in fact followed up by a burst of activity that accompanied a price rally.

最近，交易的数量短暂撞到了自2023年10月以来一直没有触及的水平。那时，低转移计数并没有持续太久，实际上随后发生了一系列活动，伴随着价格集会。

It’s possible that something similar could happen this time as well, but one key difference between then and now is that the recent downturn in the indicator has been more prolonged. Naturally, if things are indeed going to be different this time, then a lasting lack of interest from the investors could be a bad sign for the bulls.

这次可能也可能发生类似的事情，但是现在和现在之间的一个关键区别是，该指标最近的低迷延长了。自然，如果这次情况确实会有所不同，那么投资者持久的兴趣可能对公牛队来说是一个不好的信号。

That said, one indicator that may provide for an argument against a shift away from a bull market is the Cycle Extreme shared by Axel Adler Jr, another CryptoQuant author.

也就是说，一个可能规定反对从牛市转变的指标是另一位加密夸张作者Axel Adler JR共享的周期极端。

“Cycle Extreme identifies the extreme points of price cycles,” explains the analyst. The indicator makes use of various popular Bitcoin on-chain indicators like the MVRV Ratio and SOPR to determine this.

分析师解释说：“循环极端标识了价格周期的极端点。”该指标利用各种流行的比特币链链指标（如MVRV比率和SOPR）来确定这一点。

Chart of the Cycle Extreme indicator shared by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr on X

CryptoQuant作者Axel Adler JR共享的周期极端指标图表

As is apparent from the graph, the indicator has often been reliable for pointing out inflection points in Bitcoin. “At the moment, this metric does not give any clear signals,” notes Adler Jr.

从图表中可以明显看出，指标通常可以可靠地指出比特币中的拐点。 “目前，该指标尚未发出任何明确的信号，” Adler Jr.指出。

BTC Price

BTC价格

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $83,600, up almost 1% over the last week.

在写作时，比特币的交易约为83,600美元，比上周增长了近1％。