比特幣（BTC）希望從最近的低迷中恢復過

美聯儲將在UTC 18:00宣布其費率審查，其次是杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）的新聞發布會，半小時後。

As bitcoin (BTC) looks to recover from its recent downturn, observers will be looking to Wednesday's Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision to offer support, with some saying that an announcement to end the balance sheet runoff program, known as quantitative tightening, could be positive news for the market.

正如比特幣（BTC）希望從最近的低迷中恢復的那樣，觀察家將尋求週三的美聯儲（美聯儲）稅率決定提供支持，有人說宣布結束資產負債表徑流計劃（稱為定量縮減）可能是市場的積極消息。

The Fed will announce its rate review at 18:00 UTC, followed by Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference half an hour later.

美聯儲將在UTC 18:00宣布其費率審查，其次是杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）的新聞發布會，半小時後。

The bank is unlikely to offer any surprises on the interest rate front, retaining the present range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Therefore, the focus will be on how policymakers plan to proceed with the quantitative tightening program, given the concerns that it could affect liquidity in the system while the Treasury grapples with the ongoing debt ceiling issue. Plus, the summary of economic projections will be watched out by markets.

該銀行不太可能在利率方面帶來任何驚喜，將目前的範圍保持在4.25％至4.50％。因此，鑑於人們擔心它可能會影響系統流動性，而財政部應對正在進行的債務上限問題，因此重點將放在政策制定者計劃如何進行定量收緊計劃上。另外，市場將列出經濟預測的摘要。

Since June 2022, the Fed, under the QT program, has been slowly shrinking its balance sheet, which had zoomed to a record of $9 trillion post COVID when the bank bought trillions of dollars worth of assets, including bonds, to support markets.

自2022年6月以來，根據QT計劃，美聯儲一直在逐漸收縮其資產負債表，當銀行購買了價值數万億美元的資產（包括債券）以支持市場時，該資產負債表已縮小到9萬億美元的紀錄。

The minutes of the January Fed meeting showed policymakers discussed pausing or slowing the reversal of the balance sheet expansion that greased the crypto bull market of 2020-21. So, the possibility of Powell hinting the same later today cannot be ruled out.

一月份的美聯儲會議的會議記錄顯示，決策者討論了暫停或減慢資產負債表擴張的逆轉，這使加密牛市2020-21的加油式牛市化了。因此，鮑威爾在今天晚些時候暗示的可能性不能排除在外。

"Late last year, Fed Chair Powell hinted that the end of QT was coming in 2025. If he mentions it in tomorrow’s [Wednesday's] statement or press conference (I imagine someone will ask him), that would end up signalling that we’re in a new monetary regime, and that the Fed stands ready to resume additional debt purchases should QE become necessary again," Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter said in Tuesday's edition.

“去年年底，美聯儲主席鮑威爾暗示QT結束於2025年。如果他在明天的[星期三]聲明或新聞發布會上提到這一點（我想有人會問他），那最終會發出信號，這表明我們處於新的貨幣制度，而美聯儲則準備額外購買的額外債務，” Noelle Acheson Acheson Acheson的作家，這是QE的額外債務。

"While renewed QE [quantitive easing] unlikely any time soon, the additional liquidity from a large buyer (the Fed) coming back into the market to replace maturing holdings would be good news," Acheson added, noting that the end of QT would be a timely move to avoid liquidity glitches in the Treasury market that faces $9 trillion in debt maturity this year.

Acheson補充說：“雖然不太可能在任何時間更新QE [量化寬鬆]，但大型買家（美聯儲）回到市場上的額外流動性將是個好消息。”

New York Life Investments' Economist Lauren Goodwin expressed a similar view, saying a slightly earlier end to the balance sheet runoff could provide the market with the dovish signal it is looking for.

紐約生活投資的經濟學家勞倫·古德溫（Lauren Goodwin）也表達了類似的看法，稱資產負債表徑流的結局稍早，可以為市場提供所需的骯髒信號。

Traders over decentralized betting platform Polymarket see a 100% chance that the Fed will end the QT program before May. The betting on the same will resolve in "Yes" if the central bank increases the amount of securities it holds outright week-over-week by the end of April.

交易者在分散的投注平台Polmarket上看到美聯儲在5月之前結束QT計劃的機會100％。如果中央銀行在4月底之前將其完全持有的證券數量增加，則在“是”中的投注將在“是”中解決。

Bank of America predicts end of QTSeveral investment banks, including Bank of America, expect the Fed to end QT in a meeting characterized by uncertain economic outlook mainly stemming from President Donald Trump's trade tariffs.

美國銀行預測，包括美國銀行在內的QTSEVERAL投資銀行的結束預計，美聯儲在一次會議上結束了QT，其特徵是不確定的經濟前景，主要來自唐納德·特朗普總統的貿易關稅。

"Our rates strategists expect the statement to indicate that the Fed is pausing QT until the debt ceiling is resolved, as suggested in the January meeting minutes. They do not expect to restart after the debt ceiling is addressed, but the announcement won't be made until later this year," Bank of America's March 14 client note said.

“我們的費率戰略家預計該聲明將表明，正如一月份的會議記錄中所建議的那樣，美聯儲將暫停QT，直到解決債務上限為止。他們不希望在解決債務上限後重新啟動，但直到今年晚些時候才提出這一消息。”

A pause in QT could put downward pressure on the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, the so-called risk-free rate, galvanizing demand for riskier assets.

QT的停頓可能會對美國財政部10年的收益率下降壓力，所謂的無風險利率，對風險較高的資產的鍍鋅需求。

Watch out for stagflation hintsTrump's tariffs have revved up inflation risks while posing risks to economic growth, a stagflationary situation, and the Fed's summary of economic projections (SEP) could reflect that. A nod to stagflation could mean a delay in further rate cuts, potentially limiting bitcoin gains from a QT pause announcement.

當心陷阱的興高采烈的關稅加劇了通貨膨脹的風險，同時構成了經濟增長，停滯狀況以及美聯儲的經濟預測摘要（SEP）的風險，可以反映出這一點。對停滯的點頭可能意味著延遲進一步的降低，這可能會限制QT暫停公告中的比特幣收益。

According to Acheson, chances of a stagflationary adjustment in the SEP – lower GDP projections and higher core PCE estimates, with more policymakers citing upside risks to inflation – are high.

根據acheson的說法，SEP中的滯水調整的機會較低 - GDP預測和較高的核心PCE估計值以及更多的政策制定者以通貨膨脹的上漲風險為高。

"If, indeed, we get that stagflationary shift in official projections, the market is unlikely to be happy. To some extent, these are starting to be priced in – but confirmation that the Fed is likely to push rate cuts even further out could startle those counting on liquidity injections," Acheson said.

阿奇森說：“如果確實，如果我們在官方預測中發生了停滯的轉變，那麼市場就不太可能感到高興。在某種程度上，這些市場開始被定價 - 但確認美聯儲很可能會進一步降低降低速度可能會驚嚇那些對流動性注射的人的震驚。”

The recently released U.S. retail sales and regional manufacturing indices revealed signs of economic weakness, Meanwhile, forward-looking inflation metrics have been rising, likely adjusting to Trump's tariffs.

最近發布的美國零售銷售和區域製造指數揭示了經濟疲軟的跡象，與此同時，前瞻性通貨膨脹指標正在上升，可能會適應特朗普的關稅。

Bank of America put it best: "The combination of signal from the latest data and policies enacted to date should result in the Fed downgrading growth and upgrading inflation this year, a small nod to stagflation."

美國銀行認為這是最好的：“迄今為止，最新數據和政策的信號結合起來，應該導緻美聯儲降低了今年的增長和升級通貨膨脹，這是對停滯的小點。”

"The dot plot should still show two cuts in '25 and '26," the investment bank added.

投資銀行補充說：“ DOT圖仍應顯示25和'26的兩次削減。”