比特币（BTC）希望从最近的低迷中恢复过

美联储将在UTC 18:00宣布其费率审查，其次是杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的新闻发布会，半小时后。

As bitcoin (BTC) looks to recover from its recent downturn, observers will be looking to Wednesday's Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision to offer support, with some saying that an announcement to end the balance sheet runoff program, known as quantitative tightening, could be positive news for the market.

正如比特币（BTC）希望从最近的低迷中恢复的那样，观察家将寻求周三的美联储（美联储）税率决定提供支持，有人说宣布结束资产负债表径流计划（称为定量缩减）可能是市场的积极消息。

The Fed will announce its rate review at 18:00 UTC, followed by Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference half an hour later.

美联储将在UTC 18:00宣布其费率审查，其次是杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的新闻发布会，半小时后。

The bank is unlikely to offer any surprises on the interest rate front, retaining the present range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Therefore, the focus will be on how policymakers plan to proceed with the quantitative tightening program, given the concerns that it could affect liquidity in the system while the Treasury grapples with the ongoing debt ceiling issue. Plus, the summary of economic projections will be watched out by markets.

该银行不太可能在利率方面带来任何惊喜，将目前的范围保持在4.25％至4.50％。因此，鉴于人们担心它可能会影响系统流动性，而财政部应对正在进行的债务上限问题，因此重点将放在政策制定者计划如何进行定量收紧计划上。另外，市场将列出经济预测的摘要。

Since June 2022, the Fed, under the QT program, has been slowly shrinking its balance sheet, which had zoomed to a record of $9 trillion post COVID when the bank bought trillions of dollars worth of assets, including bonds, to support markets.

自2022年6月以来，根据QT计划，美联储一直在逐渐收缩其资产负债表，当银行购买了价值数万亿美元的资产（包括债券）以支持市场时，该资产负债表已缩小到9万亿美元的纪录。

The minutes of the January Fed meeting showed policymakers discussed pausing or slowing the reversal of the balance sheet expansion that greased the crypto bull market of 2020-21. So, the possibility of Powell hinting the same later today cannot be ruled out.

一月份的美联储会议的会议记录显示，决策者讨论了暂停或减慢资产负债表扩张的逆转，这使加密牛市2020-21的加油式牛市化了。因此，鲍威尔在今天晚些时候暗示的可能性不能排除在外。

"Late last year, Fed Chair Powell hinted that the end of QT was coming in 2025. If he mentions it in tomorrow’s [Wednesday's] statement or press conference (I imagine someone will ask him), that would end up signalling that we’re in a new monetary regime, and that the Fed stands ready to resume additional debt purchases should QE become necessary again," Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter said in Tuesday's edition.

“去年年底，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示QT结束于2025年。如果他在明天的[星期三]声明或新闻发布会上提到这一点（我想有人会问他），那最终会发出信号，这表明我们处于新的货币制度，而美联储则准备额外购买的额外债务，” Noelle Acheson Acheson Acheson的作家，这是QE的额外债务。

"While renewed QE [quantitive easing] unlikely any time soon, the additional liquidity from a large buyer (the Fed) coming back into the market to replace maturing holdings would be good news," Acheson added, noting that the end of QT would be a timely move to avoid liquidity glitches in the Treasury market that faces $9 trillion in debt maturity this year.

Acheson补充说：“虽然不太可能在任何时间更新QE [量化宽松]，但大型买家（美联储）回到市场上的额外流动性将是个好消息。”

New York Life Investments' Economist Lauren Goodwin expressed a similar view, saying a slightly earlier end to the balance sheet runoff could provide the market with the dovish signal it is looking for.

纽约生活投资的经济学家劳伦·古德温（Lauren Goodwin）也表达了类似的看法，称资产负债表径流的结局稍早，可以为市场提供所需的肮脏信号。

Traders over decentralized betting platform Polymarket see a 100% chance that the Fed will end the QT program before May. The betting on the same will resolve in "Yes" if the central bank increases the amount of securities it holds outright week-over-week by the end of April.

交易者在分散的投注平台Polmarket上看到美联储在5月之前结束QT计划的机会100％。如果中央银行在4月底之前将其完全持有的证券数量增加，则在“是”中的投注将在“是”中解决。

Bank of America predicts end of QTSeveral investment banks, including Bank of America, expect the Fed to end QT in a meeting characterized by uncertain economic outlook mainly stemming from President Donald Trump's trade tariffs.

美国银行预测，包括美国银行在内的QTSEVERAL投资银行的结束预计，美联储在一次会议上结束了QT，其特征是不确定的经济前景，主要来自唐纳德·特朗普总统的贸易关税。

"Our rates strategists expect the statement to indicate that the Fed is pausing QT until the debt ceiling is resolved, as suggested in the January meeting minutes. They do not expect to restart after the debt ceiling is addressed, but the announcement won't be made until later this year," Bank of America's March 14 client note said.

“我们的费率战略家预计该声明将表明，正如一月份的会议记录中所建议的那样，美联储将暂停QT，直到解决债务上限为止。他们不希望在解决债务上限后重新启动，但直到今年晚些时候才提出这一消息。”

A pause in QT could put downward pressure on the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, the so-called risk-free rate, galvanizing demand for riskier assets.

QT的停顿可能会对美国财政部10年的收益率下降压力，所谓的无风险利率，对风险较高的资产的镀锌需求。

Watch out for stagflation hintsTrump's tariffs have revved up inflation risks while posing risks to economic growth, a stagflationary situation, and the Fed's summary of economic projections (SEP) could reflect that. A nod to stagflation could mean a delay in further rate cuts, potentially limiting bitcoin gains from a QT pause announcement.

当心陷阱的兴高采烈的关税加剧了通货膨胀的风险，同时构成了经济增长，停滞状况以及美联储的经济预测摘要（SEP）的风险，可以反映出这一点。对停滞的点头可能意味着延迟进一步的降低，这可能会限制QT暂停公告中的比特币收益。

According to Acheson, chances of a stagflationary adjustment in the SEP – lower GDP projections and higher core PCE estimates, with more policymakers citing upside risks to inflation – are high.

根据acheson的说法，SEP中的滞水调整的机会较低 - GDP预测和较高的核心PCE估计值以及更多的政策制定者以通货膨胀的上涨风险为高。

"If, indeed, we get that stagflationary shift in official projections, the market is unlikely to be happy. To some extent, these are starting to be priced in – but confirmation that the Fed is likely to push rate cuts even further out could startle those counting on liquidity injections," Acheson said.

阿奇森说：“如果确实，如果我们在官方预测中发生了停滞的转变，那么市场就不太可能感到高兴。在某种程度上，这些市场开始被定价 - 但确认美联储很可能会进一步降低降低速度可能会惊吓那些对流动性注射的人的震惊。”

The recently released U.S. retail sales and regional manufacturing indices revealed signs of economic weakness, Meanwhile, forward-looking inflation metrics have been rising, likely adjusting to Trump's tariffs.

最近发布的美国零售销售和区域制造指数揭示了经济疲软的迹象，与此同时，前瞻性通货膨胀指标正在上升，可能会适应特朗普的关税。

Bank of America put it best: "The combination of signal from the latest data and policies enacted to date should result in the Fed downgrading growth and upgrading inflation this year, a small nod to stagflation."

美国银行认为这是最好的：“迄今为止，最新数据和政策的信号结合起来，应该导致美联储降低了今年的增长和升级通货膨胀，这是对停滞的小点。”

"The dot plot should still show two cuts in '25 and '26," the investment bank added.

投资银行补充说：“ DOT图仍应显示25和'26的两次削减。”