比特幣 (BTC) 重回 10 萬美元，頭肩形態失效？

比特幣(BTC) 昨天突破了心理上重要的100,000 美元價格水平，激發了多頭的樂觀情緒，認為該數位資產可能會繼續其上漲勢頭，並在未來幾週內創下新的歷史高點(ATH) 。

Bitcoin (BTC) breached the psychologically significant $100,000 price level on Wednesday, sparking optimism among bulls that the digital asset could continue its upward momentum and reach new all-time highs (ATH) in the coming weeks.

比特幣(BTC) 週三突破了10 萬美元的心理重要價格水平，引發了多頭的樂觀情緒，認為該數位資產可能會繼續其上漲勢頭，並在未來幾週內達到新的歷史高點(ATH) 。

However, as Bitcoin reclaims key price points, speculation regarding its future price direction has also heated up, with analysts keeping a close eye on bearish chart patterns for potential invalidation, which could indicate a continuation of the bull run.

然而，隨著比特幣重新奪回關鍵價格點，對其未來價格方向的猜測也隨之升溫，分析師密切關注看跌圖表模式是否可能失效，這可能表明多頭市場仍在繼續。

One such bearish formation is the daily chart head-and-shoulders pattern, which garnered substantial attention throughout December. This pattern was seen as a potential signal for Bitcoin to experience a sharp correction down to the mid-$70,000 range.

其中一種看跌形態是日線圖頭肩形態，該形態在整個 12 月引起了廣泛關注。這種模式被視為比特幣經歷大幅回調至 7 萬美元區間中期的潛在訊號。

For those unfamiliar, a head and shoulders pattern is a bearish chart formation that indicates a possible reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend. It features three peaks with the middle peak as the highest, known as the “head,” flanked by two lower peaks called “shoulders,” and a neckline acting as a critical support level. A break below this neckline confirms the bearish trend.

對於那些不熟悉的人來說，頭肩形態是一種看跌圖表形態，表明可能從上升趨勢反轉為下降趨勢。它具有三個峰值，其中中間的峰值為最高，稱為“頭部”，兩側是兩個較低的峰值，稱為“肩部”，以及作為關鍵支撐位的頸線。跌破該頸線證實了看跌趨勢。

But as Bitcoin rallies past $100,000, the chances of the head-and-shoulders pattern materializing have grown slimmer. According to crypto analyst Aksel Kibar, current market conditions suggest the bearish scenario may fail to play out. Kibar stated:

但隨著比特幣漲至 10 萬美元以上，頭肩型態實現的可能性變得越來越小。加密貨幣分析師 Aksel Kibar 表示，目前的市場狀況顯示看跌情景可能不會出現。基巴爾表示：

BTCUSD On daily scale formed a similar head-and-shoulders top. Price is now challenging the high of the possible right shoulder. Breach can result in a pattern negation and should be considered bullish. Head-and-shoulders failure price target stands at 116K.

BTCUSD 日線圖形成了類似的頭肩頂。價格現在正在挑戰可能的右肩高點。突破可能導致模式否定，應視為看漲。頭肩頂失敗目標價為 116K。

Kibar also noted that even if the head-and-shoulders pattern does play out and Bitcoin drops to $73,800, it might still not disrupt the broader bullish trend. Such a retracement would likely serve as a pullback to test the previous ATH around $73,000 as a new support level.

Kibar 還指出，即使頭肩頂形態確實出現並且比特幣跌至 73,800 美元，它可能仍然不會擾亂更廣泛的看漲趨勢。這樣的回調可能會作為回調來測試之前 73,000 美元左右的 ATH 作為新的支撐位。

It is worth noting that since surpassing its March 2024 ATH, Bitcoin has not experienced a major pullback, aside from a flash crash to $90,500 on December 4. Typically, bull markets are characterized by steep price declines followed by rapid recoveries, setting the stage for the next leg upward.

值得注意的是，自超過2024 年3 月的最高點以來，除了12 月4 日閃崩至90,500 美元之外，比特幣並未經歷過重大回調。反彈，這為比特幣的未來奠定了基礎。

Bitcoin Price Projections For 2025

2025 年比特幣價格預測

Price forecasts for Bitcoin in 2025 remain largely bullish. For example, crypto analyst Jason A. Williams predicts that BTC could reach $131,500 by the first quarter of 2025.

對 2025 年比特幣價格的預測仍然基本看漲。例如，加密貨幣分析師 Jason A. Williams 預測 BTC 到 2025 年第一季可能會達到 131,500 美元。

Similarly, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick envisions Bitcoin climbing to $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by factors such as strategic Bitcoin reserves and increasing institutional interest.

同樣，渣打銀行分析師 Geoff Kendrick 預計，在比特幣戰略儲備和機構興趣增加等因素的推動下，到 2025 年底，比特幣價格將攀升至 20 萬美元。

However, crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes has issued a warning, suggesting that the broader crypto market may face a “harrowing dump” around President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20. At press time, BTC trades at $100,099, down 0.7% in the past 24 hours.

然而，加密貨幣企業家Arthur Hayes 發出警告，暗示更廣泛的加密貨幣市場可能會在1 月20 日當選總統唐納德·特朗普就職典禮周圍面臨“慘痛的暴跌”。 100,099 美元，較過去下跌0.7% 24小時。