比特币 (BTC) 重回 10 万美元，头肩形态失效？

比特币 (BTC) 昨天突破了心理上重要的 100,000 美元价格水平，激发了多头的乐观情绪，认为该数字资产可能会继续其上涨势头，并在未来几周内创下新的历史高点 (ATH)。

Bitcoin (BTC) breached the psychologically significant $100,000 price level on Wednesday, sparking optimism among bulls that the digital asset could continue its upward momentum and reach new all-time highs (ATH) in the coming weeks.

比特币 (BTC) 周三突破了 10 万美元的心理重要价格水平，引发了多头的乐观情绪，认为该数字资产可能会继续其上涨势头，并在未来几周内达到新的历史高点 (ATH)。

However, as Bitcoin reclaims key price points, speculation regarding its future price direction has also heated up, with analysts keeping a close eye on bearish chart patterns for potential invalidation, which could indicate a continuation of the bull run.

然而，随着比特币重新夺回关键价格点，对其未来价格方向的猜测也随之升温，分析师密切关注看跌图表模式是否可能失效，这可能表明牛市仍在继续。

One such bearish formation is the daily chart head-and-shoulders pattern, which garnered substantial attention throughout December. This pattern was seen as a potential signal for Bitcoin to experience a sharp correction down to the mid-$70,000 range.

其中一种看跌形态是日线图头肩形态，该形态在整个 12 月引起了广泛关注。这种模式被视为比特币经历大幅回调至 70,000 美元区间中期的潜在信号。

For those unfamiliar, a head and shoulders pattern is a bearish chart formation that indicates a possible reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend. It features three peaks with the middle peak as the highest, known as the “head,” flanked by two lower peaks called “shoulders,” and a neckline acting as a critical support level. A break below this neckline confirms the bearish trend.

对于那些不熟悉的人来说，头肩形态是一种看跌图表形态，表明可能从上升趋势反转为下降趋势。它具有三个峰值，其中中间的峰值为最高，称为“头部”，两侧是两个较低的峰值，称为“肩部”，以及作为关键支撑位的颈线。跌破该颈线证实了看跌趋势。

But as Bitcoin rallies past $100,000, the chances of the head-and-shoulders pattern materializing have grown slimmer. According to crypto analyst Aksel Kibar, current market conditions suggest the bearish scenario may fail to play out. Kibar stated:

但随着比特币涨至 10 万美元以上，头肩形态实现的可能性变得越来越小。加密货币分析师 Aksel Kibar 表示，当前的市场状况表明看跌情景可能不会出现。基巴尔表示：

BTCUSD On daily scale formed a similar head-and-shoulders top. Price is now challenging the high of the possible right shoulder. Breach can result in a pattern negation and should be considered bullish. Head-and-shoulders failure price target stands at 116K.

BTCUSD 日线图形成了类似的头肩顶。价格现在正在挑战可能的右肩高点。突破可能导致模式否定，应被视为看涨。头肩顶失败目标价格为 116K。

Kibar also noted that even if the head-and-shoulders pattern does play out and Bitcoin drops to $73,800, it might still not disrupt the broader bullish trend. Such a retracement would likely serve as a pullback to test the previous ATH around $73,000 as a new support level.

Kibar 还指出，即使头肩顶形态确实出现并且比特币跌至 73,800 美元，它可能仍然不会扰乱更广泛的看涨趋势。这样的回调可能会作为回调来测试之前 73,000 美元左右的 ATH 作为新的支撑位。

It is worth noting that since surpassing its March 2024 ATH, Bitcoin has not experienced a major pullback, aside from a flash crash to $90,500 on December 4. Typically, bull markets are characterized by steep price declines followed by rapid recoveries, setting the stage for the next leg upward.

值得注意的是，自超过 2024 年 3 月的最高点以来，除了 12 月 4 日闪崩至 90,500 美元之外，比特币并未经历过重大回调。通常，牛市的特点是价格急剧下跌，随后迅速反弹，这为比特币的未来奠定了基础。下一条腿向上。

Bitcoin Price Projections For 2025

2025 年比特币价格预测

Price forecasts for Bitcoin in 2025 remain largely bullish. For example, crypto analyst Jason A. Williams predicts that BTC could reach $131,500 by the first quarter of 2025.

对 2025 年比特币价格的预测仍然基本看涨。例如，加密货币分析师 Jason A. Williams 预测 BTC 到 2025 年第一季度可能会达到 131,500 美元。

Similarly, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick envisions Bitcoin climbing to $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by factors such as strategic Bitcoin reserves and increasing institutional interest.

同样，渣打银行分析师 Geoff Kendrick 预计，在比特币战略储备和机构兴趣增加等因素的推动下，到 2025 年底，比特币价格将攀升至 20 万美元。

However, crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes has issued a warning, suggesting that the broader crypto market may face a “harrowing dump” around President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20. At press time, BTC trades at $100,099, down 0.7% in the past 24 hours.

然而，加密货币企业家 Arthur Hayes 发出警告，暗示更广泛的加密货币市场可能会在 1 月 20 日当选总统唐纳德·特朗普就职典礼周围面临“惨痛的暴跌”。 截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 100,099 美元，较过去下跌 0.7% 24小时。