比特幣[BTC]可以從黃金[XAU]旋轉資本時回收$ 100k的Q2嗎？

分析人士推測，隨著黃金[XAU]在貿易張力期間擊中新高點，勝過比特幣[BTC]，潛在的頂級可能會將資本轉移到風險資產中。

Analysts believe that with Gold [XAU] hitting new highs in Q1 and outperforming Bitcoin [BTC] during trade tensions, a potential top could shift capital into risk assets.

分析人士認為，隨著黃金[XAU]在貿易緊張局勢期間擊中了Q1的新高點，並且超過比特幣[BTC]，潛在的頂級可能會將資本轉移到風險資產中。

If this rotation occurs, could BTC gain momentum to reclaim $100k in Q2?

如果發生這種旋轉，BTC可以增強動量以在Q2中獲得$ 100K嗎？

Potential rotation from Gold to BTCCredit: TradingView (XAU/USD)

從黃金到BTCCREDIT的潛在旋轉：TradingView（XAU/USD）

Gold’s 70% surge over 16 months has pushed its market cap to $20.75 trillion, now $1.25 trillion above the combined top 10 assets. Consequently, analysts anticipate a capital shift if a local top forms.

在16個月內，Gold的70％激增將其市值推向了20.7.5萬億美元，現在比總十大資產高出1.25萬億美元。因此，分析師預計如果本地最高形式會轉移資本。

The Bank of America survey reinforces the idea – 58% of fund managers overweight gold, while only 3% back BTC. This has limited Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge, yet a shift in positioning could provide upside momentum.

美國銀行的調查加強了這一想法 - 58％的基金經理超重黃金，而後BTC只有3％。這具有限制比特幣作為對沖的吸引力，但是定位的轉變可以提供上行勢頭。

However, macro-driven volatility remains a key variable. BTC is trading 10% below its New Year rally, while gold has extended gains by 17%.

但是，宏驅動的波動率仍然是關鍵變量。 BTC的交易低於其新年集會的10％，而黃金的增長幅度卻增加了17％。

Notably, XAU’s vertical expansion aligned with BTC’s corrective phase, suggesting liquidity displacement.

值得注意的是，XAU的垂直擴展與BTC的糾正階段一致，表明流動性位移。

Put simply, on two distinct market-wide retracements, gold printed new all-time highs while BTC lost key structural support, signaling inverse liquidity rotation.

簡而言之，在兩個不同的市場回曲上，黃金印刷了新的歷史最高點，而BTC失去了關鍵的結構支持，信號轉向流動性旋轉。

However, Gold’s recent pullback saw its Relative Strength Index (RSI) retrace into the bullish demand zone before surging to a fresh ATH of $3,097.

然而，戈德最近的回調使其相對強度指數（RSI）回落到看漲需求區域，然後飆升至新鮮的3,097美元的ATH。

With RSI now in the ‘extreme’ overbought zone, the risk of a corrective move increases.

隨著RSI現在處於“極端”過多的區域，糾正措施的風險增加了。

A decline in gold demand could trigger capital rotation into risk assets. Could this potential shift serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin to reclaim its safe-haven narrative in Q2?

黃金需求的下降可能會觸發資本轉向風險資產。這種潛在的轉變是否可以作為比特幣在Q2中收回其安全敘事的催化劑？

Gold’s rally from $1,820 in October 2023 to $3,100 this week is nothing short of historic. Up +16% YTD, it’s outperforming stocks, currencies, and even the U.S. dollar – despite rising interest rates.

黃金的集會從2023年10月的1,820美元到本週的3,100美元，這是歷史性的。儘管利率上升，但上升 +16％的YTD，它的股票，貨幣甚至美元均優於股票，貨幣甚至美元。

Traditionally, a stronger USD should push gold lower. The simple reason? A strong dollar makes Treasury yields more attractive. But instead, demand for gold has surged, breaking market norms.

傳統上，更強大的美元應該降低黃金。簡單的原因？堅固的美元使財政部產生更具吸引力。但是相反，對黃金的需求激增，破壞了市場規範。

At the same time, inflation is heating up. 1-month annualized PCE inflation just jumped above 4.0%, while 6-month figures are now at 3.1%. As inflation erodes buying power, gold’s appeal as a safe haven is only growing.

同時，通貨膨脹正在加熱。 1個月的年度PCE通貨膨脹率略高於4.0％，而6個月的數字現在為3.1％。隨著通貨膨脹侵蝕購買力的侵蝕，Gold作為避風港的吸引力只會在增長。

Source: Bloomberg

資料來源：彭博

As inflation rebounds, XAU has hit 50 all-time highs in the past 12 months. In fact, ZeroHedge reported that physical gold demand has surged alongside escalating trade tensions, reinforcing its role as a macro hedge.

隨著通貨膨脹的反彈，XAU在過去12個月中一直達到50個歷史最高點。實際上，零海奇報告說，實物黃金的需求與不斷升級的貿易緊張局勢同時加劇了其作為宏觀樹籬的作用。

In January, U.S. gold imports hit a record $30.4 billion. This represents a 2x increase from 2020 pandemic levels.

一月份，美國黃金進口量達到創紀錄的3004億美元。這比2020年的大流行水平增加了2倍。

For BTC to challenge XAU’s dominance, a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve would need to be established.

為了使BTC挑戰Xau的統治地位，需要建立比特幣戰略儲備。

Without such a mechanism, expectations for BTC to reclaim $100k remain speculative, with risk assets still facing liquidity constraints.

沒有這種機制，對BTC收回10萬美元的期望仍然是投機性的，風險資產仍面臨流動性限制。

Despite RSI overextension, XAU’s price action continues to exhibit strong demand absorption. This makes a pullback unlikely — particularly with the impending ‘reciprocal’ tariff announcement, a key macro risk event.

儘管RSI過度擴張，徐的價格行動仍表現出強烈的需求吸收。這使得不太可能引起回調 - 尤其是即將來臨的“倒數”關稅公告，這是一個關鍵的宏風險事件。

In such a climate, Bitcoin’s structural test lies ahead, as Gold remains positioned to extend price discovery into new all-time highs.

在這樣的氣候下，比特幣的結構測試就在未來，因為黃金仍然可以將價格發現擴展到新的歷史最高點。