比特币[BTC]可以从黄金[XAU]旋转资本时回收$ 100k的Q2吗？

分析人士推测，随着黄金[XAU]在贸易张力期间击中新高点，胜过比特币[BTC]，潜在的顶级可能会将资本转移到风险资产中。

Analysts believe that with Gold [XAU] hitting new highs in Q1 and outperforming Bitcoin [BTC] during trade tensions, a potential top could shift capital into risk assets.

分析人士认为，随着黄金[XAU]在贸易紧张局势期间击中了Q1的新高点，并且超过比特币[BTC]，潜在的顶级可能会将资本转移到风险资产中。

If this rotation occurs, could BTC gain momentum to reclaim $100k in Q2?

如果发生这种旋转，BTC可以增强动量以在Q2中获得$ 100K吗？

Potential rotation from Gold to BTCCredit: TradingView (XAU/USD)

从黄金到BTCCREDIT的潜在旋转：TradingView（XAU/USD）

Gold’s 70% surge over 16 months has pushed its market cap to $20.75 trillion, now $1.25 trillion above the combined top 10 assets. Consequently, analysts anticipate a capital shift if a local top forms.

在16个月内，Gold的70％激增将其市值推向了20.7.5万亿美元，现在比总十大资产高出1.25万亿美元。因此，分析师预计如果本地最高形式会转移资本。

The Bank of America survey reinforces the idea – 58% of fund managers overweight gold, while only 3% back BTC. This has limited Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge, yet a shift in positioning could provide upside momentum.

美国银行的调查加强了这一想法 - 58％的基金经理超重黄金，而后BTC只有3％。这具有限制比特币作为对冲的吸引力，但是定位的转变可以提供上行势头。

However, macro-driven volatility remains a key variable. BTC is trading 10% below its New Year rally, while gold has extended gains by 17%.

但是，宏驱动的波动率仍然是关键变量。 BTC的交易低于其新年集会的10％，而黄金的增长幅度却增加了17％。

Notably, XAU’s vertical expansion aligned with BTC’s corrective phase, suggesting liquidity displacement.

值得注意的是，XAU的垂直扩展与BTC的纠正阶段一致，表明流动性位移。

Put simply, on two distinct market-wide retracements, gold printed new all-time highs while BTC lost key structural support, signaling inverse liquidity rotation.

简而言之，在两个不同的市场回曲上，黄金印刷了新的历史最高点，而BTC失去了关键的结构支持，信号转向流动性旋转。

However, Gold’s recent pullback saw its Relative Strength Index (RSI) retrace into the bullish demand zone before surging to a fresh ATH of $3,097.

然而，戈德最近的回调使其相对强度指数（RSI）回落到看涨需求区域，然后飙升至新鲜的3,097美元的ATH。

With RSI now in the ‘extreme’ overbought zone, the risk of a corrective move increases.

随着RSI现在处于“极端”过多的区域，纠正措施的风险增加了。

A decline in gold demand could trigger capital rotation into risk assets. Could this potential shift serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin to reclaim its safe-haven narrative in Q2?

黄金需求的下降可能会触发资本转向风险资产。这种潜在的转变是否可以作为比特币在Q2中收回其安全叙事的催化剂？

Gold’s rally from $1,820 in October 2023 to $3,100 this week is nothing short of historic. Up +16% YTD, it’s outperforming stocks, currencies, and even the U.S. dollar – despite rising interest rates.

黄金的集会从2023年10月的1,820美元到本周的3,100美元，这是历史性的。尽管利率上升，但上升 +16％的YTD，它的股票，货币甚至美元均优于股票，货币甚至美元。

Traditionally, a stronger USD should push gold lower. The simple reason? A strong dollar makes Treasury yields more attractive. But instead, demand for gold has surged, breaking market norms.

传统上，更强大的美元应该降低黄金。简单的原因？坚固的美元使财政部产生更具吸引力。但是相反，对黄金的需求激增，破坏了市场规范。

At the same time, inflation is heating up. 1-month annualized PCE inflation just jumped above 4.0%, while 6-month figures are now at 3.1%. As inflation erodes buying power, gold’s appeal as a safe haven is only growing.

同时，通货膨胀正在加热。 1个月的年度PCE通货膨胀率略高于4.0％，而6个月的数字现在为3.1％。随着通货膨胀侵蚀购买力的侵蚀，Gold作为避风港的吸引力只会在增长。

Source: Bloomberg

资料来源：彭博

As inflation rebounds, XAU has hit 50 all-time highs in the past 12 months. In fact, ZeroHedge reported that physical gold demand has surged alongside escalating trade tensions, reinforcing its role as a macro hedge.

随着通货膨胀的反弹，XAU在过去12个月中一直达到50个历史最高点。实际上，零海奇报告说，实物黄金的需求与不断升级的贸易紧张局势同时加剧了其作为宏观树篱的作用。

In January, U.S. gold imports hit a record $30.4 billion. This represents a 2x increase from 2020 pandemic levels.

一月份，美国黄金进口量达到创纪录的3004亿美元。这比2020年的大流行水平增加了2倍。

For BTC to challenge XAU’s dominance, a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve would need to be established.

为了使BTC挑战Xau的统治地位，需要建立比特币战略储备。

Without such a mechanism, expectations for BTC to reclaim $100k remain speculative, with risk assets still facing liquidity constraints.

没有这种机制，对BTC收回10万美元的期望仍然是投机性的，风险资产仍面临流动性限制。

Despite RSI overextension, XAU’s price action continues to exhibit strong demand absorption. This makes a pullback unlikely — particularly with the impending ‘reciprocal’ tariff announcement, a key macro risk event.

尽管RSI过度扩张，徐的价格行动仍表现出强烈的需求吸收。这使得不太可能引起回调 - 尤其是即将来临的“倒数”关税公告，这是一个关键的宏风险事件。

In such a climate, Bitcoin’s structural test lies ahead, as Gold remains positioned to extend price discovery into new all-time highs.

在这样的气候下，比特币的结构测试就在未来，因为黄金仍然可以将价格发现扩展到新的历史最高点。