比特幣（BTC）價格操縱索賠會重新鋪面，分析師眼睛最終突破

技術分析師James Cryptoguru在1月10日警告他的追隨者有關“加密貨幣的大規模市場操縱”，指控比特幣現貨交易所交易資金（ETF）被用來“清算”商人。

Technical analyst James CryptoGuru shared his theory on Jan. 10, suggesting that Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are being used by large entities to “liquidate” traders. However, this approach carries significant risk and is not always effective due to the unpredictable nature of crypto markets.

技術分析師James Cryptoguru在1月10日分享了他的理論，這表明大型實體正在使用比特幣現貨交易所交易資金（ETF）來“清算”商人。但是，由於加密市場的不可預測性質，這種方法具有很大的風險，並且並不總是有效的。

While some analysts and rumors point to large-order executions and privileged access to liquidation levels, there is no evidence of illegal activity. Even if some players have an advantage, strong incentives exist for them to front-run each other rather than act collectively.

儘管一些分析師和謠言指出了大規模執行和特權訪問清算水平，但沒有任何非法活動的證據。即使某些球員有優勢，也存在強烈的激勵措施，他們互相領先而不是集體行動。

Moreover, even large-scale coordination does not guarantee successful market manipulation, especially with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP not being classified as securities.

此外，即使是大規模的協調也不能保證成功的市場操縱，尤其是在比特幣，以太和XRP等加密貨幣中未被歸類為證券。

In traditional markets, a handful of large fund managers like Vanguard, BlackRock, and Capital Group can easily influence markets with their trades, thanks to the massive assets they manage.

在傳統市場中，由於他們管理的大量資產，少數大型基金經理，例如Vanguard，Blackrock和Capital Group，可以輕鬆地影響市場。

For instance, in November 2024, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a lawsuit against some of the world’s largest fund managers, accusing them of manipulating energy prices through a “cartel to rig the coal market.”

例如，在2024年11月，得克薩斯州檢察長肯·帕克斯頓（Ken Paxton）對世界上一些最大的基金經理提起訴訟，指責他們通過“卡特爾（Cartel）操縱煤炭市場”來操縱能源價格。

Similarly, in October 2024, the US broker unit of Toronto-Dominion Bank agreed to pay over $20 million to settle allegations of manipulating the US Treasurys market.

同樣，在2024年10月，多倫多 - 統治銀行的美國經紀人單位同意支付超過2000萬美元的費用，以解決操縱美國財政部市場的指控。

On the other hand, some theories also suggest that Binance plays a role in these large-scale price drops, either as a participant or the mastermind behind seemingly coordinated drops across multiple assets.

另一方面，有些理論還表明，義務在這些大規模的價格下降中起著作用，無論是作為參與者還是在多個資產中看似協調的下降的背後的策劃者。

According to Jamyies, these entities would drive Bitcoin’s spot price lower to liquidate leveraged buyers — traders using derivative instruments like BTC futures. This strategy creates temporary market disruptions, accelerating the downside move while these so-called “manipulators” accumulate Bitcoin and Ether at discounted prices.

根據Jamyies的說法，這些實體將使比特幣的現貨價格降低，以清算使用BTC Futures等衍生工具的貿易商。該策略會造成臨時市場中斷，加速下行行動，而這些所謂的“操縱器”以折扣價積累了比特幣和以太幣。

This approach becomes especially relevant during weekends and overnight sessions when traditional financial markets are closed. As a result, large-order executions in cryptocurrencies can have a magnified impact during these periods.

當傳統金融市場關閉時，在周末和隔夜會議上，這種方法變得尤為重要。結果，加密貨幣的大型執行在這些時期可能會產生放大影響。

However, it’s crucial to note that Bitcoin’s price movements during these sessions do not always align with trends once US markets open. A constant flow of news and data can shift investor sentiment, making large orders impactful in the short term but offering no guarantee that the effect will last beyond a few minutes or hours.

但是，至關重要的是要注意，一旦美國市場開放，比特幣在這些課程中的價格變動並不總是與趨勢保持一致。不斷的新聞和數據流可以改變投資者的情緒，在短期內產生大量訂單，但不能保證效果會持續幾分鐘或幾個小時。

To further complicate matters, some analysts like “Vincent Van Code” attribute cryptocurrency price crashes to “whale chat groups” using “sophisticated bots” and “war chests” exceeding $100 million.

為了使事情變得更加複雜，一些分析師諸如“ Vincent Van Code”之類的分析師將加密貨幣價格崩潰歸因於“鯨魚聊天組”，使用“複雜的機器人”和“ War Bests”超過1億美元。

These rumors cannot be entirely dismissed, but there is no way to confirm whether large entities collaborate or if Binance has direct ties to any market maker.

這些謠言不能完全被駁回，但是沒有辦法確認大型實體是否合作，或者Binance是否與任何做市商有直接聯繫。

Even if some players have privileged access to liquidation levels and hidden orders on exchanges, strong incentives exist for them to front-run each other rather than act collectively.

即使某些玩家有特權獲得清算水平和交流中隱藏的命令，也存在強烈的激勵措施，使他們彼此領先，而不是集體行動。

Even if a group is coordinating large order executions without special exchange access, there is nothing illegal about it — especially considering that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP are not classified as securities. The same logic applies to a single fund manager holding a $100 million position in crypto.

即使一個小組在沒有特殊交換訪問的情況下協調大訂單執行，也沒有任何違法行為 - 尤其是考慮到像比特幣，以太和XRP這樣的加密貨幣未被歸類為證券。同樣的邏輯也適用於在加密貨幣中擔任1億美元職位的單個基金經理。

In traditional markets, firms like Vanguard, BlackRock, Fidelity, and Capital Group heavily influence markets, controlling 57% of open-end mutual funds and ETFs, according to Morningstar. With a combined $29 trillion in assets under management, their trades can easily influence markets across stocks, bonds, and commodities.

根據晨星公司的說法，在傳統市場中，諸如先鋒，貝萊德，富達和資本集團之類的公司在很大程度上影響了市場，控制著57％的開放式共同基金和ETF。憑藉管理的29萬億美元資產，他們的交易很容易影響股票，債券和商品的市場。

For instance, Vanguard, the world’s second-largest asset manager, is known for its low-cost index funds, which have made it a favorite among retirement savers. As of June 2024, Vanguard manages over $8.9 trillion in assets, making it one of the most powerful players in the financial markets.

例如，Vanguard是世界第二大資產經理，以其低成本指數基金而聞名，這使其成為退休儲蓄器中的最愛。截至2024年6月，Vanguard管理著超過8.9萬億美元的資產，使其成為金融市場上最強大的參與者之一。

Another example is BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with over $10.6 trillion in assets under management. The firm is known for its active management style and its large positions in technology stocks.

另一個例子是貝萊克（Blackrock），這是世界上最大的資產經理，管理資產超過10.6萬億美元。該公司以其積極的管理風格及其在技術股票中的龐大職位而聞名。

Meanwhile, regarding claims that bots are used to “operate across multiple tokens,” this is entirely accurate. Bitcoin continues to dominate the market with a 64% share (excluding stablecoins), which keeps its correlation with altcoin prices extremely high.

同時，關於機器人被用來“跨多個令牌運行”的說法，這是完全準確的。比特幣繼續以64％的份額（不包括Stablecoins）在市場上佔據主導地位，這使其與Altcoin價格的相關性極高。

As a result, most market makers and arbitrage desks adjust their altcoin positions based on Bitcoin’s price movements. In turn, this creates opportunities for traders to use automated trading strategies that follow the lead of Bitcoin.

結果，大多數做市商和套利桌根據比特幣的價格變動來調整其替代幣位置。反過來，這為貿易商創造了使用遵循比特幣領導的自動交易策略的機會。

Similarly, price movements in major tech companies like Microsoft and Nvidia often influence the broader tech sector. In the absence of specific news or events, traders tend to follow the lead of sector leaders, with automated trading strategies and bots typically being the first to react.

同樣，微軟和NVIDIA等主要科技公司的價格變動通常會影響更廣泛的科技領域。在沒有特定新聞或事件的情況下，交易者傾向於跟隨部門領導者的領導，自動交易策略和機器人通常是第一個做出反應的人。

Therefore, the fact that the entire cryptocurrency market often moves in sync is not particularly unusual.

因此，整個加密貨幣市場通常同步轉移的事實並不是特別罕見。

Finally, Bitcoin’s price is expected to eventually break out of its tight range of $95,500 to $98,000, where it has been consolidating since Feb. 5,

最終，比特幣的價格預計最終將從2月5日以來一直在鞏固其95,500至98,000美元的緊張範圍內。