Vaneck的數字資產研究負責

Vaneck的數字資產研究負責人Matthew Sigel闡述了美國財政部如何使用比特幣（BTC）來加強其資產負債表的願景。

VanEck’s Head Of Digital Assets Research envisions U.S. Treasury using Bitcoin to bolster its balance sheet.

Vaneck的數字資產研究負責人將使用比特幣來增強其資產負債表。

What Happened: VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, laid out a vision in a post on X on Friday, highlighting VanEck’s estimates.

發生了什麼：Vaneck的數字資產研究負責人Matthew Sigel在周五X上的一篇文章中提出了願景，強調了Vaneck的估計。

If Bitcoin appreciates at 25% annually, rising from $100,000 today to $21 million per BTC by 2049, the reserve could offset 18% of the projected U.S. debt.

如果比特幣每年以25％的速度欣賞，到2049年，今天的100,000美元增加到每BTC的2100萬美元，那麼該儲備金可以抵消預計的美國債務的18％。

This assumes debt grows at 5% annually, reaching $116 trillion by 2049 (up from $36 trillion in 2025).

這假設債務每年增加5％，到2049年達到116萬億美元（從2025年的36萬億美元上漲）。

While this theory is optimistic, it underscores Bitcoin’s potential as a sovereign reserve asset and a hedge against inflationary debt expansion.

儘管該理論是樂觀的，但它強調了比特幣作為主權儲備資產的潛力和抵制通貨膨脹債務的對沖。

The BITCOIN Act, introduced by Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, proposes the U.S. accumulate 1 million BTC over five years and hold it for at least 20 years as a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

懷俄明州參議員辛西婭·盧米斯（Cynthia Lummis）提出的《比特幣法》提議美國在五年內積累了100萬BTC，並至少將其作為戰略性比特幣儲備至少20年。

See Also: Get Tips On Crypto Investing, Trading And More

另請參閱：獲取有關加密投資，交易等的技巧

The BITCOIN Act, introduced by Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, proposes the U.S. accumulate 1 million BTC over five years and hold it for at least 20 years as a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Image: ProPublica

懷俄明州參議員辛西婭·盧米斯（Cynthia Lummis）提出的《比特幣法》提議美國在五年內積累了100萬BTC，並至少將其作為戰略性比特幣儲備至少20年。圖像：ProPublica

The U.S. national debt stood at $31.4 trillion as of January 2023, according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

根據美國財政部的數據，截至2023年1月，美國國家債務的價格為31.4萬億美元。

Meanwhile, Polymarket now prices in a 44% chance of a U.S. National Bitcoin Reserve in 2025, up from 39% earlier this month.

同時，Polmoarket現在的價格為2025年美國國家比特幣儲備的機會為44％，高於本月初的39％。

Kalshi data sees a 59% probability that Trump would establish a Bitcoin Reserve if elected, up from 53.8% on Feb. 12.

Kalshi數據認為，如果當選，特朗普將建立比特幣儲備的可能性為59％，高於2月12日的53.8％。

Arkansas is set to become the first state to establish a Bitcoin reserve, with amendments expected by March 5.

阿肯色州將成為第一個建立比特幣儲備的州，並預計將於3月5日進行修正。

Meanwhile, Texas is preparing to debate the proposal in its Senate.

同時，德克薩斯州正準備在參議院辯論該提案。

Institutions like VanEck, Grayscale, and Digital Currency Group are among those credited with driving the institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies.

諸如Vaneck，Grayscale和Digital Currency Group之類的機構是推動機構採用加密貨幣的機構。

These firms have launched various crypto funds, trusts, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), making digital assets more accessible to mainstream investors.

這些公司推出了各種加密資金，信託和交易所交易基金（ETF），使主流投資者更容易獲得數字資產。

The increasing institutional involvement has also contributed to the maturation of the cryptocurrency market.

越來越多的機構參與也有助於加密貨幣市場的成熟。

Now, some institutional players are shifting their focus to the potential role of cryptocurrencies in national economies and sovereign wealth funds.

現在，一些機構參與者將重點轉移到了加密貨幣在國民經濟和主權財富基金中的潛在作用。

This line of thinking has been fueled by the economic challenges faced by several countries, including high inflation and rising debt levels.

幾個國家面臨的經濟挑戰（包括高通貨膨脹和債務水平上升）為這種思路帶來了這種思路。

As an example, a recent analysis by VanEck suggests that if the U.S. Treasury were to allocate a portion of its balance sheet to Bitcoin, it could potentially offset a significant amount of the projected national debt over the next 25 years.

例如，Vaneck的最新分析表明，如果美國財政部將其部分資產負債表分配給比特幣，則可能會在未來25年內抵消大量預計的國家債務。

The analysis assumes that Bitcoin will continue to appreciate at a rate of 25% annually, reaching a price of $21 million per BTC by 2049.

該分析假設比特幣將繼續以每年25％的速度欣賞，到2049年，比特幣每年2100萬美元的價格。

During this period, the U.S. debt is expected to grow at 5% annually, reaching $116 trillion by 2049 (up from $36 trillion in 2025).

在此期間，預計美國債務每年增加5％，到2049年達到116萬億美元（高於2025年的36萬億美元）。

Based on these projections, VanEck estimates that if the U.S. Treasury were to hold 5 million BTC by 2049, it could offset approximately 18% of the national debt.

基於這些預測，Vaneck估計，如果美國財政部到2049年將持有500萬BTC，則可能會抵消大約18％的國債。

This calculation is derived by multiplying the projected price of Bitcoin in 2049 ($21 million) by the number of BTC held (5 million) and then dividing the result by the estimated U.S. debt in 2049 ($116 trillion).

該計算是通過將2049年比特幣的預計價格乘以BTC的數量（500萬）的數量，然後將結果除以2049年估計的美國債務（116萬億美元）。

While this theory is highly optimistic and subject to various uncertainties, it underscores Bitcoin’s potential as a sovereign reserve asset and a hedge against inflationary debt expansion.

儘管該理論高度樂觀，並且受到各種不確定性的影響，但它強調了比特幣作為主權儲備資產的潛力和抵制通貨膨脹債務擴張的對沖。

The analysis also highlights the increasing institutional interest in exploring the broader macroeconomic implications of cryptocurrencies.

該分析還強調了探索加密貨幣的更廣泛宏觀經濟含義的製度興趣。