Vaneck的数字资产研究负责

Vaneck的数字资产研究负责人Matthew Sigel阐述了美国财政部如何使用比特币（BTC）来加强其资产负债表的愿景。

VanEck’s Head Of Digital Assets Research envisions U.S. Treasury using Bitcoin to bolster its balance sheet.

Vaneck的数字资产研究负责人将使用比特币来增强其资产负债表。

What Happened: VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, laid out a vision in a post on X on Friday, highlighting VanEck’s estimates.

发生了什么：Vaneck的数字资产研究负责人Matthew Sigel在周五X上的一篇文章中提出了愿景，强调了Vaneck的估计。

If Bitcoin appreciates at 25% annually, rising from $100,000 today to $21 million per BTC by 2049, the reserve could offset 18% of the projected U.S. debt.

如果比特币每年以25％的速度欣赏，到2049年，今天的100,000美元增加到每BTC的2100万美元，那么该储备金可以抵消预计的美国债务的18％。

This assumes debt grows at 5% annually, reaching $116 trillion by 2049 (up from $36 trillion in 2025).

这假设债务每年增加5％，到2049年达到116万亿美元（从2025年的36万亿美元上涨）。

While this theory is optimistic, it underscores Bitcoin’s potential as a sovereign reserve asset and a hedge against inflationary debt expansion.

尽管该理论是乐观的，但它强调了比特币作为主权储备资产的潜力和抵制通货膨胀债务的对冲。

The BITCOIN Act, introduced by Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, proposes the U.S. accumulate 1 million BTC over five years and hold it for at least 20 years as a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

怀俄明州参议员辛西娅·卢米斯（Cynthia Lummis）提出的《比特币法》提议美国在五年内积累了100万BTC，并至少将其作为战略性比特币储备至少20年。

See Also: Get Tips On Crypto Investing, Trading And More

另请参阅：获取有关加密投资，交易等的技巧

The BITCOIN Act, introduced by Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, proposes the U.S. accumulate 1 million BTC over five years and hold it for at least 20 years as a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Image: ProPublica

怀俄明州参议员辛西娅·卢米斯（Cynthia Lummis）提出的《比特币法》提议美国在五年内积累了100万BTC，并至少将其作为战略性比特币储备至少20年。图像：ProPublica

The U.S. national debt stood at $31.4 trillion as of January 2023, according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

根据美国财政部的数据，截至2023年1月，美国国家债务的价格为31.4万亿美元。

Meanwhile, Polymarket now prices in a 44% chance of a U.S. National Bitcoin Reserve in 2025, up from 39% earlier this month.

同时，Polmoarket现在的价格为2025年美国国家比特币储备的机会为44％，高于本月初的39％。

Kalshi data sees a 59% probability that Trump would establish a Bitcoin Reserve if elected, up from 53.8% on Feb. 12.

Kalshi数据认为，如果当选，特朗普将建立比特币储备的可能性为59％，高于2月12日的53.8％。

Arkansas is set to become the first state to establish a Bitcoin reserve, with amendments expected by March 5.

阿肯色州将成为第一个建立比特币储备的州，并预计将于3月5日进行修正。

Meanwhile, Texas is preparing to debate the proposal in its Senate.

同时，德克萨斯州正准备在参议院辩论该提案。

Institutions like VanEck, Grayscale, and Digital Currency Group are among those credited with driving the institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies.

诸如Vaneck，Grayscale和Digital Currency Group之类的机构是推动机构采用加密货币的机构。

These firms have launched various crypto funds, trusts, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), making digital assets more accessible to mainstream investors.

这些公司推出了各种加密资金，信托和交易所交易基金（ETF），使主流投资者更容易获得数字资产。

The increasing institutional involvement has also contributed to the maturation of the cryptocurrency market.

越来越多的机构参与也有助于加密货币市场的成熟。

Now, some institutional players are shifting their focus to the potential role of cryptocurrencies in national economies and sovereign wealth funds.

现在，一些机构参与者将重点转移到了加密货币在国民经济和主权财富基金中的潜在作用。

This line of thinking has been fueled by the economic challenges faced by several countries, including high inflation and rising debt levels.

几个国家面临的经济挑战（包括高通货膨胀和债务水平上升）为这种思路带来了这种思路。

As an example, a recent analysis by VanEck suggests that if the U.S. Treasury were to allocate a portion of its balance sheet to Bitcoin, it could potentially offset a significant amount of the projected national debt over the next 25 years.

例如，Vaneck的最新分析表明，如果美国财政部将其部分资产负债表分配给比特币，则可能会在未来25年内抵消大量预计的国家债务。

The analysis assumes that Bitcoin will continue to appreciate at a rate of 25% annually, reaching a price of $21 million per BTC by 2049.

该分析假设比特币将继续以每年25％的速度欣赏，到2049年，比特币每年2100万美元的价格。

During this period, the U.S. debt is expected to grow at 5% annually, reaching $116 trillion by 2049 (up from $36 trillion in 2025).

在此期间，预计美国债务每年增加5％，到2049年达到116万亿美元（高于2025年的36万亿美元）。

Based on these projections, VanEck estimates that if the U.S. Treasury were to hold 5 million BTC by 2049, it could offset approximately 18% of the national debt.

基于这些预测，Vaneck估计，如果美国财政部到2049年将持有500万BTC，则可能会抵消大约18％的国债。

This calculation is derived by multiplying the projected price of Bitcoin in 2049 ($21 million) by the number of BTC held (5 million) and then dividing the result by the estimated U.S. debt in 2049 ($116 trillion).

该计算是通过将2049年比特币的预计价格乘以BTC的数量（500万）的数量，然后将结果除以2049年估计的美国债务（116万亿美元）。

While this theory is highly optimistic and subject to various uncertainties, it underscores Bitcoin’s potential as a sovereign reserve asset and a hedge against inflationary debt expansion.

尽管该理论高度乐观，并且受到各种不确定性的影响，但它强调了比特币作为主权储备资产的潜力和抵制通货膨胀债务扩张的对冲。

The analysis also highlights the increasing institutional interest in exploring the broader macroeconomic implications of cryptocurrencies.

该分析还强调了探索加密货币的更广泛宏观经济含义的制度兴趣。