比特币（BTC）价格操纵索赔会重新铺面，分析师眼睛最终突破

技术分析师James Cryptoguru在1月10日警告他的追随者有关“加密货币的大规模市场操纵”，指控比特币现货交易所交易资金（ETF）被用来“清算”商人。

Technical analyst James CryptoGuru shared his theory on Jan. 10, suggesting that Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are being used by large entities to “liquidate” traders. However, this approach carries significant risk and is not always effective due to the unpredictable nature of crypto markets.

技术分析师James Cryptoguru在1月10日分享了他的理论，这表明大型实体正在使用比特币现货交易所交易资金（ETF）来“清算”商人。但是，由于加密市场的不可预测性质，这种方法具有很大的风险，并且并不总是有效的。

While some analysts and rumors point to large-order executions and privileged access to liquidation levels, there is no evidence of illegal activity. Even if some players have an advantage, strong incentives exist for them to front-run each other rather than act collectively.

尽管一些分析师和谣言指出了大规模执行和特权访问清算水平，但没有任何非法活动的证据。即使某些球员有优势，也存在强烈的激励措施，他们互相领先而不是集体行动。

Moreover, even large-scale coordination does not guarantee successful market manipulation, especially with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP not being classified as securities.

此外，即使是大规模的协调也不能保证成功的市场操纵，尤其是在比特币，以太和XRP等加密货币中未被归类为证券。

In traditional markets, a handful of large fund managers like Vanguard, BlackRock, and Capital Group can easily influence markets with their trades, thanks to the massive assets they manage.

在传统市场中，由于他们管理的大量资产，少数大型基金经理，例如Vanguard，Blackrock和Capital Group，可以轻松地影响市场。

For instance, in November 2024, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a lawsuit against some of the world’s largest fund managers, accusing them of manipulating energy prices through a “cartel to rig the coal market.”

例如，在2024年11月，得克萨斯州检察长肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）对世界上一些最大的基金经理提起诉讼，指责他们通过“卡特尔（Cartel）操纵煤炭市场”来操纵能源价格。

Similarly, in October 2024, the US broker unit of Toronto-Dominion Bank agreed to pay over $20 million to settle allegations of manipulating the US Treasurys market.

同样，在2024年10月，多伦多 - 统治银行的美国经纪人单位同意支付超过2000万美元的费用，以解决操纵美国财政部市场的指控。

On the other hand, some theories also suggest that Binance plays a role in these large-scale price drops, either as a participant or the mastermind behind seemingly coordinated drops across multiple assets.

另一方面，有些理论还表明，义务在这些大规模的价格下降中起着作用，无论是作为参与者还是在多个资产中看似协调的下降的背后的策划者。

According to Jamyies, these entities would drive Bitcoin’s spot price lower to liquidate leveraged buyers — traders using derivative instruments like BTC futures. This strategy creates temporary market disruptions, accelerating the downside move while these so-called “manipulators” accumulate Bitcoin and Ether at discounted prices.

根据Jamyies的说法，这些实体将使比特币的现货价格降低，以清算使用BTC Futures等衍生工具的贸易商。该策略会造成临时市场中断，加速下行行动，而这些所谓的“操纵器”以折扣价积累了比特币和以太币。

This approach becomes especially relevant during weekends and overnight sessions when traditional financial markets are closed. As a result, large-order executions in cryptocurrencies can have a magnified impact during these periods.

当传统金融市场关闭时，在周末和隔夜会议上，这种方法变得尤为重要。结果，加密货币的大型执行在这些时期可能会产生放大影响。

However, it’s crucial to note that Bitcoin’s price movements during these sessions do not always align with trends once US markets open. A constant flow of news and data can shift investor sentiment, making large orders impactful in the short term but offering no guarantee that the effect will last beyond a few minutes or hours.

但是，至关重要的是要注意，一旦美国市场开放，比特币在这些课程中的价格变动并不总是与趋势保持一致。不断的新闻和数据流可以改变投资者的情绪，在短期内产生大量订单，但不能保证效果会持续几分钟或几个小时。

To further complicate matters, some analysts like “Vincent Van Code” attribute cryptocurrency price crashes to “whale chat groups” using “sophisticated bots” and “war chests” exceeding $100 million.

为了使事情变得更加复杂，一些分析师诸如“ Vincent Van Code”之类的分析师将加密货币价格崩溃归因于“鲸鱼聊天组”，使用“复杂的机器人”和“ War Bests”超过1亿美元。

These rumors cannot be entirely dismissed, but there is no way to confirm whether large entities collaborate or if Binance has direct ties to any market maker.

这些谣言不能完全被驳回，但是没有办法确认大型实体是否合作，或者Binance是否与任何做市商有直接联系。

Even if some players have privileged access to liquidation levels and hidden orders on exchanges, strong incentives exist for them to front-run each other rather than act collectively.

即使某些玩家有特权获得清算水平和交流中隐藏的命令，也存在强烈的激励措施，使他们彼此领先，而不是集体行动。

Even if a group is coordinating large order executions without special exchange access, there is nothing illegal about it — especially considering that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP are not classified as securities. The same logic applies to a single fund manager holding a $100 million position in crypto.

即使一个小组在没有特殊交换访问的情况下协调大订单执行，也没有任何违法行为 - 尤其是考虑到像比特币，以太和XRP这样的加密货币未被归类为证券。同样的逻辑也适用于在加密货币中担任1亿美元职位的单个基金经理。

In traditional markets, firms like Vanguard, BlackRock, Fidelity, and Capital Group heavily influence markets, controlling 57% of open-end mutual funds and ETFs, according to Morningstar. With a combined $29 trillion in assets under management, their trades can easily influence markets across stocks, bonds, and commodities.

根据晨星公司的说法，在传统市场中，诸如先锋，贝莱德，富达和资本集团之类的公司在很大程度上影响了市场，控制着57％的开放式共同基金和ETF。凭借管理的29万亿美元资产，他们的交易很容易影响股票，债券和商品的市场。

For instance, Vanguard, the world’s second-largest asset manager, is known for its low-cost index funds, which have made it a favorite among retirement savers. As of June 2024, Vanguard manages over $8.9 trillion in assets, making it one of the most powerful players in the financial markets.

例如，Vanguard是世界第二大资产经理，以其低成本指数基金而闻名，这使其成为退休储蓄器中的最爱。截至2024年6月，Vanguard管理着超过8.9万亿美元的资产，使其成为金融市场上最强大的参与者之一。

Another example is BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with over $10.6 trillion in assets under management. The firm is known for its active management style and its large positions in technology stocks.

另一个例子是贝莱克（Blackrock），这是世界上最大的资产经理，管理资产超过10.6万亿美元。该公司以其积极的管理风格及其在技术股票中的庞大职位而闻名。

Meanwhile, regarding claims that bots are used to “operate across multiple tokens,” this is entirely accurate. Bitcoin continues to dominate the market with a 64% share (excluding stablecoins), which keeps its correlation with altcoin prices extremely high.

同时，关于机器人被用来“跨多个令牌运行”的说法，这是完全准确的。比特币继续以64％的份额（不包括Stablecoins）在市场上占据主导地位，这使其与Altcoin价格的相关性极高。

As a result, most market makers and arbitrage desks adjust their altcoin positions based on Bitcoin’s price movements. In turn, this creates opportunities for traders to use automated trading strategies that follow the lead of Bitcoin.

结果，大多数做市商和套利桌根据比特币的价格变动来调整其替代币位置。反过来，这为贸易商创造了使用遵循比特币领导的自动交易策略的机会。

Similarly, price movements in major tech companies like Microsoft and Nvidia often influence the broader tech sector. In the absence of specific news or events, traders tend to follow the lead of sector leaders, with automated trading strategies and bots typically being the first to react.

同样，微软和NVIDIA等主要科技公司的价格变动通常会影响更广泛的科技领域。在没有特定新闻或事件的情况下，交易者倾向于跟随部门领导者的领导，自动交易策略和机器人通常是第一个做出反应的人。

Therefore, the fact that the entire cryptocurrency market often moves in sync is not particularly unusual.

因此，整个加密货币市场通常同步转移的事实并不是特别罕见。

Finally, Bitcoin’s price is expected to eventually break out of its tight range of $95,500 to $98,000, where it has been consolidating since Feb. 5,

最终，比特币的价格预计最终将从2月5日以来一直在巩固其95,500至98,000美元的紧张范围内。