分析師表示，比特幣 (BTC) 價格取決於 12 月 CPI 數據和宏觀經濟趨勢

分析師表示，比特幣 2025 年能否達到 20 萬美元的軌跡取決於通膨數據和宏觀經濟趨勢。

Analysis: Bitcoin’s Trajectory Toward $200,000 in 2025 Hinges on Inflation Data, Macro Trends

分析：2025 年比特幣走向 20 萬美元的軌跡取決於通膨數據和宏觀趨勢

Key Points:

要點：

• Bitcoin’s potential 2025 trajectory toward $200,000 is influenced by upcoming inflation data.

• 比特幣 2025 年可能達到 20 萬美元的軌跡受到即將發布的通膨數據的影響。

• Economists predict a 2.9% annualized increase in December CPI, boding well for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

• 經濟學家預測12 月CPI 年率上漲2.9%，對聯準會降息是個好兆頭。

• Persistent high inflation might delay easing, impacting Bitcoin’s momentum.

• 持續的高通膨可能會延遲寬鬆政策，進而影響比特幣的動能。

• Institutional adoption, macroeconomic trends, and government policies are crucial for Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook.

• 機構採用、宏觀經濟趨勢和政府政策對於比特幣的長期看漲前景至關重要。

Bitcoin’s phenomenal 2023 rally has sparked renewed optimism among investors, with some predicting the apex cryptocurrency will soar to $200,000 by 2025. However, this trajectory hinges on key macroeconomic trends, especially upcoming inflation data.

比特幣2023 年驚人的上漲激發了投資者新的樂觀情緒，有些人預測到2025 年這種頂級加密貨幣將飆升至20 萬美元。發布的通膨數據。

Scheduled for release at 8:30 am ET on Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a 2.9% annualized increase and a 0.3% rise month-over-month. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is also forecasted to grow 0.3% monthly.

美國東部時間週三上午 8:30 發布的消費者物價指數 (CPI) 預計年率上漲 2.9%，季增 0.3%。不包括食品和能源的核心消費者物價指數 (CPI) 預計每月將成長 0.3%。

If inflation moderates as anticipated, it will bolster expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could propel risk assets like Bitcoin higher. Lower interest rates typically increase liquidity in both institutional and retail investment markets.

如果通膨如預期放緩，將增強對聯準會降息的預期，這可能會推動比特幣等風險資產走高。較低的利率通常會增加機構和零售投資市場的流動性。

Conversely, persistently high inflation might delay the easing cycle, which could temper Bitcoin’s momentum. Currently, markets are uncertain about further rate cuts, with CME FedWatch data showing traders split on the likelihood of additional cuts this year.

相反，持續的高通膨可能會推遲寬鬆週期，從而削弱比特幣的勢頭。目前，市場對進一步降息不確定，芝商所聯準會觀察數據顯示，交易員對今年進一步降息的可能性存在分歧。

Institutions continue to drive Bitcoin’s long-term bullish narrative. According to CryptoQuant, addresses holding 100–1,000 BTC added $127 billion in 2024, and if this trend continues, capital inflows could reach $520 billion in 2025.

機構繼續推動比特幣的長期看漲敘事。根據 CryptoQuant 的數據，持有 100-1,000 BTC 的地址在 2024 年增加了 1,270 億美元，如果這種趨勢持續下去，2025 年資本流入可能會達到 5,200 億美元。

“Institutions are slowly waking up to the massive opportunity cost of not being fully invested in BTC,” said Ryan McMillin, CIO of Merkle Tree Capital. He added that the recent underperformance of the Producer Price Index might indicate that CPI will follow suit.

Merkle Tree Capital 首席資訊長 Ryan McMillin 表示：“機構正在慢慢意識到沒有完全投資 BTC 所帶來的巨大機會成本。”他補充說，近期生產者物價指數表現不佳可能顯示消費者物價指數也會跟進。

“This would signal the dollar has likely peaked, which should provide relief for risk assets.”

“這將表明美元可能已經見頂，這應該會緩解風險資產的壓力。”

The pro-crypto stance of the incoming U.S. administration, which includes potential policies to weaken the dollar and lower long-term interest rates, adds another layer to Bitcoin’s bullish narrative.

即將上任的美國政府支持加密貨幣的立場，包括削弱美元和降低長期利率的潛在政策，為比特幣的看漲敘事增添了另一層內容。

Despite its potential, Bitcoin also faces challenges. Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, with a surprising 256,000 job gain in December, raises concerns about inflation remaining stubbornly high. This could delay monetary easing, creating headwinds for Bitcoin.

儘管比特幣具有潛力，但它也面臨挑戰。美國勞動市場近期表現強勁，12 月就業人數驚人地增加了 256,000 人，引發了人們對通膨居高不下的擔憂。這可能會推遲貨幣寬鬆政策，為比特幣帶來阻力。

Moreover, CryptoQuant highlights additional risks, such as the possibility of a “sell-the-news” reaction to pro-crypto policies and weak retail participation. However, Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value ratio of 2.3 suggests it remains undervalued compared to historical peaks, leaving room for further growth.

此外，CryptoQuant 還強調了額外的風險，例如對支持加密貨幣政策的「拋售新聞」反應以及零售參與度疲軟的可能性。然而，比特幣的市場價值與已實現價值之比為 2.3，表明與歷史高峰相比，其價值仍然被低估，為進一步增長留下了空間。

Bitcoin is currently in the final year of its four-year cycle, which has historically been a period of significant price increases. Combined with favorable macroeconomic trends, analysts predict Bitcoin could climb between $145,000 and $249,000 by year-end.

比特幣目前正處於四年周期的最後一年，這在歷史上一直是價格大幅上漲的時期。結合有利的宏觀經濟趨勢，分析師預測比特幣到年底可能會攀升至 14.5 萬美元至 24.9 萬美元之間。

As Wednesday’s CPI data approaches, market participants will be closely monitoring any deviations from expectations. Ultimately, Bitcoin’s trajectory toward $200,000 in 2025 will be shaped by how inflation and monetary policy unfold in the coming months.

隨著週三CPI數據的臨近，市場參與者將密切注意任何與預期的偏差。最終，比特幣在 2025 年達到 20 萬美元的軌跡將取決於未來幾個月通膨和貨幣政策的發展。