分析师表示，比特币 (BTC) 价格取决于 12 月 CPI 数据和宏观经济趋势

分析师表示，比特币 2025 年能否达到 20 万美元的轨迹取决于通胀数据和宏观经济趋势。

Analysis: Bitcoin’s Trajectory Toward $200,000 in 2025 Hinges on Inflation Data, Macro Trends

分析：2025 年比特币走向 20 万美元的轨迹取决于通胀数据和宏观趋势

Key Points:

要点：

• Bitcoin’s potential 2025 trajectory toward $200,000 is influenced by upcoming inflation data.

• 比特币 2025 年可能达到 20 万美元的轨迹受到即将发布的通胀数据的影响。

• Economists predict a 2.9% annualized increase in December CPI, boding well for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

• 经济学家预测12 月份CPI 年率上涨2.9%，这对美联储降息是个好兆头。

• Persistent high inflation might delay easing, impacting Bitcoin’s momentum.

• 持续的高通胀可能会延迟宽松政策，从而影响比特币的势头。

• Institutional adoption, macroeconomic trends, and government policies are crucial for Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook.

• 机构采用、宏观经济趋势和政府政策对于比特币的长期看涨前景至关重要。

Bitcoin’s phenomenal 2023 rally has sparked renewed optimism among investors, with some predicting the apex cryptocurrency will soar to $200,000 by 2025. However, this trajectory hinges on key macroeconomic trends, especially upcoming inflation data.

比特币 2023 年惊人的上涨激发了投资者新的乐观情绪，一些人预测到 2025 年这种顶级加密货币将飙升至 20 万美元。然而，这一轨迹取决于关键的宏观经济趋势，尤其是即将发布的通胀数据。

Scheduled for release at 8:30 am ET on Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a 2.9% annualized increase and a 0.3% rise month-over-month. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is also forecasted to grow 0.3% monthly.

预计美国东部时间周三上午 8:30 发布的消费者价格指数 (CPI) 预计年率上涨 2.9%，环比上涨 0.3%。不包括食品和能源的核心消费者物价指数 (CPI) 预计每月将增长 0.3%。

If inflation moderates as anticipated, it will bolster expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could propel risk assets like Bitcoin higher. Lower interest rates typically increase liquidity in both institutional and retail investment markets.

如果通胀如预期放缓，将增强对美联储降息的预期，这可能会推动比特币等风险资产走高。较低的利率通常会增加机构和零售投资市场的流动性。

Conversely, persistently high inflation might delay the easing cycle, which could temper Bitcoin’s momentum. Currently, markets are uncertain about further rate cuts, with CME FedWatch data showing traders split on the likelihood of additional cuts this year.

相反，持续的高通胀可能会推迟宽松周期，从而削弱比特币的势头。目前，市场对进一步降息不确定，芝商所美联储观察数据显示，交易员对今年进一步降息的可能性存在分歧。

Institutions continue to drive Bitcoin’s long-term bullish narrative. According to CryptoQuant, addresses holding 100–1,000 BTC added $127 billion in 2024, and if this trend continues, capital inflows could reach $520 billion in 2025.

机构继续推动比特币的长期看涨叙述。根据 CryptoQuant 的数据，持有 100-1,000 BTC 的地址在 2024 年增加了 1270 亿美元，如果这种趋势持续下去，2025 年资本流入可能会达到 5200 亿美元。

“Institutions are slowly waking up to the massive opportunity cost of not being fully invested in BTC,” said Ryan McMillin, CIO of Merkle Tree Capital. He added that the recent underperformance of the Producer Price Index might indicate that CPI will follow suit.

Merkle Tree Capital 首席信息官 Ryan McMillin 表示：“机构正在慢慢意识到没有完全投资 BTC 所带来的巨大机会成本。”他补充说，近期生产者价格指数表现不佳可能表明消费者物价指数也会效仿。

“This would signal the dollar has likely peaked, which should provide relief for risk assets.”

“这将表明美元可能已经见顶，这应该会缓解风险资产的压力。”

The pro-crypto stance of the incoming U.S. administration, which includes potential policies to weaken the dollar and lower long-term interest rates, adds another layer to Bitcoin’s bullish narrative.

即将上任的美国政府支持加密货币的立场，包括削弱美元和降低长期利率的潜在政策，为比特币的看涨叙事增添了另一层内容。

Despite its potential, Bitcoin also faces challenges. Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, with a surprising 256,000 job gain in December, raises concerns about inflation remaining stubbornly high. This could delay monetary easing, creating headwinds for Bitcoin.

尽管比特币具有潜力，但它也面临着挑战。美国劳动力市场近期表现强劲，12 月份就业人数惊人地增加了 256,000 人，引发了人们对通胀居高不下的担忧。这可能会推迟货币宽松政策，给比特币带来阻力。

Moreover, CryptoQuant highlights additional risks, such as the possibility of a “sell-the-news” reaction to pro-crypto policies and weak retail participation. However, Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value ratio of 2.3 suggests it remains undervalued compared to historical peaks, leaving room for further growth.

此外，CryptoQuant 还强调了额外的风险，例如对支持加密货币政策的“抛售新闻”反应以及零售参与度疲软的可能性。然而，比特币的市场价值与已实现价值之比为 2.3，表明与历史峰值相比，其价值仍然被低估，为进一步增长留下了空间。

Bitcoin is currently in the final year of its four-year cycle, which has historically been a period of significant price increases. Combined with favorable macroeconomic trends, analysts predict Bitcoin could climb between $145,000 and $249,000 by year-end.

比特币目前正处于其四年周期的最后一年，这在历史上一直是价格大幅上涨的时期。结合有利的宏观经济趋势，分析师预测比特币到年底可能会攀升至 145,000 美元至 249,000 美元之间。

As Wednesday’s CPI data approaches, market participants will be closely monitoring any deviations from expectations. Ultimately, Bitcoin’s trajectory toward $200,000 in 2025 will be shaped by how inflation and monetary policy unfold in the coming months.

随着周三CPI数据的临近，市场参与者将密切关注任何与预期的偏差。最终，比特币在 2025 年达到 20 万美元的轨迹将取决于未来几个月通胀和货币政策的发展情况。