比特幣（BTC）價格未能再次嘗試以85,000美元的價格打破電阻

比特幣（BTC）的價格未能在3月17日以85,000美元的價格打破抵抗力。自3月12日以來，BTC價格每天形成了每日蠟燭高點在84,000美元至85,200美元之間，但無法關閉84,600美元以上。

Bitcoin (BTC) price failed another attempt at breaking above resistance at $85,000 on Friday, remaining in "no man's land" on the lower time frame (LTF) of the 1-hour chart.

比特幣（BTC）的價格未能在周五以85,000美元的價格打破電阻，在1小時圖表的較低時間範圍（LTF）上仍保留在“無人土地”中。

Bitcoin 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

比特幣1小時圖表。資料來源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

The term "no man's land" in trading markets defines a price range where movements are characterized by uncertainty, significant risk, and dynamic tension due to external events and conflicting market sentiment.

貿易市場中的“無人土地”一詞定義了一個價格範圍，在該價格範圍內，由於外部事件和市場情緒衝突而導致的不確定性，巨大風險和動態張力為特徵。

As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is set to take place on Monday and Tuesday, markets could see volatile price swings toward critical BTC price levels over the next few days.

由於聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議定於週一和周二舉行，因此市場可能會在接下來的幾天內看到朝著關鍵BTC價格水平的波動價格波動。

The critical announcement on the interest rate will be made on Tuesday at 2 pm ET.

有關利率的關鍵公告將於週二下午2點美國東部時間。

99% chance interest rates won’t change

99％的機會利率不會改變

According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 99% chance that the current interest rates will remain between 4.25% and 4.50%, leaving just a 1% probability of a 0.25% rate cut.

根據CME的FedWatch工具，目前的利率將保持在4.25％和4.50％之間，只有99％的可能性，僅降低了0.25％的利率。

CME's FedWatchtool interest rate expectations. Source: CME Group

CME的FedWatchTool利率期望。資料來源：CME組

However, a common market belief is that any bearish price action from unchanged interest rates is already priced in.

但是，一個普遍的市場信念是，未改變利率的任何看跌價格行動都已被定價。

Related: Bitcoin price fails to go parabolic as the US Dollar Index (DXY) falls — Why?

相關：由於美元指數（DXY）跌倒，比特幣價格無法拋棄 - 為什麼？

Therefore, the market is focused on Jerome Powell, the US Fed chair's speech during the FOMC speech. With respect to the recent data, Powell's stance is likely to be hawkish. The assessment is based on the following points:

因此，市場集中在美國美聯儲主席在FOMC演講中的講話杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）。關於最近的數據，鮑威爾的立場可能是霍克什。評估基於以下幾點：

Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains at 2.8%, which is still above the Fed's 2% primary target and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index stood at 2.5%-2.6%. While CPI came in lower than expected last week, it does not encourage immediate rate cuts.

消費者價格指數（CPI）保持在2.8％，這仍然高於美聯儲2％的主要目標，個人消費支出（PCE）價格指數為2.5％-2.6％。儘管CPI的速度低於上週的預期，但它不鼓勵立即降低降低稅率。

Unemployment data remains low at 4.1%, with an annual GDP growth of 2.3% in Q4 2024, indicating the economy does not need immediate stimulus.

失業數據仍較低，為4.1％，第四季度2024年的GDP年齡為2.3％，表明經濟不需要立即刺激。

Meanwhile, Polymarket now says there's a 100% chance that the US Federal Reserve will conclude quantitative tightening (QT) by the end of April, which would boost the odds of a rate cut as early as this summer.

同時，Polymarket現在表示，到4月底，美國美聯儲有100％的機會得出定量收緊（QT）的可能性，這將提高今年夏天降低稅率的機率。