加密首席執行官Ki Young Ju聲稱比特幣的BTC/USD公牛週期似乎已經結束

區塊鏈分析公司CryptoQuant的創始人兼首席執行官Ki Young Ju表示，比特幣的BTC/USD公牛週期似乎已經結束。

Ki Young Ju, the Founder and CEO of blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, is signaling that Bitcoin’s BTC/USD bull cycle might be coming to an end.

區塊鏈分析公司CryptoQuant的創始人兼首席執行官Ki Young Ju表示，比特幣的BTC/USD Bull Cycle可能即將結束。

This comes as CryptoQuant’s PnL Index chart, which tracks cryptocurrency's price in relation to on-chain profitability, is indicating a sell signal. This, according to the firm, has historically coincided with major market turning points.

這就是加密量牌的PNL指數圖表，該圖表跟踪加密貨幣與鏈利潤的價格相關的價格表明賣出信號。該公司認為，這與主要的市場轉折點相吻合。

“We are likely past the bull cycle peak,” Ju stated, hinting that Bitcoin might be entering a period of consolidation or even sideways to bearish movement for the next six to twelve months.

朱說：“我們可能已經超越了公牛週期的峰。”他暗示，在接下來的六到十二個月中，比特幣可能會進入一段時間的整合甚至側面進行看跌。

What Happened: CryptoQuant’s chart, which spans over a decade of Bitcoin's price history, integrates a unique aspect of the firm's proprietary Index. This Index, which measures the realized profit and loss of Bitcoin holders, is used to generate buy and sell signals. These signals, denoted by green and orange indicators on the chart, are crucial for CryptoQuant’s analysis.

發生的事情是：跨越十年比特幣的價格歷史記錄的CryptoQuant圖表，整合了公司專有指數的獨特方面。該指數衡量已實現的比特幣持有人的利潤和損失，用於生成買賣信號。這些信號用圖表上的綠色和橙色指示器表示，對於加密量分析至關重要。

The latest signal, highlighted in orange for 2025, is indicating a sell signal. This type of signal, according to the firm, has typically been observed at major market cycles.

最新的信號在2025年以橙色突出顯示，表明賣出信號。根據該公司的說法，這種類型的信號通常在主要的市場週期中觀察到。

The last time such a signal appeared was in 2021, which was followed by a period of consolidation as the market digested the rally from 2020's lows.

上次出現這樣的信號是在2021年，隨著市場從2020年的低谷消化了集會，這是一個合併的時期。

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $81,550, remaining above key psychological levels despite broader market caution.

比特幣目前的交易價格約為81,550美元，儘管市場謹慎，但比特幣仍高於關鍵心理水平。

This resilience is being noticed by Nexo Dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev, who sees the market entering a crucial consolidation phase.

Nexo調度分析師Iliya Kalchev正在註意到這種韌性，他認為市場進入了關鍵的整合階段。

“Bitcoin is at a critical juncture,” Kalchev observed. “Support is holding around $82,000, but deeper levels near $73,000 may come into play depending on market sentiment.”

卡爾切夫觀察到：“比特幣處於關鍵時刻。” “支持持有約82,000美元，但根據市場情緒，更深層次的水平接近73,000美元。”

However, recent inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs suggest some institutional confidence, with $274 million in net inflows recorded on Monday alone. Yet, broader sentiment remains mixed amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

但是，最近進入美國比特幣ETF的流入表明了一些機構信心，僅週一，就記錄了2.74億美元的淨流入。然而，在宏觀經濟不確定性的情況下，更廣泛的情緒仍然是混合的。

“The renewed ETF interest could be a positive driver, but this market could still go in many directions,” Kalchev noted.

卡爾切夫指出：“新的ETF利益可能是一個積極的驅動力，但是這個市場仍然可以朝許多方向發展。”

CryptoQuant's cyclical analysis, which factors in historical trends of Bitcoin's price action, reinforces these concerns. The crypto analytics firm's observations suggest that Bitcoin tends to experience a cooling-off period of six to twelve months after major cyclical tops.

加密的周期性分析，這是比特幣價格行動的歷史趨勢中的因素加劇了這些問題。加密分析公司的觀察結果表明，比特幣在主要周期性上衣後往往會經歷六到十二個月的冷卻期。

The orange sell indicators on the historical chart, which integrate these cycles, have often been followed by periods of weak or sideways performance. This aligns with the current technical outlook, which suggests that Bitcoin might face headwinds in the next six to twelve months.

歷史圖表上的橙色賣出指標（整合了這些週期）通常是弱或側向表現的時期。這與當前的技術前景相吻合，這表明比特幣在未來六到十二個月內可能會面臨逆風。

The broader crypto market is also showing signs of caution. Kalchev pointed out that Ethereum ETH/USD is trading at around $1,890, encountering resistance at the 200-week moving average. Meanwhile, Solana SOL/USD slipped to around $124 amid broader weakness in altcoins.

更廣泛的加密市場也表現出謹慎的跡象。 Kalchev指出，以太坊ETH/USD的交易價格約為1,890美元，在200週的移動平均水平上遇到了阻力。同時，Solana Sol/USD在Altcoins的較廣泛弱點中滑到了124美元左右。

What’s Next: Amid these technical factors, the market's next moves could be influenced by Wednesday's U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision, which may affect risk asset sentiment.

接下來是：在這些技術因素中，市場的下一個舉動可能會受到週三的美國儲備率決定的影響，這可能會影響風險資產的情緒。

Signals from the crypto market suggest caution, with institutions and technical indicators suggesting a period of consolidation or even sideways to bearish movement for Bitcoin in the next six to twelve months.

加密貨幣市場的信號表明謹慎，機構和技術指標表明，在接下來的六到十二個月中，一段時間的合併甚至是側向進行比特幣的側面運動。

Also, geopolitical and macroeconomic risks, including potential U.S. tariffs and inflation, are still impacting investor confidence.

同樣，包括美國關稅和通貨膨脹在內的地緣政治和宏觀經濟風險仍在影響投資者的信心。

“This is a market in wait mode. Vigilance is key as institutional players juggle both the macro backdrop and on-chain signals,” concluded.

“這是一個處於等待模式的市場，因為機構參與者既兼顧宏觀背景和鍊子信號，又是關鍵。”