Bitcoin's BTC/USD Bull Cycle Appears to Have Come to an End, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju Claims

Bitcoin's BTC/USD bull cycle appears to have come to an end, according to Ki Young Ju, Founder and CEO of blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.

Ki Young Ju, the Founder and CEO of blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, is signaling that Bitcoin’s BTC/USD bull cycle might be coming to an end.

This comes as CryptoQuant’s PnL Index chart, which tracks cryptocurrency's price in relation to on-chain profitability, is indicating a sell signal. This, according to the firm, has historically coincided with major market turning points.

“We are likely past the bull cycle peak,” Ju stated, hinting that Bitcoin might be entering a period of consolidation or even sideways to bearish movement for the next six to twelve months.

What Happened: CryptoQuant’s chart, which spans over a decade of Bitcoin's price history, integrates a unique aspect of the firm's proprietary Index. This Index, which measures the realized profit and loss of Bitcoin holders, is used to generate buy and sell signals. These signals, denoted by green and orange indicators on the chart, are crucial for CryptoQuant’s analysis.

The latest signal, highlighted in orange for 2025, is indicating a sell signal. This type of signal, according to the firm, has typically been observed at major market cycles.

The last time such a signal appeared was in 2021, which was followed by a period of consolidation as the market digested the rally from 2020's lows.

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $81,550, remaining above key psychological levels despite broader market caution.

This resilience is being noticed by Nexo Dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev, who sees the market entering a crucial consolidation phase.

“Bitcoin is at a critical juncture,” Kalchev observed. “Support is holding around $82,000, but deeper levels near $73,000 may come into play depending on market sentiment.”

However, recent inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs suggest some institutional confidence, with $274 million in net inflows recorded on Monday alone. Yet, broader sentiment remains mixed amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

“The renewed ETF interest could be a positive driver, but this market could still go in many directions,” Kalchev noted.

CryptoQuant's cyclical analysis, which factors in historical trends of Bitcoin's price action, reinforces these concerns. The crypto analytics firm's observations suggest that Bitcoin tends to experience a cooling-off period of six to twelve months after major cyclical tops.

The orange sell indicators on the historical chart, which integrate these cycles, have often been followed by periods of weak or sideways performance. This aligns with the current technical outlook, which suggests that Bitcoin might face headwinds in the next six to twelve months.

The broader crypto market is also showing signs of caution. Kalchev pointed out that Ethereum ETH/USD is trading at around $1,890, encountering resistance at the 200-week moving average. Meanwhile, Solana SOL/USD slipped to around $124 amid broader weakness in altcoins.

What’s Next: Amid these technical factors, the market's next moves could be influenced by Wednesday's U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision, which may affect risk asset sentiment.

Signals from the crypto market suggest caution, with institutions and technical indicators suggesting a period of consolidation or even sideways to bearish movement for Bitcoin in the next six to twelve months.

Also, geopolitical and macroeconomic risks, including potential U.S. tariffs and inflation, are still impacting investor confidence.

“This is a market in wait mode. Vigilance is key as institutional players juggle both the macro backdrop and on-chain signals,” concluded.