加密首席执行官Ki Young Ju声称比特币的BTC/USD公牛周期似乎已经结束

区块链分析公司CryptoQuant的创始人兼首席执行官Ki Young Ju表示，比特币的BTC/USD公牛周期似乎已经结束。

Ki Young Ju, the Founder and CEO of blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, is signaling that Bitcoin’s BTC/USD bull cycle might be coming to an end.

区块链分析公司CryptoQuant的创始人兼首席执行官Ki Young Ju表示，比特币的BTC/USD Bull Cycle可能即将结束。

This comes as CryptoQuant’s PnL Index chart, which tracks cryptocurrency's price in relation to on-chain profitability, is indicating a sell signal. This, according to the firm, has historically coincided with major market turning points.

这就是加密量牌的PNL指数图表，该图表跟踪加密货币与链利润的价格相关的价格表明卖出信号。该公司认为，这与主要的市场转折点相吻合。

“We are likely past the bull cycle peak,” Ju stated, hinting that Bitcoin might be entering a period of consolidation or even sideways to bearish movement for the next six to twelve months.

朱说：“我们可能已经超越了公牛周期的峰。”他暗示，在接下来的六到十二个月中，比特币可能会进入一段时间的整合甚至侧面进行看跌。

What Happened: CryptoQuant’s chart, which spans over a decade of Bitcoin's price history, integrates a unique aspect of the firm's proprietary Index. This Index, which measures the realized profit and loss of Bitcoin holders, is used to generate buy and sell signals. These signals, denoted by green and orange indicators on the chart, are crucial for CryptoQuant’s analysis.

发生的事情是：跨越十年比特币的价格历史记录的CryptoQuant图表，整合了公司专有指数的独特方面。该指数衡量已实现的比特币持有人的利润和损失，用于生成买卖信号。这些信号用图表上的绿色和橙色指示器表示，对于加密量分析至关重要。

The latest signal, highlighted in orange for 2025, is indicating a sell signal. This type of signal, according to the firm, has typically been observed at major market cycles.

最新的信号在2025年以橙色突出显示，表明卖出信号。根据该公司的说法，这种类型的信号通常在主要的市场周期中观察到。

The last time such a signal appeared was in 2021, which was followed by a period of consolidation as the market digested the rally from 2020's lows.

上次出现这样的信号是在2021年，随着市场从2020年的低谷消化了集会，这是一个合并的时期。

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $81,550, remaining above key psychological levels despite broader market caution.

比特币目前的交易价格约为81,550美元，尽管市场谨慎，但比特币仍高于关键心理水平。

This resilience is being noticed by Nexo Dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev, who sees the market entering a crucial consolidation phase.

Nexo调度分析师Iliya Kalchev正在注意到这种韧性，他认为市场进入了关键的整合阶段。

“Bitcoin is at a critical juncture,” Kalchev observed. “Support is holding around $82,000, but deeper levels near $73,000 may come into play depending on market sentiment.”

卡尔切夫观察到：“比特币处于关键时刻。” “支持持有约82,000美元，但根据市场情绪，更深层次的水平接近73,000美元。”

However, recent inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs suggest some institutional confidence, with $274 million in net inflows recorded on Monday alone. Yet, broader sentiment remains mixed amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

但是，最近进入美国比特币ETF的流入表明了一些机构信心，仅周一，就记录了2.74亿美元的净流入。然而，在宏观经济不确定性的情况下，更广泛的情绪仍然是混合的。

“The renewed ETF interest could be a positive driver, but this market could still go in many directions,” Kalchev noted.

卡尔切夫指出：“新的ETF利益可能是一个积极的驱动力，但是这个市场仍然可以朝许多方向发展。”

CryptoQuant's cyclical analysis, which factors in historical trends of Bitcoin's price action, reinforces these concerns. The crypto analytics firm's observations suggest that Bitcoin tends to experience a cooling-off period of six to twelve months after major cyclical tops.

加密的周期性分析，这是比特币价格行动的历史趋势中的因素加剧了这些问题。加密分析公司的观察结果表明，比特币在主要周期性上衣后往往会经历六到十二个月的冷却期。

The orange sell indicators on the historical chart, which integrate these cycles, have often been followed by periods of weak or sideways performance. This aligns with the current technical outlook, which suggests that Bitcoin might face headwinds in the next six to twelve months.

历史图表上的橙色卖出指标（整合了这些周期）通常是弱或侧向表现的时期。这与当前的技术前景相吻合，这表明比特币在未来六到十二个月内可能会面临逆风。

The broader crypto market is also showing signs of caution. Kalchev pointed out that Ethereum ETH/USD is trading at around $1,890, encountering resistance at the 200-week moving average. Meanwhile, Solana SOL/USD slipped to around $124 amid broader weakness in altcoins.

更广泛的加密市场也表现出谨慎的迹象。 Kalchev指出，以太坊ETH/USD的交易价格约为1,890美元，在200周的移动平均水平上遇到了阻力。同时，Solana Sol/USD在Altcoins的较广泛弱点中滑到了124美元左右。

What’s Next: Amid these technical factors, the market's next moves could be influenced by Wednesday's U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision, which may affect risk asset sentiment.

接下来是：在这些技术因素中，市场的下一个举动可能会受到周三的美国储备率决定的影响，这可能会影响风险资产的情绪。

Signals from the crypto market suggest caution, with institutions and technical indicators suggesting a period of consolidation or even sideways to bearish movement for Bitcoin in the next six to twelve months.

加密货币市场的信号表明谨慎，机构和技术指标表明，在接下来的六到十二个月中，一段时间的合并甚至是侧向进行比特币的侧面运动。

Also, geopolitical and macroeconomic risks, including potential U.S. tariffs and inflation, are still impacting investor confidence.

同样，包括美国关税和通货膨胀在内的地缘政治和宏观经济风险仍在影响投资者的信心。

“This is a market in wait mode. Vigilance is key as institutional players juggle both the macro backdrop and on-chain signals,” concluded.

“这是一个处于等待模式的市场，因为机构参与者既兼顾宏观背景和链子信号，又是关键。”