比特币（BTC）价格未能再次尝试以85,000美元的价格打破电阻

比特币（BTC）的价格未能在3月17日以85,000美元的价格打破抵抗力。自3月12日以来，BTC价格每天形成了每日蜡烛高点在84,000美元至85,200美元之间，但无法关闭84,600美元以上。

Bitcoin (BTC) price failed another attempt at breaking above resistance at $85,000 on Friday, remaining in "no man's land" on the lower time frame (LTF) of the 1-hour chart.

比特币（BTC）的价格未能在周五以85,000美元的价格打破电阻，在1小时图表的较低时间范围（LTF）上仍保留在“无人土地”中。

Bitcoin 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

比特币1小时图表。资料来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

The term "no man's land" in trading markets defines a price range where movements are characterized by uncertainty, significant risk, and dynamic tension due to external events and conflicting market sentiment.

贸易市场中的“无人土地”一词定义了一个价格范围，在该价格范围内，由于外部事件和市场情绪冲突而导致的不确定性，巨大风险和动态张力为特征。

As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is set to take place on Monday and Tuesday, markets could see volatile price swings toward critical BTC price levels over the next few days.

由于联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议定于周一和周二举行，因此市场可能会在接下来的几天内看到朝着关键BTC价格水平的波动价格波动。

The critical announcement on the interest rate will be made on Tuesday at 2 pm ET.

有关利率的关键公告将于周二下午2点美国东部时间。

99% chance interest rates won’t change

99％的机会利率不会改变

According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 99% chance that the current interest rates will remain between 4.25% and 4.50%, leaving just a 1% probability of a 0.25% rate cut.

根据CME的FedWatch工具，目前的利率将保持在4.25％和4.50％之间，只有99％的可能性，仅降低了0.25％的利率。

CME's FedWatchtool interest rate expectations. Source: CME Group

CME的FedWatchTool利率期望。资料来源：CME组

However, a common market belief is that any bearish price action from unchanged interest rates is already priced in.

但是，一个普遍的市场信念是，未改变利率的任何看跌价格行动都已被定价。

Related: Bitcoin price fails to go parabolic as the US Dollar Index (DXY) falls — Why?

相关：由于美元指数（DXY）跌倒，比特币价格无法抛弃 - 为什么？

Therefore, the market is focused on Jerome Powell, the US Fed chair's speech during the FOMC speech. With respect to the recent data, Powell's stance is likely to be hawkish. The assessment is based on the following points:

因此，市场集中在美国美联储主席在FOMC演讲中的讲话杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）。关于最近的数据，鲍威尔的立场可能是霍克什。评估基于以下几点：

Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains at 2.8%, which is still above the Fed's 2% primary target and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index stood at 2.5%-2.6%. While CPI came in lower than expected last week, it does not encourage immediate rate cuts.

消费者价格指数（CPI）保持在2.8％，这仍然高于美联储2％的主要目标，个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数为2.5％-2.6％。尽管CPI的速度低于上周的预期，但它不鼓励立即降低降低税率。

Unemployment data remains low at 4.1%, with an annual GDP growth of 2.3% in Q4 2024, indicating the economy does not need immediate stimulus.

失业数据仍较低，为4.1％，第四季度2024年的GDP年龄为2.3％，表明经济不需要立即刺激。

Meanwhile, Polymarket now says there's a 100% chance that the US Federal Reserve will conclude quantitative tightening (QT) by the end of April, which would boost the odds of a rate cut as early as this summer.

同时，Polymarket现在表示，到4月底，美国美联储有100％的机会得出定量收紧（QT）的可能性，这将提高今年夏天降低税率的几率。