Bitcoin (BTC) price fails another attempt at breaking above resistance at $85,000

Bitcoin's (BTC) price failed another attempt at breaking above resistance at $85,000 on March 17. Since March 12, BTC price formed daily candle highs between $84,000 and $85,200, but has been unable to close above $84,600.

Bitcoin (BTC) price failed another attempt at breaking above resistance at $85,000 on Friday, remaining in "no man's land" on the lower time frame (LTF) of the 1-hour chart.

Bitcoin 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The term "no man's land" in trading markets defines a price range where movements are characterized by uncertainty, significant risk, and dynamic tension due to external events and conflicting market sentiment.

As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is set to take place on Monday and Tuesday, markets could see volatile price swings toward critical BTC price levels over the next few days.

The critical announcement on the interest rate will be made on Tuesday at 2 pm ET.

99% chance interest rates won’t change

According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 99% chance that the current interest rates will remain between 4.25% and 4.50%, leaving just a 1% probability of a 0.25% rate cut.

CME's FedWatchtool interest rate expectations. Source: CME Group

However, a common market belief is that any bearish price action from unchanged interest rates is already priced in.

Related: Bitcoin price fails to go parabolic as the US Dollar Index (DXY) falls — Why?

Therefore, the market is focused on Jerome Powell, the US Fed chair's speech during the FOMC speech. With respect to the recent data, Powell's stance is likely to be hawkish. The assessment is based on the following points:

Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains at 2.8%, which is still above the Fed's 2% primary target and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index stood at 2.5%-2.6%. While CPI came in lower than expected last week, it does not encourage immediate rate cuts.

Unemployment data remains low at 4.1%, with an annual GDP growth of 2.3% in Q4 2024, indicating the economy does not need immediate stimulus.

Meanwhile, Polymarket now says there's a 100% chance that the US Federal Reserve will conclude quantitative tightening (QT) by the end of April, which would boost the odds of a rate cut as early as this summer.