比特幣（BTC）的價格在市場希望恢復平衡時的價格超過81,000美元

加密貨幣市場正在尋求重新獲得平衡，在明天的美國通貨膨脹報告之前，比特幣在81,000美元之前彈跳。由Omkar Godbole。

output: The crypto market is showing signs of resilience, with bitcoin recovering above $81,000 ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. inflation report.

輸出：加密市場顯示出彈性的跡象，在明天的美國通貨膨脹報告之前，比特幣在81,000美元以上恢復了。

The recovery, largely seen in layer-1 and layer-2 coins as well as gaming tokens from their overnight lows, comes amid indications of "peak fear" on Wall Street, a dynamic typically observed at market bottoms.

恢復在很大程度上是在第1層和第2層硬幣中出現的，以及從其過夜低點中的遊戲令牌，這表明華爾街“峰值恐懼”的跡象，這是一種動態的，通常在市場底部觀察到。

Interestingly, the spread between one- and six-month futures tied to the VIX, Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, crossed above zero on Monday, signaling a rare positive reading and reflecting expectations for greater volatility in the short-term than six months out. Volmex’s Bitcoin volatility index shows a similar inversion, although that is more common in the crypto market.

有趣的是，週一，華爾街所謂的恐懼量表與VIX相關的一個月和六個月期貨之間的蔓延在周一越過零以上，這表明罕見的積極閱讀，並反映了短期內對六個月的波動性更大的期望。 Volmex的比特幣波動率指數顯示出類似的反轉，儘管這在加密貨幣市場中更為常見。

“Is the worst behind us? It’s impossible to say. However, the risk-reward for entering long positions in U.S. stocks is improving. The VIX index for volatility is now significantly inverted, meaning near-term contracts are priced higher than long-term ones. This is an important sign of stress, but it can also indicate extremes in sentiment.” Ilan Solot, senior global market strategist at Marex Solutions, said in an email.

“我們身後最糟糕嗎？不可能說。但是，在美國股票中長期職位的風險回報正在改善。 VIX的波動性指數現在已大大倒轉，這意味著近期合同的價格高於長期合同。這是壓力的重要跡象，但也可以表明情緒中的極端。” Marex Solutions全球高級市場策略師Ilan Solot在一封電子郵件中說。

Meanwhile, bullish positioning in the yen appears stretched, suggesting the haven currency’s rally may soon lose steam, potentially providing relief to risk assets in the process.

同時，日元中的看漲位置似乎延伸了，這表明避風港的集會可能很快就會失去動力，有可能在此過程中減輕風險資產。

The Truflation U.S. Inflation Index, which offers a daily, real-time measurement of inflation based on data from over 30 sources and 13 million price points, has dropped to 1.35%, extending a decline from February’s high of over 2%. This trend hints at the progress on inflation the Federal Reserve is considering before potentially cutting rates.

Truflation US通貨膨脹指數根據來自30多個來源和1300萬個價格點的數據提供了每日實時的通貨膨脹量值，已下降到1.35％，從2月的高點延長了2％以上。這種趨勢暗示了通貨膨脹的進展，美聯儲在潛在降低利率之前正在考慮。

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show a month-over-month increase of 0.3% for February. This would be a notable deceleration from January’s concerning 0.5%. A soft reading could validate traders’ expectations for rapid rate cuts starting in June, possibly leading to renewed risk-on sentiment.

週三，勞工統計局預計將顯示2月份的月份增長0.3％。這將是一月份的0.5％的顯著減速。輕柔的閱讀可以驗證交易者對6月份開始快速降低的期望，這可能會導致新的風險情緒。

However, it’s crucial to note that Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated the Fed is awaiting clarity on President Trump’s policies before making its next move, suggesting that soft CPI data alone might not be enough.

但是，至關重要的是，杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）主席表示，在採取下一步行動之前，美聯儲正在等待特朗普總統的政策，這表明僅軟CPI數據可能還不夠。

On the other hand, a hotter-than-expected CPI print could derail recovery prospects, potentially setting the stage for a deeper slide in bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Some analysts, like Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, predict a pullback to the $70,000 to $74,000 range.

另一方面，高於預期的CPI印刷可能會使恢復前景脫軌，這有可能為比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的更深層次滑動奠定基礎。 FXPRO的高級市場分析師Alex Kuptsikevich等一些分析師預測，回調了70,000美元至74,000美元。

“A bearish pattern persists on the daily timeframes, indicating a strengthening sell-off after failing to hold above the 200-day moving average. The scenario of a pullback to the $70,000 to $74,000 range still looks most probable.” Kuptsikevich said in an email.

“每日時間範圍內的看跌模式一直存在，這表明未能保持超過200天移動平均線後的拋售增強。回調到70,000美元至74,000美元的情況仍然看起來最可能。” Kuptsikevich在一封電子郵件中說。